$1.11 ROI flat Betting top two @ the Big "A" - Pace and Cap

froggy · 11-07-2011, 12:38 PM

The first three days at Aqu I found 21 playable races.
52% win betting two horses @ $8.47 average mutuel for an $9.20 profit for three days.
I bet 21 exacta box's with the top three @ $2. Total cost each box $12.
Won 10 @ $113.75 average mutuel for $885.50 profit for the first three days.
All I did was throw out the low APV horses even if they were in the top three.
"Rdss Default Mode".

Thanks Ted and Bill and Richie and all the other great folks on "Pace and Cap".

Froggy

Ted Craven · 11-07-2011, 01:34 PM

Congratulations Froggy! Low APV as an elimination factor...!

What are your race selection filters: e.g. Maiden, 2YO, number of low odds favourites, etc? And, general paceline selection strategy?

Are you still using the old Energy program in conjunction, or straight up RDSS?

TIA,

Ted

froggy · 11-07-2011, 02:01 PM

Ted,

This was straight up Rdss.
Best of last 3, a few 4 or 5 because of slop races.
Then eliminated those with low APV.
I hit the first exacta on the first race of the first day for $360.50 and that gave me enough courage to continue swinging.
I didn't eliminate on the basis of distance or surface. I did thow out some that were away for like 400+ days and one that was away for 1500 days.
Any race will do, those with 5 FTS or grade 3
Just used the best of the last three and let the Rdss do the work.

I'll post the races in case any wants to know about which pace lines were used.

Froggy

Ted Craven · 11-07-2011, 07:15 PM

Froggy,

I know I have been waiting for Aqueduct to begin again - because I know then Froggy will be back in action, and some previous years of yours have been highly instructive.

How about posting 1 race a day (until you get tired of it) - after the fact is no problem, because this is a learning exercise, not a self-promotion exercise. Just the final screen with remaining contenders and lines chosen is fine (unless you want to pull a Binder and do a whole tutorial

)

How about your favourite race so far, just to kick it off?

Looking forward (and I promise not to bet too much on your horses ...)

Ted

froggy · 11-08-2011, 11:50 AM

Wanted the #12 to win.

froggy · 11-08-2011, 12:00 PM

TPR and APV

Dorianmode · 11-08-2011, 11:10 PM

Actually I have never really studied the exotics as I should, but after reading Froggy's post last evening about the success at Aqu, in the exacta pool, I decided it was long past time to try it. I generally hop all over the country, looking for races where one or two horses have an energy advantage. Besides the nifty "my races" tab in RDSS 2.0, I also use the BRIS net Custom Card search function, that was set up for their All Ways software, (free ... if you DON'T actually "make" the Custom Card....you can select your parameters). (I basically don't really rely on anything except RDSS for evaluation). I sometimes bet a 4 horse box today, but mostly three, and I know I should be looking at the probable payoffs, to raise my percent return. I will tomorrow. But I made 80 % on an imaginary $100.00 pool today. For one day, I guess that's ok. I'm hooked. I did the pace line selection pretty much as described above, and there were a few races with extreme favorites where I know I should NOT be boxing, but "keying" but decided to just be consistent today. (Actually I think we need to do a study of TE gap advantage of extreme favorites, for validation purposes, but that's another matter). So thank you Froggy for the post.

froggy · 11-09-2011, 12:39 AM

Dorian,

Please note the heavy favorite in the above race.
I have never lost more than a dollar or two with a three horse box and then collected $300 when they ran out.

My handicapping buddy thinks nothing of putting $500 to $1000 in a race.
He keys the favorite to three or four horses with $150 to $600 total cost and walks away chewing on his hat mumbling srange words.

One guy here put $12,000 to show on a unbeatable horse in a 5 horse race. The winner paid $12 win, $9 place, and $50 to show.

For me a 3 horse box is the best way to go.

Froggy

Dorianmode · 11-09-2011, 01:55 AM

I assume you have a model, but in the above race, I would have assumed the #13 would win, because of the #1 in EPR. I have no explanation for it, but in route races I have found I can NEVER eliminate the #1 horse in EPR.

froggy · 11-09-2011, 11:02 AM

Model?
What model?
This was the first three days of racing this season.
However I do keep a Wagering Decision Chart.

Froggy

11-07-2011, 01:34 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Congratulations Froggy! Low APV as an elimination factor...! What are your race selection filters: e.g. Maiden, 2YO, number of low odds favourites, etc? And, general paceline selection strategy? Are you still using the old Energy program in conjunction, or straight up RDSS? TIA, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

11-07-2011, 02:01 PM	#3
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Ted, This was straight up Rdss. Best of last 3, a few 4 or 5 because of slop races. Then eliminated those with low APV. I hit the first exacta on the first race of the first day for $360.50 and that gave me enough courage to continue swinging. I didn't eliminate on the basis of distance or surface. I did thow out some that were away for like 400+ days and one that was away for 1500 days. Any race will do, those with 5 FTS or grade 3 Just used the best of the last three and let the Rdss do the work. I'll post the races in case any wants to know about which pace lines were used. Froggy Last edited by froggy; 11-07-2011 at 02:04 PM.

11-07-2011, 07:15 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Froggy, I know I have been waiting for Aqueduct to begin again - because I know then Froggy will be back in action, and some previous years of yours have been highly instructive. How about posting 1 race a day (until you get tired of it) - after the fact is no problem, because this is a learning exercise, not a self-promotion exercise. Just the final screen with remaining contenders and lines chosen is fine (unless you want to pull a Binder and do a whole tutorial ) How about your favourite race so far, just to kick it off? Looking forward (and I promise not to bet too much on your horses ...) Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

11-08-2011, 11:50 AM	#5
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Wanted the #12 to win Wanted the #12 to win. Attached Images

11-08-2011, 12:00 PM	#6
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	TPR and APV TPR and APV Attached Images

11-07-2011, 12:38 PM	#1
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	$1.11 ROI flat Betting top two @ the Big "A" The first three days at Aqu I found 21 playable races. 52% win betting two horses @ $8.47 average mutuel for an $9.20 profit for three days. I bet 21 exacta box's with the top three @ $2. Total cost each box $12. Won 10 @ $113.75 average mutuel for $885.50 profit for the first three days. All I did was throw out the low APV horses even if they were in the top three. "Rdss Default Mode". Thanks Ted and Bill and Richie and all the other great folks on "Pace and Cap". Froggy

11-08-2011, 11:10 PM	#7
Dorianmode always learning Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe Posts: 277	Mr. Froggy's exacta system .... Actually I have never really studied the exotics as I should, but after reading Froggy's post last evening about the success at Aqu, in the exacta pool, I decided it was long past time to try it. I generally hop all over the country, looking for races where one or two horses have an energy advantage. Besides the nifty "my races" tab in RDSS 2.0, I also use the BRIS net Custom Card search function, that was set up for their All Ways software, (free ... if you DON'T actually "make" the Custom Card....you can select your parameters). (I basically don't really rely on anything except RDSS for evaluation). I sometimes bet a 4 horse box today, but mostly three, and I know I should be looking at the probable payoffs, to raise my percent return. I will tomorrow. But I made 80 % on an imaginary $100.00 pool today. For one day, I guess that's ok. I'm hooked. I did the pace line selection pretty much as described above, and there were a few races with extreme favorites where I know I should NOT be boxing, but "keying" but decided to just be consistent today. (Actually I think we need to do a study of TE gap advantage of extreme favorites, for validation purposes, but that's another matter). So thank you Froggy for the post.

11-09-2011, 12:39 AM	#8
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Dorian, Please note the heavy favorite in the above race. I have never lost more than a dollar or two with a three horse box and then collected $300 when they ran out. My handicapping buddy thinks nothing of putting $500 to $1000 in a race. He keys the favorite to three or four horses with $150 to $600 total cost and walks away chewing on his hat mumbling srange words. One guy here put $12,000 to show on a unbeatable horse in a 5 horse race. The winner paid $12 win, $9 place, and $50 to show. For me a 3 horse box is the best way to go. Froggy

11-09-2011, 01:55 AM	#9
Dorianmode always learning Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe Posts: 277	I forgot to add I assume you have a model, but in the above race, I would have assumed the #13 would win, because of the #1 in EPR. I have no explanation for it, but in route races I have found I can NEVER eliminate the #1 horse in EPR.

11-09-2011, 11:02 AM	#10
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Model? What model? This was the first three days of racing this season. However I do keep a Wagering Decision Chart. Froggy

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