Hollywood

[mikesal57]

Hi Rich...nice race..

#1...speedy fighter ,beat alot of these.....in
#3...interesting ..beat the #1 tandem 3/5..2race off layoff...in
#4...no form last 3 races and #10 beat him...out
#5...power move last race & lost to the #6...no wins on PP and vs this proj pace...out
#6...in form and has won vs this pace...in
#7..in form and ran good vs pace, but lost to 2 tandem horses...out
#8...like longer races..will be back to far at 5.5 furs...out
#9...speed horses but quits at this pace...out
#10 in form...won from 3 & 4th positions vs pace ...in
#12..lost to #10...nothing vs pave...out


1-3-6-10

i see it between the 3 & 10

mike

[mamojica]

Originally Posted by Tanico

Well it looks the pace has to be 44 and change. I like the 6 the best and maybe the 10 to get a part. I am not very good with the matchup like you guys but I am trying to learn.

Hi Tanico,

I'm a new matcher just like you. I have been at it for two months. I'll give you a little history about myself so that you will avoid some of the mistakes I made.

This is my second go round with the Match-Up. Two years ago I gave it a shot, but I ignored Richie's and Mr. Bradshaw's advice. I tried to learn everything at once. I read the 5 step approach and then everything in the Hat Check forum and tried to apply everything to my handicapping all at once. Needless to say, it was too much too fast. I was unsuccessful at the track and gave it up. I wasted the next couple of years trying other things, and did no better.

A couple of months ago, I decided to try the Match-Up again, but do it right. I decided to bite the bullet, and take as much time as necessary to master the 5 step approach before I tried anything else. It's hard work. At first you will lose more often than you win. But eventually, things turn around if you work hard and (as one person told me in another thread) practice, practice, practice. Work as hard on practice races as you do with races that you bet. And take notes. Every time you make a decision in a race, write it down. If you decide to eliminate a horse as a competitor, write down the reason why. Most of the time, you'll eliminate horses simply because they are too slow. Write down "#6 horse - too slow." If you have gotten the field down to two or three horses, and in the process of matching you decide on the horse to bet, write down the reason. You need to be able to see whether or not your reasoning is sound. The process of writing down your thought process will actually help you think better. This has been an important part of the learning process for me.

Practice the 5-step-approach exclusively for at least two months, as RichieP says. You should probably do it longer. After two months I feel that I need at least one, and probably two or three months more. Print out the 5 Step Approach and keep it handy when you go through a card. Based on my experience, limited as it is, I believe that the 5-step-approach is all you need to become profitable. But you shouldn't stop there. The Hat Check forum gives you advanced teaching on the subject. But don't try to run before you can walk. Before you really delve into the Hat Check, try to become proficient with the 5 step approach. I tried it the other way and wasted two years.

Feel free to read through the Hat Check forum. You will pick up things that will be helpful in the 5 step approach. But don't try the advanced concepts until you can handle the basics.

Good luck and best wishes,
Marc

[tfm]

Spot the Diplomat

The cutback in distance will mitigate, somewhat, the premature move tendencies of the jock.

[Tanico]

Hi Mamojica thanks for that well thought out post. I will take your advice and just start over doing thinks the way you suggest. I think it is certainly worth the effort

Thanks again

Tanico

[Charlie D]

There may be a bar room brawl up front

[Bill Lyster]

After Richie put the lights on, I like the 6 much more. I can see that usually he makes up ground from 1c to 2c and again to the stretch, so if we voodoo a bit with line 4 and note that the 5f time of 56.3 is one of the faster races I can see this horse about 7th or 8th, moving to 4th or 5th and being in prime position at the stretch call to pass gasping early types. As for the 10, recent races near this pace produce kinda of a hanging pattern and until you go back 208 days you really don't find convincing proof that he can maintain his closing kick.

#6 to win

[RichieP]

Here is my O.T.E. grouping.

1st screenshot is Bl/bl
2nd is raw lines that match proj pace

If the race does go OTE I have a funny feeling both the 3 and 10 might get sucked in around 2c.

That leaves the end around deep closing 5 and 6 as win contenders for me. Hat would be hollering at my ass for picking "mars" runners so one of them better pop

no scratches which is good

[Charlie D]

I chucked #5 because of it's two Tandem losses to #6 and #1

[Charlie D]

I reckon those very fast OSA lines are more to do with track condition than horse ability and from the March 5th race, i figure #3 went from 6th - 1st because others just stopped. A similar scenario to March 5th could happen here, but i chucked #3 OUT as overall it made no appeal here .

Leaving me OTE #6 and #10

[Bill Lyster]

Re: the 6:
Since the return to racing after the lengthy layoff he has shown no real desire to attend faster paces the way he did before he took a vacation. Agree on the 6