I'm Dying at Belmont

[stormbringer]

frog I HATE TO SEE YOU LIKE THIS IF i CAN HELP I WILL STOP WORKING AT HOL TO HELP YOU IF I CAN SORRW ABOUT THIS POST.T HAVE DOBULE VISION
DON'T ASK

THE STORM

[froggy]

Storm,

Thanks for the offer but I think I've got it covered for Wed. (I think).
I plan on using Perceptor to select a pace line on every reasonable horse and then export to Energy and make my eliminations from there.
Previously I had been using RDSS to make my eliminations.

I shall prevail.

Froggy

[lonestarracefan]

Froggy,

Are you keeping a track profile?

I don't play Belmont on a regular basis, but if Sprints are favoring SP/S types or loaded with speed.

the 6 here is ranks #1 in DCL and #2 in LPR

Originally Posted by froggy

Ted,

I have almost not been able to get a winner at Belmont.
The results with RDSS have less than satisfactory.
This is the first race today.
The obvious winner is not included as a contender and as such was not exported.
When I enter the raw pace lines into SYN II the winner has come up as one of the top two in practically every race since the start of the meet.
This is not just an occasional race but a lot of races.
Is there something different or wrong with the way TM generates their variants?
Where I am now is back to hand entry the night before using a program that generates it's own internal variant.
Notice where the top 4 FW horses are in the finish from each program.

Froggy

[froggy]

Joe,
I only keep a wagering decision form for RDSS to tell me where the winners are coming from.
I had been using RDSS's "Energy Screen" to make my eliminations and decisions as to which horses to keep in the program and export to Energy. Using the top 5 and ties.
However I use Energy to make all of my wagering decisions and keep track of every race with an "Energy Report Form".
The most important readouts in Energy are uxr and muv with lowest being best.
Using RDSS the horse ranked 7th in total energy, 6th in FW and 7th in FX.
For a sprint this type of horse is a non contender.
Syn II has the horse as 1st in FW, 3rd in FX, 3rd in WX and 2nd in DR.
This horse is a prime contender.
Now look where the horse ranks with energy.
Why do the Sartin programs that make their own internal variants from the pace lines entered put this horse on top while RDSS with Trackmaster variants ranks it 7th?
Therein lies my problem.
I would have scratched the 5, 1A, 3 and the two from Energy as non contenders for the win.

Froggy

[froggy]

The 1 is the counter energy horse and so would have been included in any exotic bet.
The 6 is on top of both Paragons and would have been a win bet.

[Ted Craven]

Froggy,

The issue is not only (or not necessarily) theTrackMaster adjustments. Try refiguring that race in RDSS without using any DTV or ITV TrackMaster adjustments (just deselect those in the Configure window).

In this particular race, or at this particular track right now, RDSS is not firing for you and Energy and Syn2 is. Go with what works for you. Over the broader time frame and over many tracks, I don't have evidence that the TrackMaster adjustments are not more effective than less, but I'm sure open to any rigourous info that helps fine tune things.

Keep your head up - I'll try to help with the tools...

Ted

[froggy]

Ted,

Will do.

Froggy

[Dallas4lr]

Ted,

I guess I'm very confused by this, If most of sartin based programs use four basic figures for the calculations: F1,F2,F3 and final time; why would energy and RDSS be so out of line at Belmont. I've seen a majority of horses winning at Belmont that arent even in the top five contenders. Thought it was just me.

Carl

I to have been getting my head handed to me at belmont park.

[alydar_ David]

I finally figured out this Belmont meet. The following was expensive to learn:

[admin]

I would love to throw this out there for 3 of our
friends. I might be totally wrong but maybe Even so
I might spark a thought that will help


Froggy . I notice on both your examples many shippers distances and surfaces
what I mean is Is Belmont that important to you
If not then why not bet this track very small
and depend on a track that maybe the program
can out preform the crowd and that the circut
/shipping in horse at least all are running
on comperable surfaces

just a thought
I wish you well and that you
win and have a happy time

GS
Bill