Major vs. Minor tracks

[Charlie D]

Line 1 is how the #8 Matched Up against the Pace in this race and Lookin at Lucky at this Distance

Line 2 is how #8 Matched Up against the Pace in this Race and against Conveyance at this distance

Lin3 is how the #8 Matched Up against the Pace in this race and against Conveyance at this distance.

So and so


This is the "picture" of this horse being created. This is the Match Up showing a horses ability under these comditions. You don't need any more information imo

The tandem will stand unless a tandem winner runs poorly, meets trouble etc





Every post i make, that is, every winner, every Exacta landed, every loser, is found using Jim " The Hat" Bradshaw's Match Up as taught to me by Richie P and The Hat.

Is is not my altered version of it or someone elses altered version of it.

The proof is in the results. If they were not, i WOULD NOT direct people to Jim "The Hat" Bradshaws Match Up .or this site.


If people want to create there own version, then do so, but please don't tell me Jim's Match Up concepts don't work, when i know they do exactly what it says on the tin because it annoys me as i think it is disrespectful to the creator .

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Line 1 is how the #8 Matched Up against the Pace in this race and Lookin at Lucky at this Distance

Line 2 is how #8 Matched Up against the Pace in this Race and against Conveyance at this distance

Lin3 is how the #8 Matched Up against the Pace in this race and against Conveyance at this distance.

So and so

This is the "picture" of this horse being created. This is the Match Up showing a horses ability under these comditions. You don't need any more information imo

The tandem will stand unless a tandem winner runs poorly, meets trouble etc

Every post i make, that is, every winner, every Exacta landed, every loser, is found using Jim " The Hat" Bradshaw's Match Up as taught to me by Richie P and The Hat.

Is is not my altered version of it or someone elses altered version of it.

The proof is in the results. If they were not, i WOULD NOT direct people to Jim "The Hat" Bradshaws Match Up .or this site.

If people want to create there own version, then do so, but please don't tell me Jim's Match Up concepts don't work, when i know they do exactly what it says on the tin because it annoys me as i think it is disrespectful to the creator .

Charlie, Charlie, you were supposed to be done with this! But no, you have been awake for the last 8 hours trying to figure a way to explain the poor performance of the #8 in the Santa Anita Derby based on the principles you have learned.

If it is pictures that you like, then here is a picture for you from the Santa Anita derby.

#3 – Grade 3 winner
#4 – Grade 2 winner (twice)
#6 – Grade 2 winner
#7 – Grade 1 winner (3 times) & Grade 2 winner (twice)
#8 – Maiden claimer winner & claiming $40,000 winner
#10 – Grade 3 winner

What’s wrong with this picture? There seems to be something in the picture that doesn’t “match” the rest of the picture.

There is no need for a discussion about incremental velocity, energy distribution or tandem concepts here, this picture tells the story.

Young horses are always eligible to improve. If this horse improves, great! Until that time comes, if it ever does, then it remains what it is.

Look, I’m sure everyone reading your posts here are happy for you that you have found something you believe in. And that fact that you are standing up for the man who brought these concepts to the public, as well as the man who taught them to you, is commendable. But give it a rest now.

This thread was supposed to be about major tracks vs. minor tracks for the benefit of new members and perhaps people who are new to handicapping and I am as much to blame as you are for the thread getting so far off topic, so I am going to restrict my further comments to the topic at hand.

[Ted Craven]

I believe few would argue (and thank you gentlemen, Charlie and For The Lead for making that case from different angles) that #8 Cardiff Giant was not a win contender in the Santa Anita Derby. My own proposition in that race was that given its not just 1 line but last 2 lines early energy expenditure ranks, its in-the-money finishes in Graded Stakes this year, and not least its (as it turned out) 70-1 odds, Cardiff was worth something to Place and Show, or belonged somewhere in trifecta or superfecta play (which I don't do, currently).

Shall we agree (please) that performance in calibre of race (race class) can dovetail and often reinforce matchup observation (both/either visual or velocity/energy disbursement)? Any person newly finding their way in the concepts of the Sartin Methodology must attempt to come to grips with the matchup, whether visually applied if you can, or using software to identify energy disbursement patterns. At the same time, knowing which horses' performances at lesser tracks or against lesser competition will just not prove out against 'higher calibre' horses will save you from blindly trusting numbers where they just don't prove out - in general.

For example, Digger in Saturday's AQU Carter Handicap (http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6705)? As Charles suggests in that thread, were Digger's 2 Laurel Stakes performances of obviously lesser 'class' compared to the others, thus inflating his numbers compared to the rest? Or, was he a worthy shot at the 8-1 odds offered (e.g. along with Warrior's Reward at 4-1 @ 1 MTP)?

As it was, I was fortunate to cash bets in 3 of the 4 major stakes races discussed Saturday (SA Derby, Carter, Illinois Derby)

Ted

[Charlie D]

Good ol Doc and The Sartin Methodology

Who needs other methodology's when you can hit 3 from 4.

[Charlie D]

Hide chalk who your not going to bet unless you love chalk and you've got winner of Carter in your Top two i believe.

Bl odds line then probably tells you these horses are good VALUE

4-4 races played, what more do you want from a methodology.


Like most things in racing. Right decisions and you WIN, wrong decisions and you LOSE or make no bet as Charles did and there is nothing wrong with passing races and waiting for " all stars to align" (Richie P)

It's not rocket science.

To learn how to make the right choices, get reading, listening and practising.

[lsosa54]

Well, Charlie, your putting up the Sunland Derby got me back into posting a bit, so for that I say thanks. Didn't have time to post up the SA Derby beforehand, but here's how I looked at it. I passed on the Wood as I didn't see any value and all the poly lines in the Illinois Derby and the fact that I didn't see a ton of value made me pass also.

Since SAX is my home circuit, I saw some value right away. I think both you, FTL, and Ted make valid points. My approach to this race was to take the best poly route speed # showing for each contender as long as the paceline came from a graded race. My preference is grade 1 but obviously only Lucky I think had a G1 paceline available.

What struck me initially on that basis was, that Lucky was basically on par with some of the others and didn't deserve to be that kind of favorite. I also thought that 102 earned on the dirt might cause some regression. Also, I thought the SA Derby was not his goal but instead to get ready on the dirt for Kentucky.

I'm at work so I don't have access to my materials but regarding Cardiff Giant, his best speed # (BRIS) in a graded race was an 88. Based on the fact that I had about about 6 others with superior speed figs in a graded race, I wouldn't allow the poor animal near my computer. Although I have on occassion seen mcl/claiming types get real good and do damage in graded races, it is very rare. Since I lean more to Brohamer than anyone else in the Methodology, the sale of the horse to M Racing trained by Mike Puhich was also a negative. I have been following Puhich's forays into SoCal from Seattle for 20 years. However, had he had a competitive graded poly route, I would have evaluated him. Let's remember that Jimmy used to say that the horse had to be "fast enough" to win.

I think I ran about 6 contenders through EXDC/Thoromation and no matter if I adjusted or not, I couldn't get Lucky better than the Designated Place Horse. SAX routes favor the SP screen and Caracortado and Sydney's had their animated noses on the wire together. On the EXDC side, it was clearly Sydney's.

I then went back and checked Lucky's last race on the dirt just to see if that would put him on top in then SP screen and when it didn't, I knew I had a bet. I felt pretty strongly about Sydney's but could not ignore Caracortado so I made a 2 horse win bet @ 7-2 and 7-1. $9 back for every $4 was ok by me. I had 4 horses as possible exacta partners, of which Setsuko, Alphie's, and Lucky were 3 (I forget the 4th), but I did not play the exacta. Of course, Mr. Gomez got Lucky trapped on the inside so I'll take any help I can get.

It's not often I see a wire to wire paceline win put the horse on top in the SP screen esp. at 1 1/8m, but it's usually a good sign. Jimmy knew what he was doing when he programmed the match up into EXDC.

I admire Charlie's passion for the pure manual matchup just as I have passion for my method as I'm sure Ted and FTL have with their approaches. There is room for all of us - we may not get the same winners, but win we will. Maybe we should combine our efforts and put out a tip sheet? OK, just kidding.

[Charlie D]

It's good to have you back posting Lou imho. People can learn a lot from your excellent posts.

[Charlie D]

Match Up Apprentices and students practising thier trade. Tandems holding up

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...=Practice+race


Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw was a handicapping genius imho. But don't listen to my waffle, Listen to the "Hat" and the other guys in library just like i and others did.

[Charlie D]

If you need help, start a thread and i'll be along with a link to the information i think you need to help you with your problem.

[Charlie D]

One more thing.

I've nothing to sell, so i have no vested interest in any products or methodology's and that being so my opinion is unbiased. I just want to try and help you make a few bucks playing the Greatest Game in the World. Like other kind people have helped me.