Sunday Match-Up

[PeteC]

If anyone wants to look at Hollywood today I thought this was an interesting one...

#3 Fly Boy is scratched...

#6 is coming off of a layoff, but I'll ignore that per Match-Up instructions. He is an early runner who can fight. Going back to line 3 shows a close 2nd beaten less than a length vs 22.2 45.1, 2-hd 2-0.5 1-hd 2-0.75.


#5 fought for the lead last time vs a slower 22.3 46.1 so I eliminated him.

#7 was sitting 2nd also vs a slower 22.4 46.0, and he was on the lead vs that pace 2 back, so I eliminated him too.

So with #6 being an early who looks faster than the other potential earlies, I'll pick him on top.

Hope everyone's having a good day....Did anyone else look at this race???

[tfm]

Originally Posted by PeteC

#5 fought for the lead last time vs a slower 22.3 46.1 so I eliminated him.

#7 was sitting 2nd also vs a slower 22.4 46.0, and he was on the lead vs that pace 2 back, so I eliminated him too.

So with #6 being an early who looks faster than the other potential earlies, I'll pick him on top.

Hope everyone's having a good day....Did anyone else look at this race???

First of all it need be noted that Mullins trained the 6 for that race. He's one of the premier JUICERS in the country. Now the horse comes back under the care of another trainer, off a 10 month layoff.

That aside, I can see where you'd eliminate the 5, as he's probably not faster than the 6 early. But the 7 should have a 'conditioning' edge over the 6 as he's cutting back from two 6.5F races. Sure, if the jock tries to compete with the 6 early, he gets gutted. However, if he just chooses to stalk, sitting, say, 1 length behind the 6, he can easily run the 6 down late. Not saying I want the 7, as I haven't closely looked at the race but a tick edge in early speed when the chaser is cutting back shouldn't mean much of anything.

Also, you guys have a different definition of 'fighter' than I do. The 6 shows one race where he 'fought' (HOL 6-28-09). It was a race that went 3-2-4-1 around the track and the top 4 weren't separated by more than 3 lengths thru the 3rd call. (the other early dueler backed up to 4.5 L behind at the wire.) A fighter for me is a horse that fights early on the lead and then holds on in a race that falls apart. A true fighter not only fights but he does so against the grain.

[Bill Lyster]

Race for 3yo and up, with the 6 and 7 the only 4yo.

If the six comes back OK the pace should be 22.2 and either 45.4 or 46. The six should be clear by the first call, but TT of 23.2 is suspect as is 5f time of 58.1. Several others like the tandem runners 4-7-8 look like they were at or just under 58 at that point. The 7 has a TT of 23.1 off a 46 so should be gaining; the 4 bobbled in the tandem but seems to lose ground on the turn. The 8 was the best finisher in the tandem going 4-3-2 and closing 2+ lengths.

The 2 is a maiden winner but has run 22.4 on the turn in two races and last race ran against the fastest pace of this group.

I would favor the 7 to the 2 and 8 in this one.

Good luck

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks for putting up the race.

[PeteC]

ouch. i was way off on that one...thanks for the lesson guys!!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by PeteC

ouch. i was way off on that one...thanks for the lesson guys!!

Here's a piece of advice.

Horses OFF more than 90 days win about 5% of all races year in and year out. Next time you see a race like this, ask yourself, "do I really think this is one of those horses that make up that 5%?"

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Here's a piece of advice.

Horses OFF more than 90 days win about 5% of all races year in and year out. Next time you see a race like this, ask yourself, "do I really think this is one of those horses that make up that 5%?"

Good advice...thank you.

[JEFF KENT]

Yes I matched this one.
I had the #6 as the clear pacesetter at 2nd call,but "COMFORT ZONE"
DQ,D him as a lone E.

AS per "HAT" matching final time was #2+f.p.l.race

The winner #7 matched final time ,but had not shown as of yet that he could match these fractions,these kind of races are dicey to match,unproven pace
ability. My pick was the #2,VERY COLD ON THE BOARD=WATCH OUT!!!

[Bill Lyster]

Another factor in these types of races, IMO, was that the 7 and 8 were the only 4 YO in the field. Because of maturity issues 4YO have a declining advantage, but still real, from January 1 to about this time of year, when raced against 3YOs. As the summer begins the maturity of younger horses is less an issue, but Jan 1 to + or - now the advantage is there and must be respected.

This is not so much a primary handicapping factor because all things being equal we still need to find horses to mind the anticipated pace. For me it is a betting choice tool to help separate contenders (Thanks Marty!)

The winner was closest to the pace in the tandem race with the 4 and 8 and looked to get first run. No way (for me) to predict he'd go wire to wire

For the future, any horses that have shown to be competitive in races such as these that next enter races restricted to 3 year olds deserve a good look.

Bill

[mikesal57]

heres a thought for you guys...( I know I'm going to get hammered here)


FORGET ABOUT TIMES!!

WHOS the early horse based on position and class together?

mike