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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 08-30-2014, 11:54 AM   #11
shoeless
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Hi Bill,

Plus within a zero
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Old 08-30-2014, 07:06 PM   #12
Bill V.
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form

My thoughts ...

Technically Its a plus within a zero.. But it is a powerful
positive form indicator and a great spot play

First this is from the pace line manual.

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Here is a clean copy of La Reine's Wager pp's
Line 1 is Reines Wagers first try at a two turn route. Both of the Laurel
8 furlong races are 1 turn routes beside missing lots of time throughout her career she has been sprinting.

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Line 1 is its first 2 turn route. LaReine is a EP. She can pass horses.

She usually breaks well. In its last 5 sprints its beaten lengths at the second call are a up close 3.5, 3.6, 2, 2. and 2.1

Now about line 1. They stretch her out to 1 mile ( two turns at Parx )
but she has no experience.

The horse is in post 1 BUT look at its comment "Broke Slow"

What does Tom Brohamer say about trouble lines

"the horse still must show something "

It breaks slow, but rushes up and passes 5 horses
and gets within 1/2 a length of the leader.
Here is the thing. Besides the traffic it faced by breaking slow It does this going into and through the first turn !! by the first call its a contender.

It used too much energy early because its inexperience routing,
So it fades badly. RDSS or any Sartin program will not rate this line well because of the bad 3rd fraction.

However this is a (+) paceline

Here is a diagram of Parx racetrack. I have marked where the first and second call are and where La Reine was at those calls.
Also look how soon the first turn comes up in a mile race.
So LaRiene had all of out side horses coming over as best they could as to not get hung out wide.

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There are other positives
This trouble start was 8 days after its return form a layoff
Each race since the layoff, they are going longer. After the bad finish they come back at the same class CL7.5 N3-L but now the go to 8.3 furlongs.

On its next race it was in post 4 at the same class
and they come right back in 3 weeks. This race was in Feb so 3 weeks
is pretty good return with inclement weather and cancellations these low level claiming races fill up fast.

Here is the chart of the last line race

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anyway in its next race La Reine was in post 4. It had very little pressure to its inside and won and paid $34.60

Thanks
Bill
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Old 08-31-2014, 03:24 AM   #13
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Bill V, excellent analysis! I learned a couple of good pointers.
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Old 08-31-2014, 09:14 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mowens33 View Post
Bill, here are my thoughts:

Running in a rout she needs to be early, from the comment she got a slow start and got rushed and was in contention to the 2nd call.(a decent form indicator) But looking at the past performance she looks better going short. If she was in a sprint today I may consider this a plus/zero race, but in this case I consider it a zero.

Thanks for the encouragement and kind words from my previous post!!

Mike
Bill, she was bet down 2.6/1, looks like a lot of people did consider the last line as a plus. The slow start again killed her chances, If she had a good break and stayed on the reel and was able to relax she would of had a decent chance. But I'm still not convinced she could get this distance at his level.
Great Post!
Mike
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Old 08-31-2014, 11:06 AM   #15
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Feb 2

Hi Mike

Thanks for looking at my race, The horse was bet down to 2.60 off the Jan25 7 furlong race.*** On Feb 2 as La Reine was about to race. This is what the public ( RDSS users ) saw

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The Feb 2 line is a (+). it was in the lead or up close in the first 3 calls, It beat half the field. Its dropping in class level from CL10 N3-L to CL 7500 N3-L It comes right back in 8 days
This is a positive move . So it was bet to 2.60 from a 3.5/1 morning line


That chart I show in the above post is the Feb 23 race in which it showed the early speed but fade pattern



***This is a Parx thing . 7 furlong horses win 1 mile races very often


Good Skill
Bill
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Old 08-31-2014, 11:17 AM   #16
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I would say a zero line. He was losing both lengths and position at the 2nd call, which was the 1/4 pole in that mile race. Stretch call and finish, it is safe to say that the rider was no longer trying, hence why the final segments are worse than they appear. Regardless, his race was over heading to the 2nd call. If he had been racing evenly at that call, then maybe I go for a +O. In this case, a O line seems appropriate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Here is a older female
The race was from xxxx (for those who will just go to the result chart )
I would like your opinions on the last pace line The race was from Parx
Is it a plus pace line ?
Is it a plus within a zero ?
Is it a zero ?

** by last I mean line 1

Lets discuss this ..

Bill

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Old 08-31-2014, 02:31 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
I would give her an excuse in her latest but then have to make her a non-contender as I would have to go to far back to get a usable line. Also not sure she can run with 7500 claimers. She broke her maiden for Mc10k and then won a 5kn2L. I think she may need another drop to the 5k level before winning.

Ray

Hello Ray

Actually If they drop her to $5000.
She better go elsewhere to run. For females Parx only runs strait/open $5000 claimers or non winners of 1 race in 6 months. at the mile distance

In the same time frame from my database I have 15 CL7.5N3-L races
I have 10 races for the $5000 claimer levels at 1 mile

Looking at the pace of race for CL 5000/ CL5000 N1-6M and CL7500 N3-L for 1 mile females

$5000 N1-6M 48.4 113.5 141.6
$5000 Open 48.4 113.6 140.4
$7500 N3-L 48.9 114.7 142.3

The difference is probably because the $5000 level allows better horses to drop in and win, All the horses in the CL 7.5 N3-L races naturally
have just two wins. The race is restricted to a certain level.

Here are the number of wins for the winning horses of my 10
$5000 level races as they enter the race.
6, 8, 2, 4, 4, 4, 6, 11, 5, 4

Good Skill
Bill V.
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Old 08-31-2014, 02:55 PM   #18
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Bill,

I didn't know that. Good information, thank you! I have almost 2 years of result file information stored, hoping to maybe use Prx as my winter time track but haven't done any research on the information I have.

Ray
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Old 09-07-2014, 05:26 AM   #19
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Why aren't these +/0 things already programmed into the software?
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Old 09-09-2014, 08:56 PM   #20
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Speed Figure-

They kind of are. Anytime you see 1c or 2c position in color, they were in the top 3- so you know they were up close. It's tough to codify that into software as everyone's interpretation of a + (+) or - performance is different. I'm reading a book about form cycles by William Scott and his interpretation for a (+) is position at the stretch call. This is slightly different than some of the Sartin Manual Bill showed above.

There is no "Right" or "Wrong" answer with this distinction, just a difference in method as to how one personally grades a horse. Some people prefer a more conservative approach, others perfer a more liberal approach. It's up to you to figure out what works with your handicapping and what your records show.
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