Race 5 The Marathon - Hat Method

[Bill Lyster]

14 horses entered
Top horses by class rating: 2,1,7,11,4,14
Top APV horses: 1,4,2,14,10

I used hard copy of the PPs for Euros. The info does not translate correctly in RDSS, so for distance, grade of race, purse size and time, I used the hard copy info

Notes per horse:
1 - S - OC 100 highest class win, may go farther, but best G1 is 3rd; best mile 137.90 closing 11-5-5 to the stretch call
2 - P - 4 time grade 1 winner; most races between 1.5 and 2+ miles; last two cycles prepped twice, then won a grade 1; best results on European good turf courses; never raced on dirt is only ??; looks like a presser but can't get a time comparison. On my ticket on class, APV and relative performance vs field
3 - S - G2 placed - 138.6 - 4-4-4
4 - S - G2 two time winner - 136.2 - 8-7-7; no dirt races
5 - SP - G1 at 2; OC 40 winner this year; appears to be big jump in class; 137 mile on poly; latest ran 2-3-3 in mile and 4-4-4 at 8.5f
6 - p or SP - G 2 winner in last 132 days ago - 140.4 probable mid pack runner but no definitive move info available;
7 - P - G3 placed but 3rd best class horse; 136.8 and runs 4-2-1
8 - S - 3rd in OC 40 race at 10F onturf; best races on turf; ran poorly in Marathon 2 yrs ago; best win NW2x - 5-2-2, but horse is only a claimer
9 - P (probably) - G2 placed - off 161 days 136.8 2nd back; no position info;
10- P - G3 win two yrs ago, won Marathon 2 hrs ago, since only allowance win; 137.8 - 7-4-2
11- EP - G3 win @ Hastings; great times on that bull ring two in a row; 136.4 and probably on lead 1-1-1 2 back (Note: 2nd best mile time from a 3 turn mile track!!)
12- P - G3 in early 2011; claimed twice at Hollywood; won at FPX 100K - 137.6 ran 2-2-1
13- E (maybe) from comments; no dirt races; G3 last year probably on lead and fading; lost big to Fame and Glory only recent apparent meeting; no mile times available
14- P - Two G2 wins last year, no wins this year recent on dirt at Fresno and FPX - 138.4 runs 3-4-3 or 4-4-4 ugh!

Best mile is from 8 at 135.5 running 5-2-2 - just too cheap for me - OUT
then #4 at 136.2, no dirt, running 8-7-7, out for win
then 11 at 136.4, running 1-1-1 (might be gest time since its from 3 turn track)
then 7 at 136.8, running 4-2-1
then 9, 136.8 but off 161 days
then 12 137.6, running 2-2-1

My two picks are the 7 and 11, but the 2 might be the most accomplished runner in the field, except for the no dirt angle.

Good luck to you all