Barb Craven - December

[barb craven]

Prx r 6
$60 w, $40 p 2
loss. I was asked by Bill why I had chosen this horse and I gave him my screen shots and reasoning. I was wrong, but this was my thought process.

[barb craven]

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Prx r 6
$60 w, $40 p 2
loss. I was asked by Bill why I had chosen this horse and I gave him my screen shots and reasoning. I was wrong, but this was my thought process.
Attachment 32646

Barb This is the problem with using the adjusted numbers only
More so when you change distance and surface Doc says the only time he looks at the original pacelines is when a horse changes from sprint to route and route to sprint

"Hat Said" is fine if he did in this context,

Please if at any time when ever you are perusing a Manual, or Follow Up
please right back and send me the link where it is written its ok to use
a turf router in a dirt sprint when the horse has not previous success
on the dirt.


From Pace Makes The Race
page 60

"Going from routes to sprints is much easier. First off, few true routers
( is the 2 a true anything at 1-41) can sprint. We can get into a long discussion of how fast twitch vs slow twitch muscle,butall you really need is right there in the racing form(original pacelines)
About the only time a dedicated router (one with no sprints showing in its
past performance chart ) goes into a sprint it is either after a long ayoff or
a series of bad races. The races after layoffs are little more than public workouts, while the others are dubious trainer maneuvers to "put some
speed into the horse" Neither type of horse is likely to be able to stay in contact with the field.
However, occasionally you'll see a horse that has proved it can sprint
( THE 2 CAN NOT ) but has been trying longer recently.
Horses that managed to lead to the second call then lose by 19 lengths in a route can pay, particulary interesting prices.

If the horse can prove it has sprinted in the past !!!!

[lone speed]

Barb,

Hello…I hope that you are doing well nowadays….

I am going to jump in here and play devil’s advocate…I agree with the arguments that Bill posted from the follow ups…..but I also support your argument for using the turf mile line to compare the running lines for this matchup…



But let’s look at the percent % Median screen of each runners…We see that #2 whose line comes from a turf line has a %median of 67.4% versus the top runner with a %median of 69.2%....Now I may not be able to explain it well with parlance to the exact terminology of the Sartin Methodology but I can tell you that the #2 horse will be forced to run a faster early pace in today’s matchup…therefore, he will not have his sustained fraction that he showed from the mile turf line…..Yes, he does show to a tilt towards early but he crawled up front in the turf race….but in today’s matchup,he is deficient in context of the parameters of the rest of the field who came off sprint races with faster early pace fractions….(I believe that Tim Y…will have a better explanation than I can)…

The #7 or #6 who have a faster early fraction, might not have to run as fast as their previous paceline, therefore the #2 horse will be at a huge disadvantage when the field turns for home…..it will be too far back or it will be force to run a faster early pace erasing whatever last fraction advantage it has over the field…..To keep it simple….I usually have a certain range that I allow each true contender to be within…say within 1.5% on the %Median parameters….

[barb craven]

Thanks for the feedback LS. I don`t really understand %median. I will start reading more but this.

[Bill V.]

Hi Lone Speed

Thats all true yet it even further supports the fact that the
2 horse is a EARLY Need The Lead horse who had no chance to
get the lead here
Its Percent Early in the race on Saturday shoots up to
over 70 % - Too Fast Too EARLY
Looking at the result chart. It broke 10th and rushed up to
try to get the lead moving to 4th position but less than 1 BL
As can be easly checked from the original pace lines of the early
sprinters in the race, the early pace was going to be too fast. What happened on Saturday should be no shock.
The 2 used all its energy to try to get the lead and once again
could not keep up and could not pass any horses so all the RDSS
readouts are showing it to have an ability that its 1 -40 record as
running patterns say is an illision This is percisly why Doc says
Check and make sure the route horse can compete with the fastest
sprinters in the race

I wonder how RDSS will adjust its pace line the next time Johnny runs
but I doubt the last line will be a + race

[barb craven]

Aqu r7
$60 w 1
$40 w 4

[barb craven]

Posted this too late.

[barb craven]

Tp r1
$40 w, $60 p 3

[barb craven]

Was debating putting place bets on both the 3 and 8. As Rich always tells e go with your first instinct. Didn't and lost.