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Old 08-02-2016, 06:58 AM   #1
RichieP
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Just wondering if any Matchers looked at last nights 7th race from PID?

Projected pace from last line of 48.6 (on the lead 1c #5) and 113.7 (on the lead 2nd call #1).

Punching in those times to RDSS to see what "lights up" - interesting result

What was Mark talking about when he said he starts from the bottom of the pp's and works his way up?? Totally opposite of most players.

Off to work, have a great day!
Richie
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Old 08-02-2016, 09:46 AM   #2
The Pook
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Hi Rich.... I get your point but you would really have to be in the zone to see this one. Working from the bottom up that line does stand out but then you have to have ask yourself is this horse still a horse. Maybe. Based on that third line back. But I still find it to be quite a leap of faith. Kudos to anyone taking that leap.

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Old 08-05-2016, 05:53 PM   #3
Mark
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Win % vs ROI

I haven't even looked at the results. However, my question is a weighty one. I managed sales people for 30 years and while there were numerous personality types, they basically fell into two categories: Security motivated and incentive motivated. The first group were solid people and they were often the best students, on time for meetings and just solid citizens but they were rather risk averse. The latter group were the home run hitters. They were the contest winners and the high producers generally. Wave a Hawaii trip or some serious cash in front of them and they went nuts closing deals, digging up new prospects. Back then we cold called and they would beat the streets for new business. This was during the 80's and 90's with Canon and Panasonic mostly. Facsimile equipment, color laser copies, 50 copy a minute copiers, some pretty pricy stuff. We recruited from SC, UCLA, Loyola, hell I had a kid that played middle linebacker for Harvard who became one of my Regional Managers.
I don't think there is much difference between betting the horses and selling. We all have our risk limits that we are comfortable with. We tend toward the secure or aggressive and our tolerance for risk and handicapping methods will reflect that.
Personally, if you are picking pacelines from the last 3 comparable you probably fall in the risk averse category and are more security motivated. You may hit a nice paying horse from time to time but generally you have to hope that your win percentage is high enough to overcome the low mutuels you frequently receive. I don't have the temperament for this. I would rather wait for a horse that I can justify going back 5 or more lines on or whose crappy recent form is excusable based on my experience than bet low priced horses. Maybe my win percentage isn't as high as some but my average mutuel is double digit.
Handicapping and betting the horses can be a grind and not fun. Getting beat a neck on a 2/1 horse by some outsider who you can look back on and see the line(s) that would put him right there is torture to me.
You have to ask yourself honestly, what is my risk threshold? Why do I handicap the way I do? What are my motivations? And more importantly, am I willing to change. Because betting these low price horses is like driving in rush hour traffic, most days you get home all pissed off and your family life can't help but suffer.
I'm a senior citizen now and am enjoying my Social Security and Medicare. I don't have to go out there into the rat race to make a living. I receive a healthy income from a company I co-founded in the late 90's so whether I make money betting the horses or lose a little, it is no big deal. But frankly, I hate to lose, have always been very competitive and never have wasted a lot of time on profitless ventures. So my perspective may be a little skewed. However a little introspection is always a worthy endeavor and if playing the horses doesn't bring some fun and entertainment into your life, maybe something else will!
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Old 08-05-2016, 06:22 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Thank You Mark

Richie

Whenever I am struggling or come back after a break I find my pace line selections need little freshness, that is I go back to basics,
This is from one of my favorite manuals

I think Doc would approve going back to line 3
Its not a terrible line, Its not a all time best because I see a 71 ASR at the bottom, Its only 69 days old
Line 2 seems like too high a class N4
Line 1 is bad but I see a workout since that race 5 days ago which is a plus for a cheap horse

Here is what I like to go back to

From The Howard Sartin manual The Dynamics
of Incremental Velocity Page 16-17

Pacelines

"Appropriate Pace Line selection is essential to success in utilizing the Dynamics
of Incremental Velocity. I say appropriate rather than right or wrong because they
are morality terms.
Appropriate means a line that represents a contender's true ability and running
style when IN FORM. It should be a line where it ran competitively against the kind
of horses it will face today.
Since this work is an overview of the subject at hand, we will not go into detail
in the manner ofpaceline selection. I will, however,offer some guide lines

1. Avoid using a horse's BEST line unless it was RECENT ( within 40 days)
2. Avoid using lines from Maiden Wins unless todays race is carded for
Non-Winners of one except maiden or claiming
3. Never use a truly BAD paceline.You're totally defeating the purpose of
handicapping which is to select winners
4. DO NOT USE TROUBLE LINES
5. Let a horses AVERAGE PURSE VALUE and or Class Factor determine how far back
you go for a line.
6. The concept of last race recency of a line is exaggerated

Looking at a sequence of 1000 races that we actually won, our average pace line used
was 2.35 This simply means the average was closest to the 2nd race back, but often
it was the 3rd race back. The last race was used 42% of the time. Learning to select
the proper paceline is an art that comes only with practice. Doing it over and over
is by far the best means of mastering the procedure"
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Old 08-05-2016, 06:59 PM   #5
Mark
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No offense intended Bill

As I tried to point out, different people have different tolerance for risk. I realize that you are a staunch advocate of Doc Sartin and adhere to his teachings. I have been firmly in the Jim Bradshaw camp the last 3 plus years. Although they formed a dynamic team and are largely responsible for the current state of handicapping art, still today, 20 -30 years after much of these things were written, they held completely different views on a number of subjects. The Doc was a teacher and as I understand had a group of gambling addicted truck drivers as is first set of clients. His view was to alter behavior from destructive to constructive. So I found in the Follow Ups and attending the seminars that the Doc's method of betting two horses 60 -40% and his in my opinion conservative practices were geared to prevent his clients from disastrous losing streaks. If I can paraphrase, "The cure for losing is winning!" Well, as you are probably aware this did not set too well with the Mental Health community who advised abstinence.
Jim Bradshaw used the racing form and a pencil and recommended reviewing all 10 past performance lines for consideration as predictive of today's performance. Features of his methods remain viable today because they don't lend themselves to computerization. And in my view that is why you can make real money following his teachings. I am a risk taker. At 47, I invested every dollar I had in the world into a business I co-founded and even though I retired 3 years later, I have lived well on the proceeds of the equity interest I retained as the company has grown to produce revenue exceeding $20 million annually.
As individuals we have to find our comfort zone in an endeavor in which we are wagering our money for a hoped for profit. I would bet you that 85 to 90%of today's handicappers pick pacelines from the last 3 comparable lines. Any horse that stands out from these selections gets hammered at the windows. That is a little different from the time that the Doc was most active and doing the type of research you cite. You have to invoke very subjective "Hides" and still end up betting the tote board to make two horse wagers today. My point is that it is up to each one of us to determine 1) if we are going to invest our time in wagering on the horses and 2) how we are going to do it? Are we going to bet alongside the big betting sydicates and the majority of horseplayers that are feeding the Pari Mutuel system or are we going to investigate a method that is somewhat contrarian? After all, one of the things that the Doc always talked and wrote about was his contrarian approach.
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Old 08-06-2016, 07:15 AM   #6
gl45
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Thumbs up..

Mark,
common sense tell me that by the time you decide to go solo, you analyzed a myriads of information. Also I would assume that you were not to restrictive in formulate the final decision if the investment was worth the risk. Apply the same principle to horse racing handicapping makes a capper to become contrarian. Loose the rules a bit, to make more $$.
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Old 08-06-2016, 07:45 AM   #7
RichieP
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Hi Everyone,
Here are the full pp's for the race and the result chart.

I did NOT bet the race, what I do in the morning before I leave for work is open a race or 2 from the night before(havent been wagering in over 2 months completely occupied by work/family) and look for races i like which are those with clear cut projected 1c-2c paces from last race with actual on the lead Early runners.

This is what I saw for the 7th at PID.

I hope everyone has a great day and weekend (Karen and I are putting in an irrigation system in our yard today, this should be fun! lol)

Richie
PS - Pino I hope you and yours are dong great man! Wow been a long time.
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Old 08-06-2016, 07:50 AM   #8
RichieP
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Old 08-06-2016, 07:52 AM   #9
RichieP
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Result Chart

The result chart
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Old 08-06-2016, 09:14 AM   #10
gl45
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we used to this a lot in the early days remember???? here is my take.

from Ray Taulbot 5 steps handicapping process from his private lessons, step 2 as follow:
"...Rate these horses, using the race where the winner's final time is fastest and where the horse was either close to the pace or where it finished within about 5 lengths of the winner....."

all the horses are contender except #7 is a sprinter out he goes.

1...last line......145.9
2...line 10........143.5
3...line 6..........145.3
4...line 7..........145.4
5...line 4..........145.6
6...line 6 is turf line...143.5 or line 8 is dirt line...145.3
7...out
8...line 1..........145.9

who has the fastest line???? #2 with line 10
#8 beat 1-3-5 out in a mu race
who is left
#2 #6 and #8

with just 3 factors, close to the pace, within 5 lengths and fastest final time
you had the bomb. Talking about being contrarian.....sometime I wonder.

good luck all
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