Question on when to NOT use last line

[sq764]

So what is the opinion on NOT using the last line? I'll give 2 scenarios and would be curious as to some opinions from the veterans:

Scenario 1: Horse's last 3 or 4 races are routes and this is a sprint, but the speed ratings are in line with his prior sprints.. Would you use the last line? the last sprint line?

Scenario 2: Horse's last 4 races are SR of 82, 79, 81 and last race is 64.. Would you use the 64? Consider maybe he's tailing off? Or would you revert to 2 back because that is more representative?

[mikesal57]

sq764..

You can probably dream up tons of scenarios ...
The best way to learn is to actually find one and post it for us to comment..
and then save it for reference...

believe me..I went through this too and drove my friend nuts

mike

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by sq764

So what is the opinion on NOT using the last line? I'll give 2 scenarios and would be curious as to some opinions from the veterans:

Scenario 1: Horse's last 3 or 4 races are routes and this is a sprint, but the speed ratings are in line with his prior sprints.. Would you use the last line? the last sprint line?

Scenario 2: Horse's last 4 races are SR of 82, 79, 81 and last race is 64.. Would you use the 64? Consider maybe he's tailing off? Or would you revert to 2 back because that is more representative?

Read this.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8018

[froggy]

This race closed out a bad 20 race cycle.
I also had half of the $280 double.
One has to belive in the program and in your own handicapping.
Otherwise you fail.

[noddub62]

yes based on the horse being on the lead at the first two calls the last two races.

hope you had a great Christmas.

Bud

[polambi]

I promise, this will be my first and last question about paceline selection.

Here is my question: the red dot or the green dot in a paceline ( circled in my attachments)....Do they represent the best lines?
In the example...the paceline has a red dot next to the final time, although the horse finished last in that race. Should I pick the line with the red dot or the one where the horse finished in a better place, which is line 1?
Thanks for any input or clarification...

[Ted Craven]

Polambi,

Those coloured squared next to final time co-relate with Pace of Race. If you display the Velocity screen (PoR view), or the Adjusted screen for the horse, you will see similar rankings for those races. The horse did nothing against that pace of race, and I would never use the 2nd line, rather I would use the 1st line (recency, made a move against the pace, finished in top half, odds 3.4 -1 - class of race more its style).

I recommend that you ignore those Pace of Race markers (actually, turn them off in your Configure screen: uncheck 'Show Paceline indicator'). They were an experiment which has been superseded, and I have eliminated them in RDSS 2.0. Instead, use Perceptor Total on the Primary screen as a gauge of paceline strength (e.g. best of last 3 comparable distance structure and surface).

Here is the race, and results:





If ever a race begged to be passed, it is this one! Young horses with dissimilar pacelines to today (short sprints, or routes), several recent maidens trying N2L conditions, a standout favourite ...

BTW - please don't make it your last question about paceline selection! Questions in contest of a race are the best kind. Sometimes questions can get too hypothetical.

Good luck with the rest of the CT card tonight!

Ted

[polambi]

Hi Ted,
Thank you very much for your quick reply. I feel so much better now. I am amazed at the efficiency of RDSS and grateful for the opportunity to have it in my arsenal.
Have a great weekend