Betting on Longshots

[mick]

This is an interesting article that I re-read periodically. It's a "Q&A" with Justin Finch, TimeForm's West Coast analyst.

http://timeformusblog.com/2015/02/19...-all-there-is/

Finch is a smart guy and if you have about 20 minutes, it's worth reading. The gist is that while we think we know things, we really don't. A horse race is inherently unpredictable and some are down right chaotic. Post-time favorites do win a third of the time, but it's the other two thirds that make this game so interesting. And if you're willing to put in the time and have the courage to bet the prices, profitable.

BTW, he mentions Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the ultimate contrarian stock trader who makes fortunes on market disasters. I've read his "Fooled by Randomness" and plan to read his other books.

A lot of this is in the back of my mind when I'm about to bet on a Tier 3 horse going off at 15-1 and on the PPs, doesn't look like he has a chance. But we really don't know how the horses will run and RDSS has found something in a paceline that just might be significant. I'm writing this after I took a thrashing today but I can hardly wait until tomorrow's first race. No, my wife doesn't understand but she loves me anyway.

[mick]

After a solid first quarter, I have been shortening up, so to speak, and for the last couple of weeks, have had little success wagering. Time for a layoff for this old horse. I need a freshener to get ready for Derby Day!

So, rather than betting, I have been reading Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan." Great book! If you're looking for something to read, I would recommend it. It's not about horse racing but there's much in it for a horse player to think about.

[The Pook]

Have a good rest Mick.

I have seen the term Black Swan used elsewhere in investing, namely The Contrarian Investors 13. It is a book by Benj Gallander and it has a picture of a black swan on the cover. About contrarian investing it refers to black swans as home runs with the bases loaded, multiple baggers, or any superior ROI. I am sure your book references the same.

They are what we wait for. They are what keeps us going. They can only be had by being contrarian. Which if you are into this methodology you are.

Glad to see you had a good first quarter. I too did well. My black swans came mostly in January but that is the nature of our game as fluctuations can be severe. The sooner a player can measure success over longer terms the better.

Hope to see you back in a few weeks.

Pook

[mick]

Hey, Pook! Always good to hear from you, friend.

You are spot on with black swans. Mr. Taleb uses the term in a bigger sense, like unpredictable, world-altering events that turn everything, and in particular the stock market, on its head (e.g. the 9/11 attacks, the sub-prime mortgage debacle, and so forth). But his arguments and his points scale down nicely to horse racing.

He's brilliant, articulate, and entertaining. It's an exceptional book and I recommend it. What makes it doubly good for me is that I keep hearing "wagercapping" in my head as I read. I sincerely doubt that Nassim Taleb has ever heard that word and it is certainly not on the written page. But while he and Doc Sartin are separated by years and years, I believe those two men were/are on slightly different frequencies of the same signal.

I'm hoping to come back an inspired guy, ready to bet those Tier 3 and 4 horses at good prices.

[sureshotlink]

Mick,

Your post reminds me of a memorable quote by Doc:

" The first four finishers in the vast majority of horse races often
go by the finish line in the blink of an eye"

We as wagercappers must demand value in order to survive this game long term.

Enjoy your Sabbatical

Happy Reading!

Paul

[Old Arkie Gal]

A book that I found interesting was "Probability Theory Live" by Ion Saliu. He is a lottery/casino player who has a distinctive approach to randomness. He has some minor comments re horse racing, but it is not his focus.

[Mitch44]

One thing I learned in 20 years of service in the Army is that theory and demonstrated performance are entirely two different things. Its like a new Lt. coming from West Point, brilliant mind and education however has two left feet and couldn't find his way out of a wet paper bag. With time, training and the correct guidance and tools some go on to become great leaders and Generals.

As the review said; " he admits himself, his fundamental formula of gambling has not made him rich." His theories have yet to be proven. Where does that leave us? It leaves us with the proven theories of Sartin concepts which evolved over many thousands of races and years of testing.

The Sartin road isn't a smooth journey and like the Bataan Death March many along the way fall by the wayside. However its theories have been proven and no others have surpassed it. Its an earned degree that still requires proper application and experience to rid oneself of two left feet and obtain demonstrated performance.

My journey took many years before that light bulb got turned on. Sartin's brilliant mind was able to read others theories and relate that to horseracing such as Entropy. Obviously an exceptional individual that few can duplicate. Grasping that relationship to horseracing he then proved those theories through years of testing.

Unless you have a brilliant mind like a Sartin or Bradshaw and are ready to test those theories over many years and thousands of races the answers aren't contained in books of theory. No the answers are all contained within the Sartin writing and teachings which now are all consolidated in RDSS. He has cleared the road of obstacles and mines for us.

Mitch44

Mitch44

[Old Arkie Gal]

Ted, an apt description of Saliu and I smiled when I read your comments. I do not subscribe to using his theory, theories for horseracing. They may work for the lottery and or casino but that is not my focus. I'm not sure but I don't think that he has academic credentials or honors that would add credibility to his work. Now I do think that his theories related to skips, frequencies, combinations, and etc. has some virtue when applied to his focus of games of chance. It may be possible to apply those approaches to Pick 6s, but I don't play them. I am not a mathematician and certainly don't claim that aptitude, but I like to keep an open mind to those ideas or approaches that may have some use to me. It seems to me that Saliu does not discount randomness but says why not look at those things which may be unique to random occurrences and use them to the players advantage. I have also found that his book is more readable (after 2 reads) than material that he posts on his site. I have not done any testing of his theories and don't intend to do so. I just like his ideas and maybe if I ever play Pick 6s I will do a little testing and of course I would never ignore the genius of Sartin and Bradshaw.
Pat

[papajohn3times]

Hi Mick
I guess I am right with you,losing BIG on both breeder’s cup days. So I too am taking some time off to recoup and re-read posts and Sartin manuals. My main problem was betting.hurrying thru races and no passing bad races. I look to be back around the middle of Feb,anxious for the pre-derby races
Take care my friend
Papa John

[fastcharlie55]

I like to use Bris quick play comments to select races for a L.S. It breaks it down tp type of race, number of races, percent of favorites that win, then <5/1, >5/1<10/1 >10/1
with break down of the percentage of winners in each category. I have done well with his info and my own handicapping.