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Old 04-21-2013, 11:32 AM   #21
lone speed
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Backstretch comments at Churchill

I am posting comments from a thoroughbred owner who posted in another board:

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  Impressions from CD backside this am (61 Views)
Posted bycovelj70 (IP Logged)
DateApril 212013 10:46AM

So
I got to spend the Morning at Churchill this am

Very sunny but very chilly morning

For 
folks who haven't been to CD backside, there are various "gaps" where the horses go from the backside onto the track. The track folks typically call them the "baffert gap" or the "Lucas gap" based on which big name trainers barns are closest to those gaps. 

For the best view of the breezes, you need to be on the front side. For the best/only view of the horses coming onto and off of the track, you need to be on the backside. 

I always go to the backside as I like to see the horses coming off of the track and see who is holding their weight well and who is breathing heavy coming off of the track after the breeze, etc. 

I was by the gap where all of the pletcher horses came on and off so I got a good look at the 5 pletchers and normandy invasion. I saw all of others on the track but I do not have really have a strong opinion on any others since I didn'
t see up close

The two by far that made the most favorable impression were Verazzano and palice maliceVerazzano couldnt have blown out a match after his breeze and he is carrying weight so wellHe is the best looking horse I have seen since rock hard ten and he is thriving right nowPalice malice is the other who really impressed me in terms of the weight he is holding and his coat considering what he just went through

The two least favorable impressions were Normandy invasion and revolutionaryNI is a small frail looking horse who doesn't carry alot of weight. Tough for me to back a horse who's that slight making his way through a 20 horse field. As of todayhe's off all my tickets. Revolutionary is another very light framed horse and he was blowing hard after his work. I wasn't that impressedOveranalyze definitely lost some weight compared to last weekend when i saw him in Arkansas but that is normal and i will be anxious to see if he regains the weight by next weekend when I am backCharming kitten looks like a typical turf horse so nothing much else to say there

Hope this is helpful to folks. As i always remind peopledon't put all your eggs in one basket and rule a horse out on what anyone is saying about how they look and train. I just try to find the ones I like anyway and confirm they seem to be coming into the race the right way. 
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:54 AM   #22
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trotman View Post
How can anyone pick the winner 3 weeks out with this underachieving lot. Yes Orb 4 wins in a row going in and Pletcher's horse undefeated, IMO they have shown nothing. Wait til the morning of to form an opinion because these 3 weeks will be the longest 3 weeks. I posted to Watchmakers story on DRF and it was trashed though I said nothing disrespectful, I only pointed to what a blowhard he really is and they didn't like it. Tip of the century when Watchmaker or Serling speak go the other way, and you can take that to the bank.

You see, there are others who take a whole different approach towards dissecting the Derby and its wagering opportunities due to the extremely super-large mutuel pool.

One does not cram or study the night before for a final exam; nor to dissect a large contentious 20 horse field the morning of the big race. If one wants to approach the game as those who walk into the track admission gate; then buy their Daily Racing Form and take a quick glance of the past performances twenty minutes or so before each race to analyze and to make their wagering decisions; then "May Your Numbers Increase".

There are others who take this game seriously; and they don't even use Sartin programs ..

Here is a post from another board: I highly respect this poster as I do with For the Lead and Bill V. for their approach to this stochastic endeavor and their message posts:

Derby Post Mortem (1250 Views)
Posted by: mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2011 10:50AM

I private messaged my thoughts on the Derby to a few people, so I'm not red boarding. Guess I'm just venting. But talk about just missing.

I used AAA and SHAK as my keys.

I made AK, DI, POF & MI my A horses.

NEH, SOL, MMM & STAY were B's.


I played $500 Oaks/Derby Doubles of JV/AK and SHAK. I was also going to play a JV/AAA double but took a pass because of the whole rail thing and what the will pays looked like. In any case I missed when JV came up empty at the top of the lane.

As far as the Derby goes, had SHAK and AAA as my keys. Had SHAK held on for 3rd I had a $200 Tri and a $2 Super. Don't know how much $ I would have taken down. I'm thinking $500k or so.

Officially I missed by 3/4 of a length, and I think i'm still drunk from last night.
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Old 04-26-2013, 10:46 AM   #23
trotman
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lone speed the day of the race was an expression, meaning I don't have my pick if any until the day of. Heck a horse could step on a stone on the walk over and get scratched which could have a bearing on how the race will shape up. The reality is I don't allow any outside influences to push me on to one horse or another and I only trust my ability. In most cases I have found the first Saturday in May, The Run For The Roses to be a mish mash of Tandems or Reversers which ever you choose to call them that really doesn't allow you to find a standout. All of the software tools each uses in the selection process is a mute point and I am included in this statement, so unless the bet is making me with value, I'm out and looking at other races or tracks. This one Saturday in May plays havoc at all tracks, and this one Derby race has their attention while they play their other races. One and all enjoy the race.
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Old 04-26-2013, 04:50 PM   #24
lone speed
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Initial evaluations....

From last two pacelines, I have eliminated Orb from win contention in my opinion and my pacelines..

Orb is one of the top two choices...I might throw out Verrazano off the Wood line...

Any opinions???
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Old 04-26-2013, 06:53 PM   #25
Bill Lyster
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If Goldencents starts, his history indicates a fast pace that he can either lead or push; Itsmyluckyday pressed a fast pace and won, pressed a slower pace at 9f and lost to Orb; Orb closed against a suicide duel a couple back and his mile time for that race is one of the top ones; Orb ran further off the pace in this race, but ran significantly faster splits in this race that he ultimately won, indicating the ability to adapt to fast or slow paces - I cannot eliminate him; Verrazano has the right running style but his best mile is 12th best, so I have no problem eliminating him based on that.

I still want to wait and see if we can read anything into the really fast time turned in by Gov Charlie by watching what happens in Fridays Oak. Bafferts filly won her race there in 141.0 so if she shows well on Friday it would validate the fast time run by GC.

Bill
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Old 04-26-2013, 07:17 PM   #26
trotman
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Bill 20 horses will get shoe horned into the gate come May 4th, this alone will alter many horses pace scenarios so come the Wednesday for post position draws IMO will give me an idea as to or if a horse can deal with it on the break or can get into the mix without altering his best run style.
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Old 04-26-2013, 07:38 PM   #27
Bill V.
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Kentucky

Here is my rough look
Based on using only grade 1 or 2 plus races, and only using the last line
for those races,
Here are my Phase 1 readouts. I will warn that I had to guess on track variants
as I did not see them in the PP's from post 15

I threw out Verrazano for the win because of running style
also out for win because of low TRP's are Orb, Over, Palace, and Its my

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Old 04-26-2013, 08:07 PM   #28
atkinsrr
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Thx for that print out Bill...how did Goldencents come up on TPR??
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Old 04-26-2013, 08:16 PM   #29
lone speed
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Imho....

I also threw out Black Onyx and Charming Kitten...turf horses with low energy numbers...I also threw out Falling Sky...

Looks like Titletown Five will be the pace if he gets enough points from Derby Trial...
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Old 04-26-2013, 08:19 PM   #30
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20120701 STATS - Post Position Stats.pdf This is why I say wait till the draw.
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