Questions About Hides, Passing & V/DC

[Because I Can Jim]

As some of you may be aware, I do not look at the BLBL, Primary or E/L + TPR tabs. I stick pretty much to the Segments tab in my analysis.

However, I am always looking to learn and improve what I am doing. Therefore, currently I am seriously focusing on the concept fo V/DC (VDC).

This focusing is now taking me into the BLBL, Primary tabs and older software programs that are discussed in the Follow Ups such as Synthesis and Validator. (I do not have these programs nor the instructions for them to help explain the use of the programs.)

In trying to glean how the programs were used, my thinking is that pacelines and contenders are selected. Then the readouts are provided for "Before Hides" and then "After Hides." (I am trying to apply the concept of hides and how to use VDC most effectively in RDSS2. And yes, I have Goggle Searched.) From the "After Hides" the wagering decisions are made for win wagering and "Before Hides" for exotic wagering.

What I am not understanding is:
1) What is being hidden?
2) Why it is being hidden?
3) How does this effect the wagering decision?

That is what I don't understand. Here is what I do understand (right or wrong) to help explain what I don't understand (which comes first - the chicken or the egg? LOL) so this is purely hypothetical....

10 horses in a race. In eliminating contenders, I am "hiding" them by not selecting pacelines so that I am getting down to the true contenders in a race. I am doing this before the race is run and get the race down to 5 contenders.

It seems from the readouts in the Follow Ups that a low odds horse is being "hidden". I am assuming this low odds horse is the actual odds just prior to post time and not a low odds from the BLBL.

If this is the case, then a horse that is both lower in odds and better in ranking than the eventual winner is hidden which raises the ranking of the horse that actually wins the race if it is not the low odds horse. Then from the "After Hides" I am still making my wagering decision based upon the actual odds of the horses. (Why do this at all?)

But, here is where I am really going around in circles, I am eliminating the low odds horse from consideration which also means I am losing the race if that horse wins because I am making a wagering decision with the winning true contender missing from consideration. If I do this say 5 times on a racing card of 10 races, don't handicap 2 races due to maiden FTSs and pass 1 or 2 races, it seems to me that the ROI on the 1 or 2 longer priced wins (if I win them 100% of the time) is seriously compromised.

And that also brings me back to passing a race. If "Before Hides" my two choices include a horse or horses that does not meet my wagering criteria of betting two horses to win at odds of 5/2-1 or greater, then it is easy to pass the race. But, if I "Hide" the low odds horse, then how do I know to pass the race when especially if my two choice after hides have odds that warrant wagering on, especially when I think the low odds horse obviously has a shot at winning the race?

I hope I am making myself clear. This idea of hides has my head spinning.

Or........

Is the an outdated concept that is no longer applicable and I should not be wasting my energy on it? If that is the case, then what about VDC and how is it used?

In reading the Follow Ups (70 thru 88), I struggle to separate various concepts for the individual software programs. For example, there is Validator and then I read that there is a Validator 3. No matter. What matters is the concept of VDC that is being presented and attempting to apply it to RDSS2.

Anyway, any open thoughts or comments about where I am right in my thinking or wrong in my thinking is appreciated.

Thanks,
Jim

[Bill V.]

Hello Jim

Hiding the favorite Hmmm. Lets start with that since it may help out later when we talk about VDC rankings

First off, the practice of hiding the favorite is for win betting only
If you play exotics you needed two readouts, Before hides and after hides

Here is a video I made, It was easier to talk and show hiding in action
as just writing about it might not be clear.

Here are two screen shots to help as you watch the Video

Here is the PA derby before hides



Here is the PA derby after hiding the low odds favorite # 7



and the off or near post time odds

7. 2.30
3. 3
4. 17.8
1. 2.5
6. 6.1
1a. 2.5
2. 12.6
5. 8.2


Hope you enjoy the video
hello hides.mp4

[Bill V.]

Just some stats from Parx

Here is a problem with hiding the low odds horse under 5/2 and then betting into the race. At this percentages I find it hard to get anywhere.

In my last 1200 races at Parx
The winner paid less than 2.50/1 to win 492 times or 41 percent

Not that anybody could or would play every race for 1200 consecutive races
But if you had. its almost a 50-50 chance right off the top you will lose.
Another problem is wrong place wrong time, You can go many races and run into streaks were low odds horses are winning I have had 10 out of 15 race
streaks were a low odds horse won
here is a snip from my DB I have marked a 100 anytime a horse won under 2.50 /1 they come along pretty often don't they.




I tried to make paper bets wager capping and hiding any horse under 5/2 for win. Ted and I talked about this test I was doing at the recent Pace and Cap
day at Del Mar. I have decided to stop the test because after 600 races
I was just about $100 ahead. yes hiding the favorite will probably make
you a profit but can I live off of a $100 profit after 600 races ? No .

The problem also is the strings of races were the winner pays less that 5/2
is hard to take emotionally. Also don't forget the fact that your betting two horses so you also have that built in loss to deal with.

Bill

[Because I Can Jim]

Hey Bill,

Thanks for that video. That was a big help in first, understanding the process and second, confirming a lot of my thinking.

The biggest thing was in eliminating the low odds horse that wins eats at the profitability of the longer priced horses when it wins. (I wasn't going crazy in my testing!!! Which is vastly different from the readouts of the Wagering Decision Charts found in the Follow Ups.) The only thing I could come up with was the win mutuel would be high enough and the number of times one had it, overcomes the number of times one would miss when a low odds horse won.

Your explanation of the way the pools work from way back when vs. now was something I had not even thought about and can easily see the effects it has on a handicapper's wagering. I too wait until the very last moment and more often hit the Cancel Wager icon because of the drop in odds those few seconds before wagering is closed.

So, thank you for that Bill. Very helpful as I am not barking up the wrong tree.

And.....

As you stated, it begs for more questions.

But,.....

For now, your thoughts on the relationship VDC with other factors would be greatly appreciated.

My take from reading the Follow Ups is that VDC grew from Entropy and was part of the Validator program. It falls on the verge of being a black box number and was presented as a validation of the other readouts so that some of the decision making was reduced when analysing some of the other readouts. And in the Follow Ups one would "go with" VDC instead.

Then there is the Best VDC, Last 3 pace line selection strategy to boot.

I realize that picking pacelines is a personal thing. I can see how running that strategy can be useful as a learning aide to someone first learning to pick pacelines (I find myself at times changing lines due to the selected line not being what I consider as "comparable", but, that is due to experience and what the computer cannot decipher as only we humans have the ability to make "judgements").

But, once I have my lines, I am not sure where VDC takes me when it comes to further contender selection and analysis of the race.

I use VDC, but, in a rudimentary way (more in the fashion of a vailidator) and thus my further study and the questions arising from that study.

Your thoughts and guidance are appreciated.

Thanks again for your help.
Jim

[Bill V.]

Hello Jim

My comments will be in bold type and there is a short video about VDC after my comments


You wrote
I would like to help you with your questions about the VDC readout

For now, your thoughts on the relationship VDC with other factors would be greatly appreciated.

My take from reading the Follow Ups is that VDC grew from Entropy and was part of the Validator program. It falls on the verge of being a black box number and was presented as a validation of the other readouts so that some of the decision making was reduced when analysing some of the other readouts. And in the Follow Ups one would "go with" VDC instead.

Yes your right on the money

Then there is the Best VDC, Last 3 pace line selection strategy to boot.

This is something that Ted added to RDSS but it is not a pace line selection method used in the Sartin Methodology VDC was not intended to be a line selection tool. I am not saying its wrong to use this but remember Doc did not
set up VDC for pace line selection.


I realize that picking pacelines is a personal thing. I can see how running that strategy can be useful as a learning aide to someone first learning to pick pacelines (I find myself at times changing lines due to the selected line not being what I consider as "comparable", but, that is due to experience and what the computer cannot decipher as only we humans have the ability to make "judgements").

That is why I feel the various pace line selection methods offered on RDSS
are "'Helpful" but I still feel pace line selection should be adjusted to the match up and the class of the race.

But, once I have my lines, I am not sure where VDC takes me when it comes to further contender selection and analysis of the race.
I use VDC, but, in a rudimentary way (more in the fashion of a vailidator) and thus my further study and the questions arising from that study.

Your thoughts and guidance are appreciated.

Jim
To me if your picking your pace lines in a consistent manner and making judgments rather than using the auto selection options, then going to BLBL
or other rating screens, and then your using V/DC as a validating readout
you are right on and using the readout to its intended purpose.

Here is a short video about the beginnings of the VDC readout
I also give a quick review of how the VDC readout was intended to be used.

Here is a helpful screen capture from the video

My VDC video

vdc jim.mp4

screen shot

[Because I Can Jim]

Thank you Bill!

It helps to have someone whom you could rely upon to help steer you in the right direction by either confirming things or giving a different way of looking at something. ie. how VDC can about and is used.

And as for videos, funny,....in the first video as soon as you started you alluded to having made the video more than once. But, in the vdc video at about the 7 minute mark I was thinking about how much time it would have taken to write that in a thread.

As for myself, I make videos as hoc where I work. Videos get mroe information across much more easily. However, for the people who are making them, I notice it takes a bit before they get mentally adjusted to make them so that they are not doing them again and again and again.... Also, there is the making a mistake, omitting something or taking too much time factors which causes us to think we have to redo them and in redoing the videos we eat up as much time as if we had written the thread int he first place. Don't worry about it. Your videos are a great improvement to be able to convey thoughts. Eventually, you will not be bothered by these factors and we as viewers will "get over it."

Anyway, thanks for the clarification on VDC and especially the hides. It is definitely giving me something more to think about.

Best of luck,
Jim

[Lt1]

Hi guys. I faced a problem with low paying horses winning at Aqu way back when. I sent a letter to Doc and he published a response in a follow up where Wager Capper submitted several wager decision forms where he played the low paying horse as his 1st bet and his 2nd bet was on a horse paying at least 12-1. I believe that figure is right. Going to try and find what issue it was to confirmed that. Will let you know when I find it.

[Lt1]

Hey Jim found it FU #75 starting on pg 20.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Jim found it FU #75 starting on pg 20.

Thanks Jim

I do take a few takes before I get it right, I don't mind because I feel
the videos say what I'm thinking better than my writing when it gets complicated.

Hey Tim nice article in Follow Up 75 Its nice to remember those times,
I used to send Doc 20 race Wager Decision Forms all the time. many of mine
made it into the follow up.

Doc had a nice teaching tool and those WDF's were a great way to keep
records but as he says some handicapping knowledge is needed too.

I always enjoyed seeing 20 race cycles in the follow up, The success of other inspired me to have good ones too.

I never really got the 12-1 idea. I was missing 6 - 7 - 8 to 1 winners
Eventually I just went back to betting the first horse of the top 3
BLBL that would pay over $7.00 and then look for the horse with the best readouts in all the "total" corollaries , Total energy Total speed and Total Pace Potential, and FX for my second bet that paid over $7.00

[Lt1]

I also sent Doc several forms and he published my Thoromation Spot Play form in FU54. I think the 12/1 was to compensate for so many low paying winners during that time frame. I play like you Bill my best low paying horse @5/2 and the best overlay of the top 3. I have now modified it to the top 2 fitting my track model for the dist of the race. Been working well so far.