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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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09-16-2018, 03:38 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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form factors
Hello everyone!
I don't know if this is the place for this inquiry or not?? After having a good day yesterday at Woodbine and Gulfstream(caught a 92.00 horse who was # 2 on bl/bl!) After reviewing my plays over the last few weeks or so,I find a nagging problem: HOW CAN YOU TRY TO FIGURE OUT IF A HORSE IS GOING OF FORM? I know it's not an exact science but does anyone have any suggestion,ideas or statistics that point to a horse not being ready TODAY to run to his/her potential? Any help would as usual be so much appreciated! Papa John |
09-16-2018, 05:18 PM | #2 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
Bottom line is this: only the connections really and truly know how a horse is feeling, and sometimes, they don’t even know until after the race is over. Physicality handicapping in the paddock/post parade can give you an idea, but it’s a guess at best, and you really have to know what to look for and practice. Horse’s health is not a rateable stat or info in PPs, therefore, determining value is even more important, as horses can cycle good and bad very quickly. As the old saying goes, “if you missed the wedding, don’t bother showing up to the funeral.” |
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09-16-2018, 05:37 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Readouts
Hello Papa John
My own way is to look at a horses races where it runs well, How can I tell if it has been running well, and will it continue to run well today? I look at the last line (always look at the last line) Now is today's distance and class comparable to race were the horse has run its plus races? Is today's race within 21 days of the last race? If not I would need to see at least a 36 3 furlong work or anything 4 furlongs or longer. ( these are west cost parameters) Today's race needs to be within 90 days I use a horse's full TPR lifetime records to rate its last line If the line can be excused I do not hold a poor TPR rating against it. If a horse TPRs are getting worse in recent races without excuses, I look at the horse as going off form. Bill |
09-16-2018, 05:53 PM | #4 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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I posted something on this thread about "paired tops."
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=110299 It's a "Sheets" concept but I've found it's rather effective using Ted's Adj SR. Basically, with a cheap claimer that's just run paired lifetime tops, expect a regression. |
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