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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 01-27-2017, 10:51 PM   #1
Bill V.
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work up race GP race 1 1/26

This race was requested yesterday

It is race 1 from Gulfstream Park 8.0 on the Turf

The race is a 16000 claimer for 4+ F non winners of 3 races lifetime

The ML favorite is #5 1.6/1
followed by 3.5 4.5 to 1 then a gap to two horses at 8/1 a 12/1 andd 2 15/1's

My next step is to mark the running styles



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Last edited by Bill V.; 01-27-2017 at 10:55 PM.
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:09 PM   #2
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Fulcrum and running styles

There is no fulcrum , the 6 is a possibility with that fast 111.3 but it was at
8.5 furlongs, The 111 is also aberrant, the 6 has never run competitively against a 111.3 before

Running styles
Horse 1 Sus
Horse 2 Press
Horse 3 Sus
Horse 4 Sus
Horse 5 Sus
Horse 6 Early
Horse 7 SP
Horse 8 EP

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Old 01-27-2017, 11:15 PM   #3
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last line

The ML favorite has a big advantage on TPR of 177.1
the 6 and 7 are next with 168 and 169 just ahead of the 2,3 and 4
The 8 and 1 have low numbers

Every horse is runs late on the Early Late sticks

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Old 01-27-2017, 11:21 PM   #4
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Pacelines

These are not my selected pace lines
i just made screenshots of the PP's while the last line was auto selected.

Please look over the horses and come up with your choices for pace lines
I will post mine in a little while Thanks

Bill

Horse 1 2 3 4

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Last edited by Bill V.; 01-27-2017 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:23 PM   #5
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next

Horse 5 6 7 8

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Old 01-28-2017, 12:24 AM   #6
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I used TimeformUS's adjusted times for this exercise. When assessing 7.5f lines, I made some tinkers to the final fraction chart and made it into a Route race. With line selections, I was looking for some consistency as far as EPR/LPR was concerned. Anything that looked outside the norm, I dismissed.

Tampa invader (5) on the drop doesn't appear overpowering. 3 and 7 were hopelessly out of it so they were deleted.

Last edited by Jeebs; 01-28-2017 at 12:26 AM.
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Old 01-28-2017, 02:54 PM   #7
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My look

Hope you had a chance to think the race over .

Here are my thoughts

I used the last line for every horse except the #1 and #8 I try to avoid 7.5 pace lines
cause the program treats them as sprints , For me the less adjustments needed the better I feel .

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Here is how I take the next step using RX and VDC and to some extent the match up

First thing I do, once I get the phase 1 readouts.
I make any horse that is not in the top 3 EPR or LPR
and not within 5 points of the top 2 TPR horses , I make them non win contenders

The 3 and 8 are non contenders in phase 1 and VDC
I dropped the 6 to a ITM only because its a early runner, it has the worse LPR and the 5 has a better TPR

So My top 5 horses are

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Old 02-02-2017, 09:40 AM   #8
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Hi Bill
Quick question I don't see why several of these horses weren't marked as NF and not given a line. If a horse doesn't have a + or (+) line in top three do you simply give them the first line and then cull the herd using phase 1 and vdc ?
Thanks
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:06 PM   #9
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when I handicap I will just not bother with horses i "know" have no chance
and that only show 0 pace lines .

When I am asked to do workups I DO select the last line for every horse. FIRST
I do this so people learn the basics first. Running the last line on every horse is a PMTR
guideline. So in demos and work ups I select the last line and let the phase 1 numbers tell me who is a non contender

This is Important .. IN phase 1 what 1 horse does has nothing to do with the ther contenders readouts

A horse who gets a 95 EPR gets a 95 no matter what , If another horse gets a 100 EPR
the 95 EPR still gets a 95. Phase 1 is not energy based. Its velocity and deceleration based.
You can add or take away bad lines and it does not change other horse ratings
You can not do this with energy based Sartin progrms
That is why with energy based programs you have to use good + or (+) pacelines .

Last edited by Bill V.; 02-02-2017 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:37 PM   #10
Fairchild
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Thank you very much, I understand the difference now.
Thanks
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