helps to review at Derby time

[Tim Y]

Each grouping will have the winner, place and show horses.

Each horse will have it's last three lines with the following total energy, %
median, e/l true speed and deceleration. The idea is to observe the maturation
and/or development of these types that you might again find this year. NOTE how
few even hit the board with very high decelerations i.e >100

Charistmatic
164.16 67.1 -21.2 54.6 98.2
160.78 67.7 -13.9 53.4 95.2
162.47 68 -11 53.9 93.9
Menfee
162.92 67.6 -15.4 54.2 95.8
161.64 67.4 -17.2 53.9 96.2
162.62 76.5 -12.1 54.2 95.9
Cat Thief
162.94 68 -8.7 54.1 94.1
161.96 67.6 -14.9 53.8 95.8
161.66 67.6 -12.1 53.8 94.9

Fusaichi Pegasus
163.70 67.6 -13.7 54.5 95.5
162.49 67.8 -10 54.2 94.2
162.27 67.7 -11.5 54.1 94.8
Aptitude
162.64 67.3 -21.1 54.1 97.1
163.15 67.3 -16.4 54.5 96.3
161.14 67.5 -18.7 53.7 96.1
Impeachment
162.78 67.2 -25.5 53.9 98.5
162.55 66.9 -26.9 54.0 99.4
162.00 66.2 -45.1 53.7 103.1

Monarchos
163.41 67.9 -12.1 54.2 98.7
162.80 67.9 =11.5 54.2 94.6
162.47 67.4 -16.7 54.1 99.6
Invisible Ink
161.61 68.3 -4.2 53.7 92.5
160.80 68.3 -4.1 53.5 92.4
162.80 67.5 -15.5 54.1 96.1
Congaree
163.64 68.2 -4.5 54.1 92.8
162.88 67.5 -14.8 54.3 95.8
162.91 67.9 -8.0 54.3 93.9

War Emblem
162.82 67.5 -23.0 54.2 98.7
160.12 68.7 -11.5 53.9 94.7
160.13 67.3 -6.6 53.6 93.4
Proud
162.68 67.5 -15.5 54.1 96.2
160.42 68.7 0.5 53.1 90.7
160.13 67.3 -17.9 53.5 96.5
Perfect Drift
162.26 67.4 -16.4 54.2 96.2
163 37 68.2 -6.9 54.1 93.1
161.85 67.4 -16.7 54.3 96.5
FUNNY CIDE's is pending
Giacomo
161.78 67.7 -16.3 53.7 95.8
163.16 67.9 -9.7 54.2 94.6
161.69 68.5 -2.9 53.7 91.6
Afleet Alex
162.12 66.5 -28.3 54.1 100.4
159.50 68.0 -7.5 53.2 93.4
AA was sick here
161.25 67.3 -19.5 53.8 96.8
Closing Argument
161.29 69.0 3.5 53.3 89.8
this one ran the race of his life and knocked him out all Summer
161.22 67.8 -10.0 53.7 94.1
160.33 68.7 3.3 53.5 89.8

Smarty Jones
162.83 67.6 -12.5 54.3 95.3
163.17 66.5 -27.5 54.5 100.4
162.1 67.7 -9.3 54.2 94.6
Lion Heart
163.42 68.0 -6.0 54.5 93.4
162.17 68.0 -5.8 54.1 93.1
162.55 67.9 -9.0 54.1 94.1
Imperialism
161.88 67.6 -16.8 53.7 95.8
162.80 67.6 -17.0 54.1 95.8
162.87 67.2 =24.2 54.1 97.9

Barbaro (This was the year the speed rating chnaged)
165.03 67.7 -12.0 54.8 95.4
164.93 68.6 1.0 54.7 91.3
162.80 65.8 =38.0 54.3 103.7 (turf)
Steppenwolfer
162.91 68.6 -4.1 53.9 91.7
165.26 66.9 -21.8 55.0 98.9
162.45 66.7 -26.2 54.3 99.3
Bluegrass
165.01 69.0 6.3 54.7 89.4
166.17 66.7 -25.0 55.2 100.1
165.24 67.1 -19.2 55.1 98.0

Street Sense
163.68 64.6 -54.7 54.6 110.1
This was the first Blue Grass on polytrack
166.93 66.7 -26.5 55.6 100.2
166.41 66.3 -31.6 55.6 101.5
Hard Spun
164.26 67.6 -11.4 54.7 95.2
165.05 67.8 -10.5 54.7 95.0
165.67 68.2 -3.0 55.1 92.8
Curlin
167.62 67.1 -17.5 55.9 97.8
166.95 67.4 -14.0 55.5 96.7
164.28 67.4 -14.0 54.8 96.2

Big Brown
166.78 68.2 -1.0 55.6 92.4
166.0 68.1 -3.3 55.4 93.0
TURF
163.79 65.9 -35.0 54.7 103.1
Eight Belles
166.79 66.8 -23.0 55.5 99.6
165.09 66.6 -26.3 55.0 100.4
162.52 66.6 -23.7 54.6 98.8
Denis of Cork
163.79 66.8 -23.0 54.4 99.0
165.52 67.5 -18.2 55.0 96.2
159.82 66.6 -31.0 53.2 100.4 (Fair Grounds)

Look for improvement. If a colt is out of balance for style they can make up for
it by total energy: Barbaro, Hard Spun or the Brown one.

I will try to find Funny Cide

[Tim Y]

I found no higher energy coming into this race than Curlin's. I investigated Secretariat's years ago and, without a variant, he came in around 166.6

[Bill Lyster]

Tim:

Thanks, just what I was looking for

[Tim Y]

First let me say I looked at this one and then let the "class conscious, OLD hat mental images" cloud what I reviewed in the previous posts. I would never have bet this one, BUT I have bet many other races that were similar. What were the parameters I listed and tell me what this one's ENERGY DISTRIBUTION, and NOT TOTAL ENERGY said about this one is a field of CLOSERS. Disregard how he ran Saturday and JUST look at the energy profile this gelding presented.

The e/l's are right in line and given how extremely fast early that last line was, the jump in e/l is characteristic of a pace that was just too quick.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

First let me say I looked at this one and then let the "class conscious, OLD hat mental images" cloud what I reviewed in the previous posts. I would never have bet this one, BUT I have bet many other races that were similar. What were the parameters I listed and tell me what this one's ENERGY DISTRIBUTION, and NOT TOTAL ENERGY said about this one is a field of CLOSERS. Disregard how he ran Saturday and JUST look at the energy profile this gelding presented.

The e/l's are right in line and given how extremely fast early that last line was, the jump in e/l is characteristic of a pace that was just too quick.

What ? You didn't load up on him underneath ?

[Houndog]

I think many things happened on Derby Day that may have contributed to the outcome.

#1 Late Scratch - I Want Revenge
#2 Several Horses not running their races for whatever reason (Friesan Fire; Dunkirk)
#3 Was the original plan to hold back on Mine That Bird and come late. I think after the bad break Borel wisely changed tactics.

This is to take nothing away from the winner or anyone who had the horse. My point is that changing tactics may have actually helped this horse.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Houndog

I think many things happened on Derby Day that may have contributed to the outcome.

#1 Late Scratch - I Want Revenge
#2 Several Horses not running their races for whatever reason (Friesan Fire; Dunkirk)
#3 Was the original plan to hold back on Mine That Bird and come late. I think after the bad break Borel wisely changed tactics.

This is to take nothing away from the winner or anyone who had the horse. My point is that changing tactics may have actually helped this horse.

agree in all that chaos and with the bulk of the field a late running bunch, chaos prevailed

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I found no higher energy coming into this race than Curlin's. I investigated Secretariat's years ago and, without a variant, he came in around 166.6

The Belmont Park racetrack of 1973 was revamped from what was for many years one of average speed, although still quicker than that of Aqueduct. From opening week in late May and on throughout the meet, long-standing track records fell my the wayside, many of them broken within days and some within even races.

About 10-15 track and stakes records were set that very first week, if memory serves me well. Even as late as in the Fall of 1973, Secretariat would set the still-standing mark for 1 1 -8 miles (1:45 and so) winning the Marlboro Cup Invitational -- a record also set by a champion, Desert Vixen, winning the Grade 1 Beldame Stakes. Her track record stood for all of about 30 minutes, which was the race just prior to the Marlboro Cup run on Sept. 15, 1973.

Secretariat's 1 1-2 mile track record set in the historic Belmont Stakes was three full seconds faster than the previous mark -- set in 1957 when Gallant Man won his Belmont Stakes.

Tim, making a variant to adjust Secretariat's energy profile in the Belmont is probably tough but if you can accept making the track variant as fast you can and still 'live' with such a quick variant, it will work out just dandy, I am sure.

[Tim Y]

I am well aware of that track in New york as no less than 15 track records were set in 1973

[Vinnie]

Mike (Houndog):

I hope that you are doing well? I totally agree with you. The fact that I want Revenge was missing and the track was a sloppy mess, in my opinion, I believe that essentially all horses were having a tough time with the sloppy conditions, although Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy all factored as some thought they might at races end. Add all of this in with the fact that the inside rail was very biased and the Borel Factor on the right horse at the right time with the Incredible Trip that he took him through and "what else can be said"! Will he ever again be able to duplicate that incredible turn of foot under somewhat normal conditions? I don't know, but, I think that we will be finding out soon enough. I look forward to seeing his (MTB's) next few races, that's for sure.

The Perfect Storm is Right!!

Take Care and Good Skill.

Vinnie