My best longshot to date

[DanBoals]

Playing Mountaineer this evening, I hit my best longshot ever.

Special thanks go to Ted for making this wonderful software, and to Mark for teaching me that it is ok to go past the last 3 lines when the situation warrants.

I have to take credit for not hitting the exacta. The 5 horse was showing as an overlay, but I didn't like the JOCKEY, so didn't include him in my bets. What a hard way to learn that it is the horse that runs the race...

Anyways, thought I would share the race, for good and bad reasons.

Lessons learned :

1) If you are really convinced a horse has a good shot, don't be afraid to bet it.
2) Don't let a bad jockey or trainer scare you off a horse that is deserving of a bet, it's the horse that runs the race.
3) You should probably bet more on longshots and LESS on "sure things", or at least that seems to be the case with my wagering.

Hopefully this will not be my last longshot. I am currently hitting 12%, which is very low I realize, but then I bet more exactas than win bets. My ROI for the first two weeks of June is 37 cents profit on the dollar, that doesn't include today's big score.

Once again, special thanks to Ted for the software that keeps me in the game, and to Mark for taking the time to share some pointers with me.

Dan

[DanBoals]

Here is the result chart for those interested :

[Mark]

Dan,

That is some serious butt kicking!! Good for you!! The conviction to bet your readouts is what this game is all about. Fantastic!!

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations Dan! That was a pretty scary looking winner Out of curiosity, care to elaborate on your rationale for keeping it as a contender, compared to the ones you eliminated?

For example, was it something like: use only horses who have ever shown ITM finishes at the MNR 7f Turf course? If so, I understand your contender and line selection, but your thoughts on not using the #8 Miss Dolan as contender (low odds?)

That's were the longshots come from - the otherwise dodgy looking ones!

Ted

[mowens33]

Man give me some of that action!

Dan, Congrats!!!

[Mark]

Dan and I worked on POWER LINES and their selection as appropriate pacelines two weeks ago in a series of races. So if I may, I'd like to comment on this 74/1 winner.
What does a significant layoff mean? What layoff return patterns have been shown extremely profitable for decades?
A 200+ day layoff means that the owner felt his horse worthy of going to the farm, paying monthly expenses and feed bills to say nothing of Vet bills. If the horse was broken beyond repair we would never see him again. What we see here is the mandatory public workout for a horse that hasn't raced in 60 days: a moderate 37 and change 3f. If a horse is able to work that fast, he has been in training at the farm. At minor league venues they are not going to spoil their opportunity to put a horse over at a big price by showing a month or more of sharp works because in most cases they have bills to pay. Now they race the horse twice on the dirt and yesterday he was going onto his preferred surface. Historically, 3rd after a significant layoff is a high reward angle.
We have to assume that the a horse returning from a significant layoff is a "NEW" horse. He is happy and healthy and returning to work. All he lacks is racing fitness. I look for horses that have had about 1/2f of work and races in the last 30 days. Those horses will be approaching peak fitness. Cheaper horses rarely progress in their racing after a long layoff in a linear fashion. They JUMP and if the indications are that they are returning to distance and surface that they previously excelled at prior to that layoff, it will be the MONEY RUN.
At 15/1 this horse was a bet because until you get good at recognizing these horses you may only hit one in ten. At 74/1 Dan pulled the trigger with a $15 WPS bet. Giving himself a little room in case racing luck worked against him. At 74/1 the place price even with the favorite would make most peoples' day.
Bradshaw was adamant about looking at all 10 pps for each horse, that in the right circumstances anyone of those lines could be selected. Evaluate the pps from the bottom up!! There is a story there that you will begin to understand over time. By focusing on the last 3 lines you do yourself no favor and will never get this kind of horse. Dan got the message and in less than 2 weeks he has a score that most of us drool over.

[DontSayDont]

Dan,

I don't know if you play Mountaineer on a regular basis but on Wed. evening the same Trainer/Jockey combination of the place horse in your race, won the 9th race with a horse that went off at 5:1. Some trainers seem to get all their barn running at the same time. I don't know if this could be what happened here because I don't play MNR on a regular basis.

I like to see how past FL trainers are doing there. It has been a long time since Eddie Clouston, Loren and Craig Cox and others had a strings at FL. That was the first track my wife and I went to. Then I stopped playing the horses, when it became a racino, for many years.

Ray

[rmath]

Congratulations Dan. Keep up the good work.
MNR has always been the track where I have gotten a lot of winners at 20/1 and up.

rmath

[DanBoals]

Ted

Both the 4 and 8 figured as contenders based on their BL/BL, but I eliminated both of them because of their E/L being too early. With them both being plus E/L, I didn't think either had a chance. With a lone early speed, even on turf, they have a chance, but with multiple horses too early, I eliminated them. Leaving the ones you see above, that are all negative on E/L. The 9 looks really sketchy based on his last couple races, but when you go back and look at his 3 7f turf races, he did well in all of them, and since today was a 7f turf, I used one of those older lines. Hope this explains my "logic", anytime you hit a 74-1 horse, there is obviously some luck involved... but thanks to the software and to Mark's pointers, I went back a little bit on the 9, looked at his body of work, and included him.

Dan

[Mitch44]

Great strike Dan.
Mitch44