Matching without adding beaten lenghts

[RichieP]

Here is a race from Mountaineer last night.

The winner is only gonna pay 6 and change but the exacta here is EASILY gettable and that pays almost 50 dollars.

I am using Trackmaster's pdf past performances which show fractions in tenths so I will reduce to normal fifths in describing fractions ok?

we will do the race based around a projected pace of the # 3 horse's last race at this track and at this distance.

1c - 22.3
2c - 46.2
ft - 111.2

NO beaten lenghts are added to fractions. We will identify running styles and then pick lines where the horse was competitve against the pace shown or quicker. The horse who ran COMPETITIVELY against the faster pace of race will be our choice assuming his running style is NOT disadvantaged by todays pace scenario.

We are also gonna use Tandems to help us match and have Jim's words help us here.
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Tandems:

FIRST thing I noticed was that our projected pacesetter # 3 comes out of a tandem race with the # 7 "Bob's Stories". The 7 beat our pacesetter # 3 by 2 and a half lenghts in that tandem so we have to answer Hat's question from his 5 step approach:

" 3. Determine the running style of the Tandem horses in today's race .
• 4. Why did a particular running style win in the last Tandem?
• 5. Will the same running style win today's race, or will a horse with a different running style prevail?" - Jim Bradshaw - 5 Step Approach to the Matchup

Running styles in the tandem:

# 3 - Early - had an uncontested lead and collapsed. If there are other FAST earlies here he will be compromised.

# 7 - Presser - good style and the tandem winner.

# 2 - defeated by 8 lenghts in the tandem by the # 7 with NO excuse. He is GONE from consideration.

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Shippers:

we see there is 1 new face at the Mountain for the race and it is the # 4 horse "Windsor Dickens" coming from Delaware.

Running style - 1000 % EARLY need to lead at FIRST call to win.

Is he FAST ?

Last race at wet fast track condition

1c - 22.4
2c - 46.3
ft - 112.2

as far as being COMPETITVE he came 3rd beaten 9 lenghts. Guess thats ok but notice 2 things
1) he can go faster early
2) seems to be declining in form NOTICEABLY. he has been stopping on his OWN.


The presence of THIS guy seriously compromises our proj pacesetter # 3 who stopped on his OWN on an uncontested lead last race.

To ME this makes the tandem winner # 7 - Bob's Stories" a very serious WIN contender as his style will NOT be hurt by the presence of the shipper 4 horse. It very well might be helped ok?

Now the question becomes:
Can anyone knock off the # 7?

To do it they are gonna have to have a NON early style it appears as the 3 and 4 are destined to clash and BOTH have been stopping on their own

Pace of RACE for the # 7
1c - 22.3
2c - 46.2
ft - 111.2

FORGET beaten lenghts. he IS competitive against this pace. thats all that counts.

does anybody "knock him off" with BOTH a faster Pace of RACE ( being competitve) and NON early style? Let's see.
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Running styles and the field

horse 1 - laid off for 6 months coming into todays race. shows SIX sprint races and has NEVER even hit the board. OUT

horse 2 - got DESTROYED in the tandem by the 7 with NO excuse. OUT

horse 3 - our projected pacesetter and tandem LOSER. conditions do NOT look good for him reversing the tandem finish with the 7 due to the presence of the shipper 4 horse.

horse 4 - the pure early shipper who has been stopping on OWN - declining form wise - 2nd choice in the betting

horse 5 - HELLO - Running style- Sustained/presser - last race was first back off 90 day layoff - finished 3rd beaten less than 3 lenghts

Pace of RACE
1c - 22.3
2c - 45.2
ft - 111.4

here is where matching fraction by fraction WITHOUT adding beaten lenghts comes into play.

Let's match this line with our # 7 horse fraction by fraction PACE OF RACE

1c:
7 - 22.3
5 - 22.3 SAME no edge either horse

2c:
7 - 46.2
5 - 45.2 a full one SECOND edge to the 5 man. or 5 "fiths" if u please.

ft:
7 - 111.2
5 - 111.4 a 2 fifth advantage to the 7 here. HOWEVER he has to make up a FIVE fifth disadvantage to the 5 from 2c right? 2 fifths does NOT do it here.

We HAVE found a horse that not only compares to the tandem winner # 7 but BEATS him squarely. he also has backup as his lines 9 and 12 are even faster and this guy is in form judging by his last race.

so right now we have the following:

# 5 - TOP DOG
# 7 - 2nd best and tandem winner

Let's continue on with the rest of the field please.

horse 6 -a FAST horse looking at line 4. His style is definitely early/early press which will HURT him in THIS matchup.

horse 7 - our tandem winner

horse 8 - a pig OUT

horse 9 - a SLOW horse - OUT

horse 10 - a router showing NO sprints - OUT
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Decision time:

we have the following :

horse 5 - fastest horse with perfect style

horse 7 - tandem winner with perfect style and clear runnerup to the 5.

horse 6 - fast horse with WRONG style for THIS matchup.

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Here are the horse's past performances and at the end I will post the full result chart ok?

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PURPOSE in posting this:

1) Worked a race while NEVER using beaten lenghts other than determing competiveness in considering a line as valid.

2) Using Pace of RACE to match final contenders going fraction by fraction

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This ain't " vodoo" man. This is the Matchup

I love learning new things and take this quite serious

hope this made some sense

Richie

here are the pp's - horse 1

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horse 2

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horse 3

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horse 4

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horse 5

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horse 6

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horse 7

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horse 8

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horse 9

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horse 10