Review of TAM 4th 12.19.12

[For The Lead]

Tampa Bay Downs has been open since December 1st. In other words, it has had just 7 racing days since it opened. When I was a youngster, the old-timers use to tell me not to play a track that just opened until the horses have had a chance to run across the track at least one time and preferably two times. Why? The first time across the track, the horse might be “getting use to it”. The second time it will likely run to its’ current form. If the horse doesn’t show anything in two attempts across the track, you can then make a determination about the horse.

The other reason to wait is, at the beginning of a new meet, in many cases, horses will be shipping in from numerous tracks throughout the country. Allowing them to race against each other a couple of times will help the handicapper get a feel for how these horses from “all over the place”, match up against each other.

One of the hardest things to do in handicapping is find a good race to play. A race where you will be comfortable that you can make a good analysis of each horse and that the race will run true to form. “True to form” does NOT mean that the favorite should win.

So with all that in mind, let’s look at the 4th race from Tampa Bay Downs today, which is a 7 furlong race on the dirt.

First I will post the PP’s for every horse in the race.
Following that, I will comment.