Pattern Recognition

[barb craven]

Here you are Mike, right there for the taking!

[mikesal57]

OUCH.....hit me again

thxs B

[Ted Craven]

Certainly Taulbot's angles (e.g. his A and B angles) point to valid observations, and you could consider them as the detailed explanation in some cases for why you should not limit yourself to the last line. Consider the best of the last 3 lines, similar distance, surface (sounds familiar... ), not just the last line. Anything can happen in a given race. Although sometimes it can mean a horse is deteriorating in form (e.g. this bad last race), sometimes it doesn't. If you're cautious, or dubious, demand a price for stepping out on a limb (I call this: insurance) - in this race, given generously.

You can look at it as an "angle" ("longshot pattern", Taulbot "A" angle, etc) and gain extra confidence that this happens from time to time, or you can just say to yourself: "who cares about that last race, there was another one just a week or so earlier, and its a cheap maiden race, and it's running again within a month, so not a cripple..." and note that all the energy measurements line up (even before hiding that favourite).

Those are the races to try to be around for; sometimes you have to bet against (and lose) or PASS several favourites (who may win, or may lose and you miss juicy longshots), but I notice Mum has 1 or 2 (sometimes more) of these kinds of hits per 20 races, and so do I (and others who have shared their wagering decision collections). It goes a long way to offset having to settle for 2-1 (net, on mutliple horses) winners, and can make hitting only 50% of your wagers still a profitable proposition.

FTL, did you have a bet on this horse (I hope )

Ted

[gl45]

Mike,

Regarding Ray's angles (A & B) they are Performance angles, and have nothing to do as long shots standing alone angles. Granted, occasionally they will produce a winner here and there, but you must go fishing to get high % of winners.
MNR angle A for 5K open claimers and under.
5.5F = 30.7 % winners
6F = 20.88 % winners
8F = 22.68 % winners

Ciao
Pino

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by gl45

Mike,

Regarding Ray's angles (A & B) they are Performance angles, and have nothing to do as long shots standing alone angles. Granted, occasionally they will produce a winner here and there, but you must go fishing to get high % of winners.
MNR angle A for 5K open claimers and under.
5.5F = 30.7 % winners
6F = 20.88 % winners
8F = 22.68 % winners

Ciao
Pino

HI Pino...nice stats and thanks...hope you can stay on , we can use your knowledge here

mike

p.s- You blocked my email address

[mikesal57]

arl 3rd..#4

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

FTL, did you have a bet on this horse (I hope )

Ted

Hello Ted, yes I did. A 'small' bet. It is difficult for me to wager on an 0-35 maiden with a 1 for 87 jockey with much confidence, even though (with the horses and lines I used) he was my #1 TPR and #1 third fraction horse. I'll take it any way I can get it though!
I'm happy to report I had a 'nicer' bet on the horse at PEN. That horse (based on the horses and lines I used) was my #2 TPR and #2 third fraction horse.
By the way, both of those posts came directly from the Las Vegas Hilton Race Book, where I was watching and wagering on those races.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

It looks like the angle produces very nice mutuals.

Were the angle winners at PEN & MNR within the top 5 RDSS or Spec160
contenders ? For I am throwing out any pattern recognition horse that
are out of the top 5 contenders. This may be an incorrect assumption on my
part.
This may be a phenomenon that just happens and is out of the
boundaries of the Sartin Methodology. If the stats show a positive R.O.I.,
and from what I have seen so far these horses produce nice prices, then
I guess you just go with it.


Thanks,

Ernie

I'm sorry, but I do not use either RDSS or Spec160. I use my own program with a considerable SARTIN flavor, but not entirely.
I'm glad to see that Barb was able to put up a screen shot for you from RDSS.