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Old 04-13-2014, 10:55 AM   #1
Bill V.
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The art of passing

This is in reply to a PM

There are a few guidelines I use to decide on races to pass
These guidelines g=come from the follow up

1. Do any race as long as every horse has at least 3 North American complete
past performances (races under 5 furlongs do not count)

Now to bet or pass

Doc's guidelines on races to pass - win betting only
These do not apply for exotics.

Pass the race if ..

1. Its a big stakes race and the top 3 betting choices are being
ridden by the top jockeys and these are also your BLBLor vdc top 3 horses.
These races offer no value - This years Santa Anita Derby is a perfect example.

2.The program odd on the BLBL show all your top 3 VDC horses as underlays
at 3 minutes to post
This happened to me yesterday all 5 of my top 5 BLBL were going off
at odds at or less tan the BLBL odds. The winner # 7 tiered 5 on my readouts won at 5/2

3. ( the hard one ) The main reason is knowing when a race is destined to be won by the betting favorite,

This comes with practice and pattern recognition and
keeping records and understanding the race conditions.

anybody else recall guidelines in the follow ups on when to pass ?


Thanks
Bill
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Old 04-13-2014, 11:57 AM   #2
sureshotlink
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Hi Bill,

The Art and Science of passing races is something is a skill we all should spend time on perfecting to some degree. I know this is a area I spend most of my waking hours engraving into by subconscious. Performing the following has helped me a great deal.

" Examining races with fully functioning mind-body awareness of what we see before US!. This kind of emotional intelligence represents more then just feel.
This is feel to the fifth power...

Continued Success to All,

paul
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:25 PM   #3
Appy
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Great topic Bill. I'm convinced learning when to pass, and having the discipline to actually do it, is as important to a positive ROI as any other factor.
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Old 04-13-2014, 02:09 PM   #4
DaveEdwards
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Hi Bill,

One point Howard raised about trusting the feeling in your gut to pass is something I'm happy to rely on.

The uneasy feeling from your subconscious might be caused by anything, not fully understanding a race, not having done all the work etc. Your subconscious knows & is telling you loud & clear.

Sure, occasionally you can pass and see one of your contenders win, but how many times has something unanticipated occurred to offset it?

Now, if I feel a bit uneasy I check the race again & usually I haven't got a true handle on finding two horses so I pass.

Following on from the above, I've also realised that the above is more likely to occur when handicapping during racing as opposed to preparing beforehand. Another lesson in there for myself.
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Old 04-13-2014, 03:16 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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A critical topic Bill, and thanks! For me, EVERY race revolves around 2 primary issues:
1. Who is the Early horse (or horses) - is it vulnerable, is it dominant, is it too pressured?

2. Who is the betting favourite (or starting with the Morning Line favourite) - is it legitimate or is it vulnerable?
Regarding the favourite issue - I proceed with the axiom that I want the betting favourite(s) to look like a favourite on my Odds Line (my BL/BL screen). For me, this means a 2-1 betting favourite must be ranked on Top of the BL and should have a healthy gap over the next horse, even better if it is the sole VDC Rank #1. If such a horse is within a BL point of the 2nd tiered horse, then it's not enough of a favourite to me and can be skipped for Win in favour of the next horse on the Line if that one pays well enough. If such a 2-1 horse is not ranked #1 on BL, it's an easy bet against for win.

Betting favourites with bet-time odds < 2-1 and especially as they approach EVEN odds start to give me more pause as they win a greater share of the time. Here is where I sometimes use an exacta-as-win bet - that 6/5 and soundly ranked BL favourite over 2 or more longer priced, well ranked horses.

Favourites approaching EVEN odds only lose ~ 60% or less of the time variously, so if I have ANY doubts about them I also have made a dutch or hedge Win bet to breakeven or lose a little when they win and have the rest of my Win wager unit on 1 or 2 other correspondingly long odds Top ranked horses (i.e. by definition, when one horse is EVEN odds, or having 50% of the betting pool, everyone else will be juicy odds).

When a couple of horses have 60-70% of the betting pool and are top ranked on BL (i.e. agree with the betting public) - it's a clear time saver and time to move on.

For me, demanding that 'favourites look like favourites' has both made it easier to pass a race (when it is clearly correctly priced) and identifies when I should try to bet against a favourite. You will absolutely lose a normal share of those 'bet against' scenarios, but that is merely the price of 'being in the game' for the times when that favourite loses.

The BL/BL Odds Line and V/DC (for me) is a great tool to help sort those 2 scenarios, though (thankfully) it is imprecise in any given race or 2, while accurate enough in the medium/long term.

All of the foregoing comments about ranking betting favourites against the BL Odds line presumes and requires a consistent Paceline Selection strategy, and a sound (though not overly strenuous or 'classical') Contender identification approach (i.e. that's the only way there is such a thing as 'the long term' - otherwise it's merely a collection of one-off or zig-zagged and thus non-comparable events!)

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-14-2014 at 12:54 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 04-13-2014, 03:23 PM   #6
Bill V.
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true

Great input by you guys

I am sure the PM He is a real nice man who has not posted yet
because he feels he wants to study hard first !!

Today I had that feeling about a race at Pimlico
at 3 minutes to post my top 3 with ties after hiding the
5 horse

were all underlays to the BL odds
The 2 was projected at 1.8/1 I double this and will only take
7/2 The 2 was 3 to 1

The 3 was projected at even so I would double this and only take 2/1
but the 3 was 2/1 and eventually went to 8/5
since I had already hid the 5 horse I passed
because I had no value the 2 did win and paid $8.00 but I did not want to risk a 2 horse win bet. BTW the 3 placed so even a place bet on the highest
odds top 3 VDC horse would have lost.




Bill
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Old 04-14-2014, 10:42 AM   #7
Bill V.
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Top ranked

Hi Ted

I really think your outline of the top ranked horse on BLBL is important.
Since I have been working with baby cee we have been using the guidelines with much success from Mark Cramer's BLBL test from follow up 70 -73.

I have noticed that the top ranked horse on BLBL -before hides - is almost always projected at even money. Since in Mark Cramers test we need 100%
over the bl odds, our top tier blbl (before hides) horse very often is under 5/2
so its a hide. Yet when we hide the top ranked horse the "new" top ranked
BLBL -vdc horse is almost always a bet as a 100% overlay

Thanks for your method of identifying pass or bet races

In my own 20 race cycle - I'm having trouble convincing BC James to
fill out his

My "new" top tier VDC is winning most often - but each users results may vary



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