Ted Craven - October

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

I believe the difference in our rankings, using the same lines, is due to Val4 mode versus Default mode, yes, and perhaps the DTV settings. Here are my Config settings. It goes around and it comes around - on the long term, I am happy with the effect of the adjustments, and with Default mode. Val4 mode (and/or your DTV Min/Max settings) triumphed in this race!



When I removed the Secondary Contenders completely, there was no change (whew!) which is how it is supposed to be (i.e. Primary group is ranked independently).



Re #9 Gruenewald - I looked several times at this horse. There were only 2 line choices for this horse in today's 6f poly sprint: line 1 or line 5. Line 5 makes it look worse (worse Perceptor). In its last race, it had a steady gain of both position and beaten lengths from the get go, beating well more than half the field. It's 83 SR was the same as its last sprint (line 5) so not aberrant. It was not a Win contender, but I had it underneath in an exacta (5-2 / 5-2-11-9). It did finish a strong 3rd and was the most Late on the E/L graph, hence my main counter-energy horse.



If a horse ranks in the Top 5 Total Energy and Primary Line Score, I have come to be forgiving of 'apparently' poor finishes if they showed some serious effort. There were plenty of other horses in that race who just showed nothing in their current form cycle, and were relegated to either Secondary or Non-contenders.

Anyway, that was my reasoning for using that last line for the #9. Comments?

I wish I had the #3 ranked higher Hope you had it!

Ted

[Bill V.]

Anyway, that was my reasoning for using that last line for the #9. Comments?

Hi Ted. I see your points about the settings. Next about the 9 horse. I looked at the race from the last line I would have consider it, and maybe given it a plus within a zero but since it really rated poorly in the phase 1 TPR ratings. Using all the last lines ( as a contender selection) I see the 9 is the # 1 FF, but considering how far back it was I looked to avoid this line. I am weary of these big closers. Was the fast pace of race the reason or was the horse just the benificeray of passing a bunch of tired horses from that POR? . Seeing how the last lines rated I go to the next step and would have only looked at pace lines for the 2 3 5 8 and 11. I then looked for their best TPR lines at a comperable distance and surface of the last 3. I ended up using the last line for these 5 horses

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Bill, a good procedural analysis!

I believe the performance of the #9 in today's race (3rd) proved that its grand closing style shown in its last race and 5th race sprints are for real, though today not yet Win-contender worthy. Today it closed in the same way to within 2 lengths of the winner. I felt it's counter-energy E/L readout (most Late, and consistent for how it disburses energy in a sprint) and its steady movement in the last race telegraphed this.

I could not make money from it today though. Again, the Val4 adjustments clearly improved the ratings of the #3 winner in this race. I congratulate everyone who got it!

Ted

[Midland333]

You have the right line Ted-----those last two routes really hurt him in regards to showing more early. I wouldve ran his other 2012 sprints against the contenders and that still wouldnt of helped just eyeballing it. Also, seven furlongs today might've helped.
He's a superb tri or maybe exacta horse but everything needs to be perfect fopr him to win a sprint.
I always need to have a good FX on a late horse for sure and if he can show at least a three or less FW I wouldve personally made a small ( very) win bet and a big place bet.
If his trainer can find another sprint at seven furlongs you'll see him show better early speed because of todays sprint and might get it done-----keep an eye on him

Mike

[Midland333]

this #9 horse also has one of the most powerful angles possible---he gained lengths and positions throughout his last race-----a really positive sign for sure

[Bill V.]

Mike
I agree that the 9 could be used underneath

But as Bill Parcells great NFL 2 time superbowl coach says
"You are what your record says you are"

And to me the 9 is a horse that picks up and benifits from
tired horses. You bring up a good point about FX and FW
If the 9's last line was so great why was its Fx and VDC so
low ?

Looking at #9's pacelines the only win showing was that 7.0 CD race
I also see in that race it was on behind by 8 lengths at the 1st call
In all its failed sprint races it was much farther back

Here is what the chart for yesterdays race shows
Once again In a sprint it picked up the pieces and got third
but it is too far back to win the race

[Ted Craven]

Oct 26, Belmont

Race 3
$50 Win 8-6

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Oct 26, Belmont

Race 3
$50 Win 8-6

Attachment 31144

Win.

[Bill V.]

Nice work Ted A Blue Star for you

[Ted Craven]

Bel R8
$50 Win 1a - 5

(is there time ...?)