Major vs. Minor tracks

[gl45]

what is the difference between major and minor tracks, beside better horses and larger purses.

[Charlie D]

The better quality horses form is probably less erratic gl45

[Bill P]

Earlier someone provided me with this link.

http://http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bi...ll_edition.cgi

Go to the "at a glances" tab on the left side of this link.

There you can scroll the tracks and find the ones that have the lower % of winning favs. This also shows the average win price odds at each track.

One of the most intersting things I found was that, at Santa Anita at any rate, the favorite was ITM 75% of the time.

[Charlie D]

SANTA ANITA AT A GLANCE

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.91 - 1
Favorite Win%: 33%, Favorite Itm%: 72%


HAWTHORNE AT A GLANCE

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.28 - 1
Favorite Win%: 42%, Favorite Itm%: 79%

These are, in my humble opinion, a good indicator of how competitive the racing is at a particular track.

[gl45]

CD,
if I understand correctly, betting at major tracks, where better horses mantain form longer (less erratic) you would win more races than betting at lower tracks, where cheap horse (more erratic) run?

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by gl45

CD,
if I understand correctly, betting at major tracks, where better horses mantain form longer (less erratic) you would win more races than betting at lower tracks, where cheap horse (more erratic) run?

Not sure tbh gl45, i suppose that depends on the "know thy track" part of the equation..Someone specializing in say Mnr would probably win more races than someone who does not get to know the horses likes, dislikes, how shippers do etc.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by hansend

If someone has been successful at PEN these last two nights I tip my hat to you. I just got eaten alive.

Sorry to hear that. It is always disheartening to learn that anyone got their head handed to them. (so to speak)

Ok, wait a minute, let me get up on my soapbox, I’m gonna be here a while. I think “noddub62” said it best when he said that becoming “very good” at pace line selection would be his best suggestion to anyone as well as “passing” races if there is no value, to which I will add, or if you cannot determine which horse(s) have the best chance of winning the race. But “how” do become “very good” at pace line selection?

Many times your track profile or decision model can point you in the right direction, IF you are keeping those records as you should be. A track profile is based on how the winners of a race ran and have no bearing on an individual’s pace line selection. A decision model on the other hand is a direct reflection of an individual’s pace line selection. One thing I learned about computers more than 25 years ago was, “garbage in, garbage out”. The same still holds true today, especially when it comes to a decision model, since it is based on the individual’s approach to pace line selection. It stands to reason then, that consistency in picking pace lines is a key. A single pace line is all a computer program knows about the horse. One has chosen that line to represent the horses entire racing history, so it better be representative of the horses style and current condition, which translates into its’ current form and ability. The pace line is nothing more than numbers to a computer program. The computer program knows nothing! The better ones’ line selection is at representing the horses current form, style and ability, the better the results will be. The more closely the pace line selected is with regard to today’s distance the better the results will be. Ideally, every pace line selected would be at the exact same distance as today’s race, but many times that just isn’t possible.

Just a little side note here. I recently saw a pace line that was used where the horse ran 10th from start to finish in a 12 horse field. Now exactly WHAT is that line suppose to represent? (no, the horse did not win)

Here is some food for thought. Today’s race is at 5 ½ furlongs. The line selected was at 7 furlongs. Does it matter? I’m sure you will get arguments on both sides of that question. I come down on the “yes” side and this is the reason. Let’s just talk about the “second fraction” at each distance. “Where on the track” is the second fraction run at each of these distances? At 5 1/2 furlongs it is run “on the turn”, which makes sense since the second fraction is also known as ”turn time”. In fact, the 5 ½ furlong distance is the only distance that has a true “turn time”. How about the 7 furlong race? Isn’t it the same thing? The horses still have to run around that same turn. Well, no, it isn’t. First, think about the times as they appear in the racing form. The first time represents the first ¼ mile of the race. The next time represents the first ½ mile of the race. By subtracting the first time from the second time we get the “second fraction” time. This is also known as ”turn time” or “the hidden fraction”. So we have the first ¼ mile of the race and the second ¼ of the race. As mentioned above, at 5 ½ furlongs that second fraction is run “on the turn”. So the next logical question would be, do horses run faster or slower on a turn? Answer: slower. So what? What about the 7 furlong race? The second fraction of a 7 furlong race is run on the straight of the back stretch. So is it a fair comparison of the second fraction of a 5 ½ furlong race, run on a turn, to the second fraction of a7 furlong race, run on the straight? I say “no”, but you decide for yourself.

And then there is this. Someone chooses a 6 ½ furlong pace line from a bull ring (a 5/8ths of a mile oval) such as DeD or CT among others, and uses it at a one mile oval in a 6 furlong race. WOW! What a conflict that is! A 6 ½ furlong race at a bull ring is run around TWO TURNS, while a 6 furlong race at a mile oval is run around ONE TURN! Good luck with that one! Which turn is the “turn time”? lol

Another thing to consider is, do horses even run the same “style” at each of these distances? Not necessarily! A dedicated early type will run early at each distance and, of course, the closers or “sustained” runners will still be at the back of the pack at both distances. But then there are horses that will change styles based on the distance. Many times you will see a horse that runs as a “presser” at 5 1/2 furlongs run as an “early” type at 7 furlongs. In fact, you will see this change in style among some horses when the change in distance is “slight”, such as 5 1/2 furlongs to 6 furlongs. It’s all there in black and white. All you have to do is look! In one of the follow-ups there is a great “Yogi Berra” quote, “you can observe a lot just by watching”!

And I’m not even going to get involved with mixing pace line distances such as route in a sprint or sprint in a route. Sure, you can find a race where it worked out, but keep in mind, “even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while”! Yeah, I know, but pigs eat acorns too and I happen to like the saying with “pig” rather than “squirrel”.

The standard guideline for pace line selection is “best of last 3, distance/surface”. (Now here’s some help with this. If the best of last 3 distance surface puts you on a line where the horse ran 10th from start to finish, perhaps this is a horse you could do without in the program.) Personally, I don’t agree with this guideline as I am much stricter than that. What good is the best of last 3 distance surface if that line is 400 days ago? Is there something “recently” that really indicates the horse is ready to run that kind of race today? If there is, then use it! I have NOT read every single follow up article, but from the ones I have read I can say this, seldom have I read where a line other than the last line was used as long as it was at the appropriate distance and surface. In the event that today’s race is a sprint and the last line was a route, line two would be the choice if that were a sprint. In other words, use the last line UNLESS there is a “good reason” to go back, and then, only back one line. If for some ”good reason” you need to go back another line, then go back. Of course this “good reason” deal opens up a can of worms for all who just can help themselves from going back to that 10th line back for whatever the reason may be. For me, personally, the ”going back process” stops at 90 days. If there is no line in the last 90 days, the horse is out. I won’t bore you with all the stats with regard to the percentage of horses that win within so many days or the number of horses that have a line in the last 90 days and all that stuff. In addition, the line used would have represented some type of form, a win, a second, a third or some early speed before fading in the stretch, “something” that indicated current form. Many times I see lines used that go back 6,7,8 or more races. YOU DO NOT NEED TO GO BACK THAT MANY LINES IN ORDER TO GET PRICES! Let’s take a look at Follow Up #83. Read through the races analyzed and see the lines selected as well as the reason for the line selected. And please, note the prices! http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=3066&page=2

Good luck everybody!

[Charlie D]

The information of several lines will indicate a horses ability and how it performs in different Match Ups. The information contained in one line can not do that.

Use the best program ever created FIRST to obtain a "picture". of the horse and it's ability. From this you will be able to deterime if a horse is a contender or not, once you have your TRUE contenders, ENTER them into your computer program.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

The information of several lines will indicate a horses ability and how it performs in different Match Ups.

You are still only looking at one line that represents one race. You are just looking at several of them at one time.

How do you know what the various "match ups" were in each of the various lines (races)?

[Charlie D]

I'm not posting to argue toss, i'm posting what i think is the best advice i know from the experiences of playing


Look at ALL lines and try and obtain a "picture" of the horse to determine what he/she can do against different Match Ups

The Past Performance histories of a horse are the cappers BEST friend.