Results of Survey On % VDC Difference

[Lt1]

I decided to see if I could come up with a cut off % difference of VDC mught be used to down grade horses. I decided to use 3.5 % as the cut off. I surveyed 200 races from the following tracks Parx, Woodbine, Pimlico, Mth, Beterra and Del. All levels and surfaces from mdns[with no FTS] to Stakes were included. Here are the results
Races Winners %
200 148 74.
So if one were to downgrade with higher difference you can safely count on being right 3 out of 4 times. And if I expanded the % to 3.8 I would have gotten another 10 winner raising the win % to 79%. Please remember these results are based on my capping and your results may vary.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Nice work Tim. I have backtracked several races confirming this analysis. Most of the big races at Parx last weekend fit this info well. Other places too, in very small sample.

I am going to look at past BC cards to see how this holds up as well. Its interesting and probably different from any non-special day in that horses running for the big money are usually pointed to those races, so pacelines of the best races can be used even if out of the top three equivalent lines.

A good example recently was the boutique meet at KD, where best lines on turf at or below a 66% median energy won a lot of races.

Thanks for the hard work and great info.

Bill

[Lt1]

You are welcome Bill. Models are good for identify % med ranges for surface and dist of the track one place. I downgrade a lot of horses on this factor.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

I could see many applications of this information;

Faulty favorites might show up outside the limits you studied here.

Also, really competitive races might show up with 4-5 or 6 horses less than 3.5 or 3.8 and point to too many closely matched horses. Based on other RDSS criteria you might want to eliminate one or more of those horses. So decide on what price you would accept (Spread the bet a little) or pass if too many qualify.

Or on the other hand two low VDC horses with separation from the rest may be an interesting bet. For instance, the BC classic won by Flightline and the second place horse, Olympiad had VDC of 0.0 and 0.1 respectively, with all the other horses having a VDC% of 2.3 to 4.0. Just one example I know, but some research might tell you what you need to know in these instances.

I am sure there are other applications for interested parties to research.

Bill

[Lt1]

Right on Bill. Folks start doing surveys on things they use to see if they can find a factor[s]that can help narrow contenders. It isn't that much work.
Tim

[cratman]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I decided to see if I could come up with a cut off % difference of VDC mught be used to down grade horses. I decided to use 3.5 % as the cut off. I surveyed 200 races from the following tracks Parx, Woodbine, Pimlico, Mth, Beterra and Del. All levels and surfaces from mdns[with no FTS] to Stakes were included. Here are the results
Races Winners %
200 148 74.
So if one were to downgrade with higher difference you can safely count on being right 3 out of 4 times. And if I expanded the % to 3.8 I would have gotten another 10 winner raising the win % to 79%. Please remember these results are based on my capping and your results may vary.
Tim

I am not sure I understand. Could you provide an example?
Thanks, Mark

[Lt1]

Ok I'll post a screen shot to explain.
Tim

[cratman]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Ok I'll post a screen shot to explain.
Tim

Thanks