Wagercapping - "Bill V" approach in action!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by BJennet

tfm,

Well-known handicapper Ernie Dahlman makes over $750,000 per annum based on a 3% edge.
-recall that William Benter used a 1000-race sample to contruct his immensely profitable handicapping model) you can do very well. Worth remembering that Benter's ROI was only 28%, but he still was able to make 35 million a year.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Since I did not know who Ernie Dahlman was, I did a Google search on him. Here's what I found.
"Ernie Dahlman is among the largest and most influential investors in horse racing wagering, betting as much as $18 million a year from his office at the Suncoast Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. A horseplayer for more than 40 years, he relies on computers for information and calls in his bets by phone."

Doing the math, when he HAS bet as much as $18 mil, with a 3% edge (or ROI) that means he would have won $540,000.
This is not $750,00 a year, but still not a bad payday!

I think "tfm" is looking at this from the standpoint of ROI based on WIN BETS. I doubt very much that Ernie Dahlman is wagering on the WIN position only.
I am of the opinion that people pushing money through the windows with both hands are playing the exotic bets. Very large pick 6's and etc.

Also, I do not know who William Benter is and at this point wasn't real interested in finding out. If this guy is pulling down $35 mil a year, he's pushing $125 mil through the windows, at the rate of 28% ROI. Again, I seriously doubt that he is betting WIN only. In fact, I doubt that he is EVER making a WIN bet. Like the guy mentioned above, this man is probably going after large exotic pools. Perhaps even playing in places OTHER THAN the US. And I don't mean Canada. Winning money is winning money no matter what your approach, but if I am reading "tfm" correctly, again, he is looking at WIN betting, not exotics, so I doubt that any of this is meaningful to "tfm" although it sounds very exciting.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Since I did not know who Ernie Dahlman was, I did a Google search on him. Here's what I found.
"Ernie Dahlman is among the largest and most influential investors in horse racing wagering, betting as much as $18 million a year from his office at the Suncoast Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. A horseplayer for more than 40 years, he relies on computers for information and calls in his bets by phone."

Doing the math, when he HAS bet as much as $18 mil, with a 3% edge (or ROI) that means he would have won $540,000.
This is not $750,00 a year, but still not a bad payday!

I think "tfm" is looking at this from the standpoint of ROI based on WIN BETS. I doubt very much that Ernie Dahlman is wagering on the WIN position only.
I am of the opinion that people pushing money through the windows with both hands are playing the exotic bets. Very large pick 6's and etc.

Also, I do not know who William Benter is and at this point wasn't real interested in finding out. If this guy is pulling down $35 mil a year, he's pushing $125 mil through the windows, at the rate of 28% ROI. Again, I seriously doubt that he is betting WIN only. In fact, I doubt that he is EVER making a WIN bet. Like the guy mentioned above, this man is probably going after large exotic pools. Perhaps even playing in places OTHER THAN the US. And I don't mean Canada. Winning money is winning money no matter what your approach, but if I am reading "tfm" correctly, again, he is looking at WIN betting, not exotics, so I doubt that any of this is meaningful to "tfm" although it sounds very exciting.

FTL,

tfm didn't say anything that was specific about the nature of his play, but, in any case, why do you assume that anyone making large bets, such as Dahlman or Benter, are deriving the bulk of their profits from exotic wagering, and that it's impossible to make significant profits through any other means? Didn't anyone ever tell you that you can't prove a negative? Tom Brohamer and Dick Schmidt both made a comfortable living for years almost entirely through win betting, and other Sartin players have discussed profitable records based on win bets. ROI is ROI whether in blackjack, sports betting, or horseracing. And by that measure Bill V. is a better handicapper than Bill B..

Cheers,

B Jennet

[gandalf380]

Ernie Dahlman grew up on Long Island and was such a big bettor at Suffolk OTB that he was given an office and his own personal betting clerk. When he moved to Las Vegas, Suffolk OTB laid off three people. He used to hire a person just to look at the shoes of horses in the paddock before races. He moved to Las Vegas when he was offered up to a 10% rebate. Thus he is clearing well over a million dollars a year with the help of rebates. The reason he had to hire his own person for the shoes is that NYRA refused to post the shoe information that he required (which was which horses were wearing bends.) When they were required to do so, all of a sudden NYRA said that those type of shoes were bad for the track.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by BJennet

FTL,

tfm didn't say anything that was specific about the nature of his play, but, in any case, why do you assume that anyone making large bets, such as Dahlman or Benter, are deriving the bulk of their profits from exotic wagering, and that it's impossible to make significant profits through any other means? Didn't anyone ever tell you that you can't prove a negative? Tom Brohamer and Dick Schmidt both made a comfortable living for years almost entirely through win betting, and other Sartin players have discussed profitable records based on win bets. ROI is ROI whether in blackjack, sports betting, or horseracing. And by that measure Bill V. is a better handicapper than Bill B..

Cheers,

B Jennet

You are correct. tfm did not say anything 'specific' about the nature of his play. I was "reading between the lines", so to speak. I'm sure when he reads these posts he will confirm one way or the other.

You are also correct that there are those who successfully make profits through the WIN pool, I just doubt that those profits come anywhere near $35mil. on an individual basis.

As far as "proving a negative", I think I read or heard that somewhere before.

As to Benter, as I said, if he is making $35mil a year with a 28% ROI, then he is putting about $125,000,000 through the window. That is about 2.5mil a week. Now if that money is going into WIN pools, I would think it would drastically reduce the odds on any horse he is betting, thus making it harder to achieve the ROI stated. Also, now I don't know this for a fact, but I feel reasonably sure that more money is bet into exotic pools than there is in the W,P,S pools, by far. Also, betting into the exotic pools "hides" the money that is being bet. That is to say, there is no way for anyone to see what horses are being bet in a pick 6 pool. Same would hold true for superfecta's. In both these cases there is no money in the WIN pool "signaling" action on a particular horse. example: A trainer I know once told me, the race he would love to have a horse in and feel he had a VERY GOOD chance of winning, would be the 2nd race at CD on Kentucky Derby day. First, there is A LOT of money in the pool. It is the beginning of the day, so people are betting it up (they're not broke yet) and who is paying attention to the pools? His money would be "hidden" in the DD pool. If he came out with guns blazing after the first race, oops, to late for everyone else. He already has the bulk of his money bet in the DD.

As to Tom Brohamer, I have been fortunate enough to spend a couple of days at the track with him. I am not bragging, we don't go to dinner or drinking together, we don't call each other and discuss tomorrow's race cards, I just happen to be fortunate enough to have spent time with him at the track on a couple of occasions. That's the extent of that. However, as a result of those couple of days, I can tell you that he seized every opportunity to bet into pools OTHER THAN the WIN pool in an effort to maximize his profits.

So, there you have it.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

You are correct. tfm did not say anything 'specific' about the nature of his play. I was "reading between the lines", so to speak. I'm sure when he reads these posts he will confirm one way or the other.

You are also correct that there are those who successfully make profits through the WIN pool, I just doubt that those profits come anywhere near $35mil. on an individual basis.

As far as "proving a negative", I think I read or heard that somewhere before.

As to Benter, as I said, if he is making $35mil a year with a 28% ROI, then he is putting about $125,000,000 through the window. That is about 2.5mil a week. Now if that money is going into WIN pools, I would think it would drastically reduce the odds on any horse he is betting, thus making it harder to achieve the ROI stated. Also, now I don't know this for a fact, but I feel reasonably sure that more money is bet into exotic pools than there is in the W,P,S pools, by far. Also, betting into the exotic pools "hides" the money that is being bet. That is to say, there is no way for anyone to see what horses are being bet in a pick 6 pool. Same would hold true for superfecta's. In both these cases there is no money in the WIN pool "signaling" action on a particular horse. example: A trainer I know once told me, the race he would love to have a horse in and feel he had a VERY GOOD chance of winning, would be the 2nd race at CD on Kentucky Derby day. First, there is A LOT of money in the pool. It is the beginning of the day, so people are betting it up (they're not broke yet) and who is paying attention to the pools? His money would be "hidden" in the DD pool. If he came out with guns blazing after the first race, oops, to late for everyone else. He already has the bulk of his money bet in the DD.

As to Tom Brohamer, I have been fortunate enough to spend a couple of days at the track with him. I am not bragging, we don't go to dinner or drinking together, we don't call each other and discuss tomorrow's race cards, I just happen to be fortunate enough to have spent time with him at the track on a couple of occasions. That's the extent of that. However, as a result of those couple of days, I can tell you that he seized every opportunity to bet into pools OTHER THAN the WIN pool in an effort to maximize his profits.

So, there you have it.

FTL,,

Your main point, that no one can make substantial profits (a living wage) from win betting has been refuted. Obviously what really interests you is the fortune made by Benter, and given the distraction, I'm sorry I included him as an example. All of Benter's play was in Hong Kong for the specific purpose of being able to bet into its huge pools without having it affect his odds. He bet both straight and exotic pools, and given his high hit rate, had action of some kind in nearly every race.

Re Brohamer, I believe you're wrong in claiming that any kind of exotic betting was a significant factor in his play, especially based on only a couple of days of observation of the kind that was available to hundreds of Sartin clients. Jim Quinn and Brohamer spent an entire winter meet at Santa Anita playing together, with Quinn documenting their decisions and bets on a day-to-day basis. From this, it's clear that he was primarily a win bettor. Dick Schmidt, self-acknowedged as primarily a win bettor, spent years working closely with Brohamer and also described him as primarily a win bettor. Lastly, Brohamer often described himself this way. This doesn't mean he never bet exactas or any other kind of exotic - just that they weren't a substantial part of his income.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by gandalf380

Ernie Dahlman grew up on Long Island and was such a big bettor at Suffolk OTB that he was given an office and his own personal betting clerk. When he moved to Las Vegas, Suffolk OTB laid off three people. He used to hire a person just to look at the shoes of horses in the paddock before races. He moved to Las Vegas when he was offered up to a 10% rebate. Thus he is clearing well over a million dollars a year with the help of rebates. The reason he had to hire his own person for the shoes is that NYRA refused to post the shoe information that he required (which was which horses were wearing bends.) When they were required to do so, all of a sudden NYRA said that those type of shoes were bad for the track.

gandalf,

Dahlman was a legendary character in the NY area for years. I only got many of the details of his story when he was profiled by the NY Times about a decade ago after he had moved to Vegas. As you probably know, his sometime handicapping partner was songwriter Chip Taylor ('Wild Thing', 'Angel of the Morning'), who is also the brother of actor John Voight. They grew up in Yonkers, NY together.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by BJennet

FTL,,

Your main point, that no one can make substantial profits (a living wage) from win betting has been refuted. Obviously what really interests you is the fortune made by Benter, and given the distraction, I'm sorry I included him as an example. All of Benter's play was in Hong Kong for the specific purpose of being able to bet into its huge pools without having it affect his odds. He bet both straight and exotic pools, and given his high hit rate, had action of some kind in nearly every race.

Cheers,

B Jennet

I think you got tangled up along the way.
The best reply I can make is to cut and paste excerpts from my prior post.

Nowhere do I say that earning a living wage was not possible through WIN betting, therefore, there was nothing to be refuted.

I went on to clearly state," I think "tfm" is looking at this from the standpoint of ROI based on WIN BETS". This was my opinion based on my interpretation of his post. At the end of my post I again clearly state,"if I am reading "tfm" correctly, again, he is looking at WIN betting, not exotics, so I doubt that any of this is meaningful to "tfm" although it sounds very exciting". So I was offering an opinion based on how I read his post.

Further, with regard to William Benter, I clearly stated," Also, I do not know who William Benter is and at this point wasn't real interested in finding out". So that rules out any perceived interest on my part. You obviously got that wrong.

And further along in my post I stated,"this man is probably going after large exotic pools. Perhaps even playing in places OTHER THAN the US. And I don't mean Canada". So I obviously had a leg up on the Hong Kong situation, a fact that you disclosed in your most recent post. So it has now become clear that William Benter does NOT play in the US and DOES enjoy his abundant income from exotics.

With regard to Brohamer, I only stated what he and I talked about and that which I observed first hand. I am certainly not in any position to say that he was less than truthful with me.

I think we finally have a complete picture. Thank you for the additional information and insight.

[Ted Craven]

http://www.contingenciesonline.com/c...0090506/?pg=22

http://www.laytheodds.com/articles/5...ing/Page1.html

http://www.chatham.edu/academics/benter_index.cfm


FWIW, he is not in the racing business anymore (CEO of medical transcription company in Pittburgh). Surely, many former associates and adversaries carry on though in Hong Kong and elsewhere.

[Ted Craven]

If anyone else had a Wager Decision Form they would like to post (good, bad, break-even), and regardless of software used, either post it here in this thread or send it for anonymous posting to Bill V, RichieP or me. If there are more of these, I'll create a separate Topic somewhere (Handicapping Forum?) and organize them there.

A 20 race cycle proves to yourself you can do it, also catches the interest of others new to this approach to the game. A 100 race collection starts to look more serious: maybe there's something going on here. A 1000 races (and a positive ROI) is a paradox: one the one hand, you've got nothing to prove, so why bother; on the other hand doing so is a form of giving back. Think of all those hundreds of Wager records published in the Follow Ups: they weren't just for bragging rights - they prove it can be done.

We'll presume for now that the entries on such forms were recorded (preferably wagered) before the race ran.

Ted

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by BJennet

FTL,

but, in any case, why do you assume that anyone making large bets, such as Dahlman or Benter, are deriving the bulk of their profits from exotic wagering

Cheers,

B Jennet

In addition to the articles Ted posted, I thought this might be of interest to you. It's a little on the lengthy side, but has a lot of information. This will give those reading an opportunity to read about where large profits are being made, who is making the large profits and the primary pools that those profits are coming from. The article also talks about the US and what opportunities do or do not present themselves there.
Hope this helps.

http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com/page19.html