Pace question..

[cl14]

I'm new to the board and wanted to start with a general question i had that needed clarification on.

I've read Tom Brohamer's MPH - along with his 'original' in the library. In it, when making his models he talks about the races to stay away from (ie...the lowest claiming). He also says to stay away from the top races, so that those middle claiming up to allowance are in the sweet spot.

For Stakes races (any Grade), are the profiles applicable or since these horses are typically the 'best of the best' they can overcome a typical bias that lower class horses can't? Perhaps another way to ask it.. Are the same methods of using pace applicable in Stakes races but just in a different way?

Thanks.

[Bill V.]

Welcome to Pace and Cap

Sorry I don't know you by name. Your question is a very good one
I don't think RDSS or the modern methodology dos programs adjusts
the readout to stakes or high allowance races.

Users of the older dos program were instructed to use the 2 adjust
for stakes / high allowance races

Phase 1 users with models probably will focus on the LPR readout and TPR
in the better races.

MPH is an vital read for students of the methodology.
But the modern methodology treats all races to the match up
of the horses good, bad or middle of the road.

Bill

[cl14]

so in terms of 'modern' methodology - which resources should i focus on in terms of learning the fundamentals?

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by cl14

so in terms of 'modern' methodology - which resources should i focus on in terms of learning the fundamentals?

Hi cl14, and welcome!

In the RDSS Getting Started materials, I advise people to study closely the Follow Ups from Issues 70 onwards. It was around this point (late 1990's) that Doc began consolidating his views on the approach known as 'wagercapping' (about which much written here, and in the Follow Ups - use the Google Site Search). This combined together with 'white papers' (FU 72-74?) published on the merging of his 'deceleration relative to velocity' aka V/DC and the Line Score of older Sartin Methodology generations which had evolved from Brohamer's time into a more elegant Line Score tool (Bottom Line/Betting Line). This 'BL/BL' served to elevate and help focus attention on less likely horses paying better prices - the key to staying ahead of an evolving game in which much of the previous Methodology had proliferated to the mainstream.

For 'modern methodology' concepts, I suggest a leisurely reading and rereading - then asking questions if needed - on concepts in those issues. Posts by Bill V (and perhaps some by myself) and by For The Lead, and by others in this Teaching Forum are all worth of study as well. Everything written by Brohamer, by Jim Bradshaw and by early Methodologists about Paceline Selection and Contender identification is still valid - however today it just pays less. THUS, we have to relax our strict contender guidelines somewhat (though not inappropriately so) to include horses who the public will not like for various visual and superficial reasons, but which when examined from a Matchup and deceleration point of view - have merit - at least at a certain price.

Every measurement we can make today - every factor, every determination of Contender Status - must be measured against price, against what the public is willing to let a horse go off at. It is NO PRIZE to apply strict and 'classical' Paceline Selection and Contender guidelines only to arrive at horses the public also likes, which pay $4 - $6 dollars and which lose 2/3 of the time. We do have the tools to rate horses highly who just don't look like 'normal winners', either by a Matchup analysis of Running Styles or by Line Score and deceleration measurements. Concentrating on these - in low class including Maidens to Graded Stakes races - is where the 'Modern Methodology' shines (e.g. last weekend's G1 Rebel Stakes winner - Hopportunity, OP Race 10)

I might also suggest that acquiring the Evaluation version of RDSS and using it with several of the free Example databases (e.g. the one which accompanies many of the example races in this Teaching Forum) will help you follow along with the lessons occasionally posted here. AND permit you to identify 'mysterious' race outcomes which you can then ASK in these Forums for commentary and insight about methods to identify good bets in some of these races.

No doubt - models will help you: models of what 'winners' look like (track Profiles), as well as Decision Models (aka Brohamer Models) of factors drawn from the PPs available at the time of analyzing a given race. But consider that models will tend to have the greatest impact over a set of races which are NOT biased by a particular matchup scenario (i.e. a healthy mix of running styles - no 'too many Earlies' scenarios = Other Than Early, or no Lone Early runners like Bill V just identified). I would say that the Matchup of runners in today's race - regardless of class or surface or distance - always trumps what averaged models of many previous races at the distance surface or class tend to show show (i.e. an 'order of precedence' in your decision making, you might say).

Hope these thoughts are helpful! Please feel free to join in with specific examples of race outcomes, of race matchups, which can help us illustrate more clearly for you and everyone else some of the ideas described above, and in some of those Follow Up issues I mentioned.

Again, welcome - and good luck!

Ted

[cl14]

Thank you for the detailed response. I see what you are saying with respect to getting a good price - my background is in equity derivatives so when it comes to 'premium' this makes perfect sense.

[DocSartinLearner]

Hi cl14, welcome to Pace and Cap.
Ted Craven, and Bill V. and all the folks at Pace and Cap, I say, thank you also to Barb Craven.
cl14: If you have some knowledge about the use of Converter.zip program from www.trackmaster.com/ to apply to Modern Pace Handicapping (MPH) and so I can handicap a race from *TrackMaster TRAN_B.DEF* files, the, Can I get your PM (private message, email)?

Thanks,
DocSartinLearner(DSL)

[cl14]

Originally Posted by DocSartinLearner

Hi cl14, welcome to Pace and Cap.
Ted Craven, and Bill V. and all the folks at Pace and Cap, I say, thank you also to Barb Craven.
cl14: If you have some knowledge about the use of Converter.zip program from www.trackmaster.com/ to apply to Modern Pace Handicapping (MPH) and so I can handicap a race from *TrackMaster TRAN_B.DEF* files, the, Can I get your PM (private message, email)?

Thanks,
DocSartinLearner(DSL)

Sorry I don't follow what u mean?

[DocSartinLearner]

Originally Posted by cl14

Sorry I don't follow what u mean?

Hi, cl14, thank you for your reply.
Early next week, I'm going to get back to www.trackmaster.com/
to see if they can help me with the Converter.zip to have it up and running. I want to learn more about Pace using MPH software.

Thanks.
DSL

[atkinsrr]

Hi cl14..welcome aboard...Bill and Ted pretty well covered everything but I'd like to add a comment. Mostly I wager on stakes and higher class horses and I do keep models on the races that I handicap. You mentioned "the best of the best" yes they can overcome almost anything that a cheaper horse can do. My suggestion to you is to keep records on everything that you do and after a period of time your record keeping will change when you see what works for you the best....This sport is forever changing and over time one needs to change with it....wish you success.....Randy A.

[DocSartinLearner]

Hi Randy A, good morning,not a handicapper, but with less experience playing this game of ours. RDSS tells, among other details, the recent background information of each horse in the race. For example, it shows the outcome of the past several races in which each horse ran. It tells which horse won, placed, and showed, as well as how well the other horses in today's race fared in their past races. It also explains past track conditions for those races, how much weight was carried and, of course, how fast the horse ran each time out.

Thanks.
DSL