Bets when the Rankings are big - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 11-30-2009, 04:34 PM

This happened two times this last weekend. Once at Churchill and again at Hollywood. The favorites were shown by RDSS to have large advantages over their fields and the odds on the actual favorite were not too low. First the info from CD. In both cases there were several tandem competitors with the big number horse.

Lost Aptitude had just beaten several of the same horses pretty handily. One of the members suggested some distrust of the horse's last line. When I looked at the line I saw what I would describe as gradual improvement. The first screen shot shows a 103 SR in the first route attempt on soft turf, followed by a 99 SR on yielding turf and then a 107 on firm turf. I did not view the 99 as a regression because the DTV of 34 wasn't anywhere near in line with the other two variants, plus the horse competed well on that off track.

I bet Lost Aptitude to win and did not have the exotics, but this is where it gets interesting. If you look at the tandem races see that the 3 and 7 were close to each other in tandem 1 and that the 4, 10 and Lost Aptitude were close to each in the yielding turf of tandem 2. There were no common horses in the two tandems but LA improved from race to race.

If you look at the bottom panel you see a 6 point advantage in adjusted SR and more than 1 point advantage in TE. The BL/BL screen shot shows an 8.2 point advantage after I put in the 9 off his losing Breeders Cup and very sustained loss. Off the Segments screen you could probably make a case to eliminate the 9 from place consideration in the interest of controlling bet size, as the horse showed 19.2/14.6/10.9 lengths back (5th best).

So the plan for exotics was to key the 1 on top with the tandem runners that were close to each other. See the Result chart for how they ran and the prices.

Bill Lyster · 11-30-2009, 04:57 PM

The 2nd race was yesterday's Hollywood Derby, only this time two horses were dominant. The winner's PPs are shown first with the tandem screen showing Battle of Hastings just second and the 11 and 8 well beaten but fairly close to each other.

The 2nd screen shot shows the last four tandems from Battle of Hastings, but note that in the last two BOH's SR improved dramatically from the low 100's to mid teens and then again to the 123 level. The 8 and 11 while still losing, were getting a little better as well and their SR's were now in the teens.

The 1, 4 and 6 were put into the mix off of their best race with my choice of not using the highest rating for the 6 based on the slow first fractions of that race, 25 and change, and the fact that the horse had run well against a fast 6f time going 9.5 furlongs which is more like today's race distance.

You could have nailed a $599 tri by keying the top two with the 5 other horses for $10 total and with a little luck get the super as well. Even $0.10 supers paid well.

Note that the BL screen shows the top two at 21.5 and 19 and the next best horse at 12.3. This is pretty big separation IMO and worthy of boxing the top two and hunting for bigger profits in the exotics.

Interested in any comments or questions.

Lets find some nice one's next weekend somewhere.

Bill

Bill V. · 12-01-2009, 09:22 AM

Excellent work Bill

I suggest now that you posted this all our library members open up and read that tandem manual .
If you are an exacta player,
you will read how much tandem race works in getting exactas

raceman5 · 12-01-2009, 09:53 AM

job Bill, you contribute some great info on this site, but i would have to say, to this point this is your finest hour. A great picture on how to look at SR when choosing lines.

Bob

clore1030 · 12-02-2009, 12:17 PM

Nice stuff Bill. I've noted and mentioned here previously that when I have a horse that's got a 20% or more advantage in BL score, it's only the odds that keep me from wagering. On such candidates, I'll gladly take 8/5 whereas my usual barometer is 5/2.

Especially if the horse has a two-point advantage on EPR, in sprints it's like the key to the bank.

Bill Lyster · 12-02-2009, 12:56 PM

FYI --

The Lost Aptitude race showed LA with 6 pt !! advantage and the Holly Derby the top two had 3 pt advantage over the rest.

11-30-2009, 04:34 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Bets when the Rankings are big This happened two times this last weekend. Once at Churchill and again at Hollywood. The favorites were shown by RDSS to have large advantages over their fields and the odds on the actual favorite were not too low. First the info from CD. In both cases there were several tandem competitors with the big number horse. Lost Aptitude had just beaten several of the same horses pretty handily. One of the members suggested some distrust of the horse's last line. When I looked at the line I saw what I would describe as gradual improvement. The first screen shot shows a 103 SR in the first route attempt on soft turf, followed by a 99 SR on yielding turf and then a 107 on firm turf. I did not view the 99 as a regression because the DTV of 34 wasn't anywhere near in line with the other two variants, plus the horse competed well on that off track. I bet Lost Aptitude to win and did not have the exotics, but this is where it gets interesting. If you look at the tandem races see that the 3 and 7 were close to each other in tandem 1 and that the 4, 10 and Lost Aptitude were close to each in the yielding turf of tandem 2. There were no common horses in the two tandems but LA improved from race to race. If you look at the bottom panel you see a 6 point advantage in adjusted SR and more than 1 point advantage in TE. The BL/BL screen shot shows an 8.2 point advantage after I put in the 9 off his losing Breeders Cup and very sustained loss. Off the Segments screen you could probably make a case to eliminate the 9 from place consideration in the interest of controlling bet size, as the horse showed 19.2/14.6/10.9 lengths back (5th best). So the plan for exotics was to key the 1 on top with the tandem runners that were close to each other. See the Result chart for how they ran and the prices. Attached Images

11-30-2009, 04:57 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Bets when you have big advantage - part 2 The 2nd race was yesterday's Hollywood Derby, only this time two horses were dominant. The winner's PPs are shown first with the tandem screen showing Battle of Hastings just second and the 11 and 8 well beaten but fairly close to each other. The 2nd screen shot shows the last four tandems from Battle of Hastings, but note that in the last two BOH's SR improved dramatically from the low 100's to mid teens and then again to the 123 level. The 8 and 11 while still losing, were getting a little better as well and their SR's were now in the teens. The 1, 4 and 6 were put into the mix off of their best race with my choice of not using the highest rating for the 6 based on the slow first fractions of that race, 25 and change, and the fact that the horse had run well against a fast 6f time going 9.5 furlongs which is more like today's race distance. You could have nailed a $599 tri by keying the top two with the 5 other horses for $10 total and with a little luck get the super as well. Even $0.10 supers paid well. Note that the BL screen shows the top two at 21.5 and 19 and the next best horse at 12.3. This is pretty big separation IMO and worthy of boxing the top two and hunting for bigger profits in the exotics. Interested in any comments or questions. Lets find some nice one's next weekend somewhere. Bill Attached Images

12-01-2009, 09:22 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Tandem manual Excellent work Bill I suggest now that you posted this all our library members open up and read that tandem manual . If you are an exacta player, you will read how much tandem race works in getting exactas

12-01-2009, 09:53 AM	#4
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Fantastic job Bill, you contribute some great info on this site, but i would have to say, to this point this is your finest hour. A great picture on how to look at SR when choosing lines. Bob

12-02-2009, 12:56 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	TPR for these races FYI -- The Lost Aptitude race showed LA with 6 pt !! advantage and the Holly Derby the top two had 3 pt advantage over the rest.

12-02-2009, 12:17 PM	#5
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Nice stuff Bill. I've noted and mentioned here previously that when I have a horse that's got a 20% or more advantage in BL score, it's only the odds that keep me from wagering. On such candidates, I'll gladly take 8/5 whereas my usual barometer is 5/2. Especially if the horse has a two-point advantage on EPR, in sprints it's like the key to the bank.

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