Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-21-2016, 08:08 AM   #1
gl45
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
Tpr

Can TPR numbers be used to master the MU?
gl45 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2016, 12:04 PM   #2
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,841
the sound of one hand clapping

Hi GL45

We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing
who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on ,

So If you know how to interpret the ERP ratings , and the early - late difference
graph or "sticks" and The LPR ratings and you take the time to learn how to identify a horses running style, You can matchup

Remember TPR is the Total Pace Rating of Phase 1
What TPR is really is 2 readouts Early pace and Late pace which when added together gets a Total Pace Rating

So If you master Phase 1, totally you can Match Up
It takes lots of practice and intuition, You will have trouble just if you just look at the numbers because the race starts at the gate. we need to know how the horses get to the second call, It is just as important as where they are at the second call . Did they use too much of there total energy ? Will they decelerate relative to their velocity too much.


Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2016, 01:41 PM   #3
mick
Grade 1
 
mick's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Nashville
Posts: 488
Zen Kōan

Bill, what a profound response.

And gl45, thanking you for asking the question. I've wanted to ask it a hundred times.
__________________
mick

"May you always have a clean shirt, a clear conscience, and enough coins in your pocket to buy a pint!"
- An Irish acquaintance in a Dublin pub

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2016, 02:12 PM   #4
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,585
It was a good question by GL45, I wish more had been done with it
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2016, 03:35 PM   #5
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 309
TPR and the Match Up

The vulnerability in literal interpretation of EPR-LPR and TPR is the assumption that should your selected horse run his EPR, that he will run his LPR as suggested by the selected paceline.
Early horses can run much better LPRs and subsequent TPRs if they are on an uncontested lead. So part of your evaluation is determining whether your best EPR horse got to that point slugging it out with other contenders or waltzed to it, reserving considerable energy for the stretch run. As Bill noted, you have to understand the concept of Running Styles. And Running styles are different than ESP. The former is based on visual evidence of a horse's preferred positon at the 1st Call when they run their top efforts, wins or very close finishes. ESP is a ratio of 2nd Call velocity divided by final fraction, IN THE PACELINE RACE YOU HAVE SELECTED. If you look at the Velocity -POH screen it will show you the ESP for each paceline. This tells you how the horse reacted to the POR of that paceline. An E means he was basically all done by the 2nd Call. And each additional designation, EP, P, SP, S and L have greater final fraction components often at the expense of 2nd call velocity.
So if you use the best of the last 3 comparable pacelines automatic paceline selection routines and the horses in question have had recent layoffs or have been running at higher classes and finishing poorly, in most cases your EPR best horses will have very poor LPRs and resulting TPRs. Or a S horse that closes into a slow final fraction will have a high LPR and better than normal
TPR.
This means two things:1) When you identify a horse's Running Style which you do without reference to pace or paceline, then to evaluate his potential you have to find a paceline where he ran well with a win or good finish. That may be his 8th line down or some such thing. You can always throw the horse out later because you feel his form is lousy and there is no way he will run back to that. 2). Also as Bill mentions, you have to know who will likely take the lead and what kind of early contention there will be. Generally, if there are 3 or more Es or EPs in a race, they will beat each other up and maybe one will hang on for 3rd. So you can not rely on the TPR method exclusively, you have to evaluate the 1st fraction and determine what kind of early pace will result. To me this has always been the problem with using TPR as a standalone handicapping method. Once you evaluate the runners, assign Running styles and select pacelines that show how the horses ran against that early pace, then you can throw them into TPR and have something meaningful.
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2016, 04:29 PM   #6
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,585
Mark,

Thanks for the reply
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2016, 05:36 PM   #7
mick
Grade 1
 
mick's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Nashville
Posts: 488
Thanks, Mark. I printed that and tacked it on the cork board at eye level.
__________________
mick

"May you always have a clean shirt, a clear conscience, and enough coins in your pocket to buy a pint!"
- An Irish acquaintance in a Dublin pub

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2016, 08:14 PM   #8
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 1,149
Bill you gave a great answer in saying "we need to know how the horses get to the second call."
Simple example: 1st Fr 2nd Second Call Phase 1 w/out any adjustments

Horse A 22 23 45 100 95 95
Horse B 23 22 45 95 100 95

Who is the best horse? B is the best horse in this scenario. A has already started to decelerate while B has plenty of acceleration or more energy. Once deceleration starts it normally continues and becomes greater.

While TPR or Total energy gets many winners in the top 3, also the end product is " we need to how the horses " get to their TPR or Total Energy. Just because the number are the same and may rate or get the same weight does not mean their equal. Great point Bill.
Mitch 44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2016, 12:22 AM   #9
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 309
One thing to always remember...

What is so useful in comparing Running Style and ESP is that you can find horses that take the lead but they have Sustained energy distribution. You find these horses most often in Graded races as they are supreme athletes. I have personally always marveled at horses the were over 10 lengths back at the 1st call and end up winning the race and their ESP is EP. That is evidence that the horse closed into a very week final fraction as all the Es and Ps just stopped. Check the %Med on late horses. On dirt a good S horse should run as low as 66% but generally in the 67% area. On turf they can go lower.
It is all about the competition in today's race and are the earlier runners going to go "too fast too early". Early horses that can pop the gate and gain immediate separation on their competitors while running within their capabilities will be damn hard to catch.
Horses that surrender lengths at the beginning of the race have to make that ground up later in the race. The only way to do that is to be running faster than the leader(s), a big 2nd fraction Presser may do this rapidly by passing the initial leader, but depending on the ground to be made up the differential in the velocity of the current leader and the closing runner will take greater or lesser time depending on the deficit and the closing horse's velocity.
There is one absolute law in all of racing: You don't have any traffic problems running on the front end.(Although I did see a comment once from a race at Hollywood probably 20 years ago, "Hit in head by bird".)
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2016, 03:27 AM   #10
turfsup
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 16
dear bill thanks for explaning the tpr ,, on another note are you or any one else making money betting maidens? I'm having some success with rdss// turfsup
turfsup is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:53 AM.