Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-15-2013, 10:01 AM   #11
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 102
From FTL's original post: "3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days."

What is a similar distance? Within 1 furlong, 1/2 furlong or more? With 4 distances covering a mile to 1 1/16th would you use any one of the distances as being similar. If the last line was 8.5 and a -0- type race but todays race is 8.2 and the 2nd line back was a 8.2f race with a (+) both at the same class, would you pass the horse because of the -0- race or go back to a race at the exact distance and a (+) race?

When I last played Finger Lakes they only had 1 mile, 1.70 and 1 1/16 races. Few of them were 1 1/16th. Now they have added 1.40 and from all races run this year, every distance is slightly different in "my" profiles.

Mile races are seldom run (only 8 races before yesterday) and show 1Call and FX to have the highest win %. 1.40 races, Turn Time and EP. At 1.70 there are 4 categories tied for top honors, final time, average pace, sustained pace and FX slightly higher. Finally 1 1/16 is still not raced often and all but 2 categories are tied for top honors. What is a bit surprising is at all these distances, last fraction is not among the best categories.

This comes from using the winning horse and his ranking in the various categories. I have his winning %'s for ranking #1, #2 and #3 separately and then 1 + 2 and 1+2+3. I try to rank 5 horses per race and any horse not ranked would still be entered as a 6 in each category so every race run gets recorded.
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 11:34 AM   #12
Appy
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
FTL and Bill, now you guys are in my wheelhouse!
Do you have a source for those odds based stats, or just from your own database?

I've been charting results for about a year for a number of tracks, but the process is extremely time consuming. Worth it, but man it takes a LOT of manual spreadsheet time due to password and encryption of pdf charts.
__________________
Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com
Appy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 11:36 AM   #13
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,841
What if

Hi DSD ( I hate screen names )

As far as your question about distances,In your example above
I would need to know something.
Is the race a zero / than why?

1. Is the only reason the 8.5 race was a zero race because of the 8.5 distance.
What I mean is, lets say in your example the horse shows wins at the 8.5 distance down in its past performance races.

One of the valid excuses from the pace line manual is
Wrong Distance. But I would need to look at the horses history

Every race is different. That is why there is nothing in the valid excuses
list from the pace line manual about more or less than 1 furlong

The question is best answered by " is this race comparable?"

Has the horse won or ran a + race at this distance in the past ?

In FTL's example race a big key to the good price for the winner.
is that the 1.6/1 ML favorite has no comparable pace line

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 11:41 AM   #14
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,841
Do

Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy View Post
FTL and Bill, now you guys are in my wheelhouse!
Do you have a source for those odds based stats, or just from your own database?

I've been charting results for about a year for a number of tracks, but the process is extremely time consuming. Worth it, but man it takes a LOT of manual spreadsheet time due to password and encryption of pdf charts.
Hi sir

I do my database the old pen and paper way in a $1.00 notebook
It takes me just a few minutes as soon as the results charts appear

When I have some spare time, usually in the AM before the races start,
I then enter the data into excel, by typing in the numbers
I find the kinetic chore of doing the work more rewarding then
automatically downloading. but then again I'm not everybody
and I only do 1 track.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 12:14 PM   #15
Segwin
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 597
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post

In these 180 races the winner had a ML of 20/1 or above just 1 time
that's 1 for 180 !
Good morning Bill.

Do you have any stats on when a 20/1 places or shows & what the average payout & odds were?

Thanks!
__________________
Terry
Segwin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 01:16 PM   #16
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by Segwin View Post
Good morning Bill.

Do you have any stats on when a 20/1 places or shows & what the average payout & odds were?

Thanks!
Hi No Sorry
I don't pay any attention to place or show stats so I just look at the winners. I do make place and show bets but just like Doc says
I look for horses who have all the characteristics of a win horse but just happen to place or show.

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 01:18 PM   #17
Segwin
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 597
Thanks Bill.
__________________
Terry
Segwin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 06:46 PM   #18
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,285
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
From FTL's original post: "3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days."

The purpose here is two fold. (1) to remind us that if today's distance is a sprint...use sprint races or (2) if today's distance is a route...use route races.

What is a similar distance? Within 1 furlong, 1/2 furlong or more? With 4 distances covering a mile to 1 1/16th would you use any one of the distances as being similar. If the last line was 8.5 and a -0- type race but todays race is 8.2 and the 2nd line back was a 8.2f race with a (+) both at the same class, would you pass the horse because of the -0- race or go back to a race at the exact distance and a (+) race?

"Doc's" guideline was to use races that were within 1 furlong of today's distance. This could open a can of worms for some people. Suppose today's race is 1 mile, can you use a 7 furlong race? NO. 7 furlongs is a sprint, not a route! So where today's distance is 1 mile, any race up to 9 furlongs is appropriate.
To answer your question, no, you would not bypass a "0" race that is 8.5 furlongs and go back to the second line back because it is 8.2 furlongs and the exact distance of today's race.
It is important to remember "acceptable" excuses for going back a line. They are all in the Paceline Manual.


When I last played Finger Lakes they only had 1 mile, 1.70 and 1 1/16 races. Few of them were 1 1/16th. Now they have added 1.40 and from all races run this year, every distance is slightly different in "my" profiles.

My first question here is, do you mean "profile" or do you mean "model"?
In either case, that is a good job of separating the distances so you can see the difference. Many people just put all route races together. They would never see the differences you are talking about.


Mile races are seldom run (only 8 races before yesterday) and show 1Call and FX to have the highest win %. 1.40 races, Turn Time and EP. At 1.70 there are 4 categories tied for top honors, final time, average pace, sustained pace and FX slightly higher. Finally 1 1/16 is still not raced often and all but 2 categories are tied for top honors. What is a bit surprising is at all these distances, last fraction is not among the best categories.

Actually, I don't find that surprising. In my experience, seldom is the 3rd fraction the dominant category. That is not to say it never happens that way, it's just not as common as other factors. Different tracks can play differently, so it pays to keep "models" and/or "profiles" for each track you play.

I have been considering writing a thread on "models", so I'll just touch on that for a moment here. When keeping "models" you should break them down as much as possible. This is not my idea, although I'd like to take credit for it. (lol) These are the words of the model's father, Tom Brohamer. That was his suggestion to me. The idea is to not only keep a model by distance and surface, but also, by sex, class. Personally, I also break my models down by "condition" as well. Why go to this trouble? Well, CLM 5,000 NW2L horses don't run the same as CLM 25,000 "OPEN" horses. If you don't separate them, you will never see if there is a difference or not.

This comes from using the winning horse and his ranking in the various categories. I have his winning %'s for ranking #1, #2 and #3 separately and then 1 + 2 and 1+2+3. I try to rank 5 horses per race and any horse not ranked would still be entered as a 6 in each category so every race run gets recorded.
Thanks for the questions and for the information you provided.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2013, 12:12 AM   #19
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 1,268
I believe that all of the points being mentioned are valid. Myself I don't lock myself into a time cut off. For example yesterday at Parx r1 the winner was off more than 90 but was my #1 pick and won paying $28. Although I can see FTLs point even if you decide to eliminate the horse for win you shouldn't throw him out all together if you are an exacta or tri player. Also I've noticed that turf horses tend to win or place more then dirt horses off of 90 or more day layoffs. I do agree with the 20-1 ml guideline. Oh and I'm in the best of the last 3 dist & surface camp.
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2013, 01:10 AM   #20
Appy
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334

For a horse running early (is that his history?) he gave up an unusual amount of ground between 1st and 2nd call to put himself in the position of heading the other early to win.
__________________
Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com
Appy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Contender/paceline guidelines mrhug Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 21 01-04-2012 10:52 PM
** 5th Anniversary Follow Up Goodies ** Ted Craven General Discussion 9 06-07-2010 11:36 AM
"Which 2 do I bet? Doc Sartin's wagering guidelines RichieP RDSS 11 12-03-2009 10:09 PM
Follow Up Index by Issue/Author Ted Craven The Follow Up 0 10-15-2009 09:54 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:02 AM.