100 race report

[froggy]

In going over the last 100 races at Aqu. that I figured and wagered on,
I noticed some interesting Stats.
Now I haven't gone over everything but this is what I've found out so far.
I only keep the top five in total energy in the program.
6 winners were not included in the top five.
From the remaining 94 races:
4 not in the top 3 VDC
22 not in top LPR
21% 1st in total energy
25% 2nd total energy
25% 3rd total energy
15% 4th total energy
9% 5th total energy
ROI $1.32

Here is an example where this information would have been helpful.
The odds on the #1 horse were 1/1 so I bet the #7 and #4
The # 8 won and paid $25
Judging from my figures you can guess where the 1/1 favorite ran.
If your horse is not in the top 3 LPR, top 3 energy and top 3 VDC, call me and I'll book your bet.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by froggy

In going over the last 100 races at Aqu.
21% 1st in total energy
25% 2nd total energy
25% 3rd total energy

Frog
your above quoted stats are amazing! They are in line with stats for favorites and your numbers have PRICE horses factored in.

Testimony to:
1) YOU foremost as the "applier" or "manager" of everything regarding racing. line selection,contenders,record keeping etc etc.

2) Your tool of choice. This case being RDSS

You are in a position to slaughter this track. STRIKE while the iron is hot.

Very nice work Frog

[froggy]

Richie,
The part that was amazing to me was that so few winners that weren't in the top five of total energy.
A lot of the time I should have had the winner but I didn't as in the race example shown where I bet the wrong horses.
I'm certain that I'm the only one that ever happens to.
A lot (a whole lot) of days at New York it's five out of seven but then some days it's only three out of seven.
As far as keeping records, its easy to keep the printouts of BL/BL and jot down the race results as they happen before they are put into a loose leaf book.
I'm not smart enough to do the match up, though I try.
But to keep it almost mechanical:
The procedure is simple.
Select a pace line for every horse.
Goto the energy screen and eliminate down to five and ties.
Goto BL/BL and eyeball the corollaries.
Wager.
I have stopped trying to do wagercapping as 90% of the winners are in the top 3 VDC.
Its just 60/40 on my top two.
My big loosing day on 7 Feb was the best thing that happened to me (look at my post on that day under selections).
I took a few days off and went over my records and have come back fighting.
Now I am not trying to crush them but just keep grinding out the profits as that is what the methodology allows me to do.
Now I'll take a short price because my records say that I can.
The real key for me is in pace line selection.
For that here is what I do.
"It's so easy even a caveman can do it."

[clore1030]

I'll print out your findings and keep them handy.

[Ted Craven]

Froggy,

In reading your report, the thing which strikes me is that having your wagering records and a few major factor statistics at hand, gives you the confidence to just go ahead and make the choices without agonizing too much. Maybe that sounds trite, but with an analysis method and paceline selection guidelines provided by the Methodology (some of them 25 years old, for god's sake) - what's left except to work the system. It sounds precisely like what you re now doing.

I realized some time ago for myself that record keeping was something I hated to do, not just for my handicapping and wagering, but for my business bookeeping and personal financial recordkeeping. (Before I was a programmer, I was a bookkeeper, so there's fodder for therapy...). I procrastinate, leave things to the last moment or beyond, agonize while doing it, whine, moan, complain, etc. I should hire someone to do it for me but I'm too cheap or too much of a control freak, and my wife refuses to do my handicapping record keeping. So I do it in fits and starts, as required.

My only salvation, currently, is what you describe above, which I think I have internalized and ceased to argue with myself about (Total Energy, V/DC, BL/BL and a few other situational corollaries). Just FYI, from the very beginning of my RDSS project, I've wanted to finally kill that bookeeping demon by getting the software to do it all for me, which is still my dream and intention for Version 1.0 (or...maybe 1.1). In the meantime, I derive great enjoyment and admire droolingly those who keep their records well, or who even enjoy it (sickos).

Doc wrote me recently, commenting positively on RDSS' progress, but warned me about over-complexity of readouts, that it would baffle some folks and stymie their focus on the 'can't lose' readouts, print-outs of which he said he enclosed but forgot to **. I'm pretty sure he's referring to the Validator BL/BL screen and/or VDC readout (though I'll check, just in case) which is exactly what you're using to simplify your approach to grinding out your profits.

Using your approach, while you may not know or much care who won the Santa Anita Handicap, or Shams Stakes, or which trainer or jockey does well over Polytrack, or where and when the rail is dead, etc, your steadiness of returns, relatively small drawdowns when they occur, and confidence in your method because your records are in your face all the time - thus it's easy to gradually increase your bet size as a propostion of your banroll; all these things make that section of life devoted to this wonderful hobby (or profession) the pleasure it's supposed to be, rather than the love/hate death-match and marginal time-and-money-waster it is (unfortunately) for some.

You are an inspiration to me (and to my mom, by the way, who is just learning this game and is probably about your age, and loves your avatar and progress reports.)

Hop, hop!

Ted


**Reminds me of the perhaps apocryphal story of 'Fermat's Last Theorem' not scribbled in the margins of a dinner menu, then lost for 200 years - Google it, rather amusing...