Best of the last 3 comparable 7.5 Turf

[Bill V.]

Ray
Here is your race from Remington

I did not bet this race. However as we agreed per you request, I will work each of your contest selections.

I will include the # 3 horse even though it was a scratch.
You had no way to know that when you posted the race
In truth with the 3 horse scratched it makes my decision easier
because the 3 was one of the question marks in the race

Ok lets get started. For this race I will post the PP's
Its a short field and I had to go back on almost all the horses
Now folks can see why I went to the line I did.
Here is the conditions and apv clas ratings and NP

[Bill V.]

Here are the PP's I added notes to most of the horses
to show my pace line thoughts

Step 1 as always who has the top 5 tpr and top 2 EP and LP off the last line
well here the winner ranks poor but look at this mix of distance and surfaces
Lets go through each horse and use a comparable recent plus or plus + within
a zero (+) race

[Bill V.]

I see a few EARLY horses
Even If I don't use a line I know they are in the race

Here we go

[Bill V.]

The notes didn't show up on the first two horses
Why no line for horse 2 ?
Its a EARLY with Plus + races at 7.5 but from 400 days ago

now the rest of the horses

[Bill V.]

we have a few Early horses

Who will win ? Early or OTE

[Bill V.]

The 5 wins OTE

[JIMBOB1002]

Hi Bill,just wondered what caused you to pick the best ever TPR and SR for the #1 and the #5. thanks Jim

[Bill V.]

Great question Jim

I believe the 7.5 distance is not being adjusted correctly by equibase/trackmaster/SartinDowns

If you look at all the horses 7.5 Turf TPR numbers they all seem to be
too high compared to their other lines

If I had to rate any horse on a line other than 7.5 I would have passed
the race

Bill

[JIMBOB1002]

Gotcha. Thanks Bill

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Great question Jim

I believe the 7.5 distance is not being adjusted correctly by equibase/trackmaster/SartinDowns

If you look at all the horses 7.5 Turf TPR numbers they all seem to be
too high compared to their other lines

If I had to rate any horse on a line other than 7.5 I would have passed
the race

Bill

Bill...

Great point regarding the unique distance of 7.5 Turf races.....

the old saying of comparing apples and oranges...

It might be best to stay within the comfort zone unless one has worked many races "cross comparing" pacelines from different distances/surfaces....

I had encounter similiar "issues" with pacelines from the distance of 8.3 furlongs...This distance does not correlate well in some of Sartin programs....Contenders from these pacelines usually ranked lower on energy and other factors....

I used to adjust the 8.3F distance paceline to 8.5F using simple math and rate of motion to arrive at a new paceline of 8.5F to reenter to the program to reevaluate...

I do not have sufficient races to substantiate this opinion, it is not from a large sample size of races to make a dogmatic opinion to be etch in stone.

Regarding your paceline selections, I probably would have chose the same pacelines for #5 and #1....#5 had an adjusted speed rating from Trackmaster of 82 for the 3rd paceline back....It was from a claiming race of 10K, then the trainer entered the horse in higher class races to protect his horse. In this race, the trainer entered his horse back at the level where is he competitive and at the distance where he was close to winning or had previously won at...

In a perfect world for us, program users.... The 3rd line back paceline of #4 where he earned an adjusted Trackmaster speed rating of 81 should allow us to see the #5 Passion Talk and #4 Perfect Tap in the top two in our readouts....