Keeneland Friday 10/14- TM 101 Race Class - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-12-2011, 04:13 PM

Here is the 8th from Keeneland on Friday going 6.5f on the Polytrack. Very best of luck/skill to all

RichieP · 10-12-2011, 04:15 PM

...

RichieP · 10-12-2011, 04:17 PM

,,.

Bill Lyster · 10-12-2011, 07:30 PM

Lots of speed but the best is 7, the FPLR, at 22-45.1-57.5, a race in which this horse was 3rd in a Grade 3 race. Best placing in highest class race in this field.

The 2 has run some fast internal fractions competitive with the 7 and has shown it can win from 4th or 5th. Has also shown tendency to press too closely and so two possible outcomes; the 2 burns out from running too close or the 2 pressures the 7 into faltering (note the 7 had lead in last but did not win at that level. Today he should sit behind all the speed and hope to catch the 7.

The 1 from line 5, a 100K stake showed ability to close against faster paces, and beat half the field that day. Always have trouble backing a Martian

primary pick is the 7, next the 2 and I will box the 7-2-1 and look for some good odds in my top three choices.

Bill

mikesal57 · 10-12-2011, 11:36 PM

2 & 11 for me

RichieP · 10-13-2011, 06:14 PM

My eval lines and contenders.

Something about the #11 hitting my eye, last was a 6f bid against quick spilts at Del and shows strong closes deep in pps as a 2yr old against quick fractions. Solid poly 5f work, play at 6/1 or higher.

Tossing the ml fav #7 as he has not won on either turf or poly. If he wins so be it.

RAW

Very best of luck/skill everyone

Heading to Vermont for the weekend after work tomorrow with Karen to see the fall foliage and hang at a quaint

bed and breakfast (touring a winery there too! MMMM)

raceman5 · 10-14-2011, 08:49 AM

7-6-2

Bob

mikesal57 · 10-14-2011, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

My eval lines and contenders.

Something about the #11 hitting my eye, last was a 6f bid against quick spilts at Del and shows strong closes deep in pps as a 2yr old against quick fractions. Solid poly 5f work, play at 6/1 or higher.

Yes...it hit me too like that too...

after 3 races in tough company, maybe the connections finally said it time to put him where he belongs..

gl

mike

For The Lead · 10-14-2011, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Yes...it hit me too like that too...

after 3 races in tough company, maybe the connections finally said it time to put him where he belongs..

gl

mike

Well, the connections STILL HAVEN'T put the horse where it belongs.
This horse is eligible for NW2X and today they have it in NW3X. I mean, if it was in a straight claiming race, it is eligible for NW3L.

When I was a kid starting out in this game, the "old timers" then, use to compare horse racing to boxing.

You wouldn't take a young heavyweight with two wins and match him up with the Heavyweight Champion of the World. The kid would get his brains beat out. And after that, you wouldn't match the kid up with the #1 ranked contender for the crown. Again, he would get his brains beat out. The point being, it is no good to "discourage" a young fighter.

Horses are no different. If you constantly overmatch a young horse just because it shows "promise" you are going to discourage the horse.

This #11 horse started out its' racing career real nice, breaking its' maiden right out of the box. (of course, that was more than a year ago)
The horse then came right back in an "Optional" claiming race for NW2L, where it ran second.(again, that was more than a year ago)
The horse then came back to beat that very same condition, but had 5 months off in between races. Why the 5 months off? With young horses it usually means an injury of some sort.

Then "the connections" thought they had a "champion"! They moved the horse right from NW2L (sprinting) to a GRADE III race routing. That turned out bad. Then they followed that with couple of overnight Stakes races where the horse again turned in poor performances.

Today they are getting closer to where the horse started. Back where the horse "may" belong. At this point in its' racing career, this horse has only beat "maidens" and "NW2L", which IS NOT NW2X.

For you guys who like the #11 today, I wish you the best of luck!

mikesal57 · 10-14-2011, 10:47 AM

FTL...except for horses #1 and #12...wouldn't all the other be in the same situation as the 11? They all have just 2 wins ?

10-12-2011, 04:15 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-12-2011, 04:17 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	,,. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-12-2011, 07:30 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	before scratches Lots of speed but the best is 7, the FPLR, at 22-45.1-57.5, a race in which this horse was 3rd in a Grade 3 race. Best placing in highest class race in this field. The 2 has run some fast internal fractions competitive with the 7 and has shown it can win from 4th or 5th. Has also shown tendency to press too closely and so two possible outcomes; the 2 burns out from running too close or the 2 pressures the 7 into faltering (note the 7 had lead in last but did not win at that level. Today he should sit behind all the speed and hope to catch the 7. The 1 from line 5, a 100K stake showed ability to close against faster paces, and beat half the field that day. Always have trouble backing a Martian primary pick is the 7, next the 2 and I will box the 7-2-1 and look for some good odds in my top three choices. Bill

10-12-2011, 11:36 PM	#5
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	2 & 11 for me __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

10-13-2011, 06:14 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	My eval lines and contenders. Something about the #11 hitting my eye, last was a 6f bid against quick spilts at Del and shows strong closes deep in pps as a 2yr old against quick fractions. Solid poly 5f work, play at 6/1 or higher. Tossing the ml fav #7 as he has not won on either turf or poly. If he wins so be it. RAW Very best of luck/skill everyone Heading to Vermont for the weekend after work tomorrow with Karen to see the fall foliage and hang at a quaint bed and breakfast (touring a winery there too! MMMM) Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-12-2011, 04:13 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Keeneland Friday 10/14- TM 101 Race Class Here is the 8th from Keeneland on Friday going 6.5f on the Polytrack. Very best of luck/skill to all Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-14-2011, 08:49 AM	#7
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Keenland 7-6-2 Bob

10-14-2011, 10:47 AM	#10
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	FTL...except for horses #1 and #12...wouldn't all the other be in the same situation as the 11? They all have just 2 wins ? __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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