M4$ Apr16 Challenge12 (Pook)

[cigar]

Pace: 23 - 46.8
OTE
Contenders: 4-6

1. Far Back - will be coming late - Fit Exactor - Out
2. Far Back - Out
3 - FTS - no strong workout pattern - Out
4 - Contender - competitive, will have first jump on leaders
5 - Long layoff - Out
6 - Contender - Speed of the Speed, does not need the lead. If rated dangerous
7 - Scratch
8 - Speed - needs the lead - my hope #6 does not hook up with her. If speed duel develop #1 has big shot. - Out
9 - Far Back - Out
10 - Far Back - out

Win: 4 - 6

[The Pook]

Pat,

Interesting take on the 11. Didn't notice that and you are right it is not matching but you couldn't possibly be on him doing the Matchup. Thats okay, I realize I have put up a race with some parts missing as far as MU goes. Adds a bit of spice.

Pook

[gandalf380]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Hey Gandalf,

Yes I agree on the 5. But I know what will happen if I bet him and lose. FTL will Email me and expound his never bet on over 20-1 and over 120 day off rules. Which I understand and appreciate. They only hit 5% of the time.... but equally over all types of races? I know, I know......

Pook

I really don't think he will be 20/1. But he has some things going for him and it is like being a first time starter all over again. I am hoping that the new trainer will pump some life into him. I post my picks in the Saratoga Special every summer so I am used to making a fool of myself.

[The Pook]

Hey what do you know. One less piece of non-information.

3 is scratched.....the FTS

Pook

[The Pook]

A little bit of the body has been scratched right out of'er.

Pook

[The Pook]

See earlier post for rationale.

5,6

Pook

[cigar]

What else will go wrong again. 4 lost rider and 6 second. I should start playing place bet again. Pook let's start place bet lol.

Race did setup for the #1.

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by cigar

What else will go wrong again. 4 lost rider and 6 second. I should start playing place bet again. Pook let's start place bet lol.

Race did setup for the #1.

Yeah honestly. Do you think the race would have run much differently if the 4 was in? Well actually I guess you do because you had him for the win. We should be better than this. We should have predicted that the jockey would come off the 4. Maybe we should demand another screen in RDSS that deals with "lost rider" probabilities.
But seriously, PatC had the win! So congrats to him. I will post the chart later. I am not sure what it paid.
I think the race ran pretty much to form. I'd like to look at a couple of things about it and will post those later. Intuition wise we shouldn't be looking at losing races for those of us that lost. But thats advanced stuff of which I don't think I am a part of yet. I have a question about the 6 and would like opinions.

Later,
Pook

[Bill V.]

Hi Pook

I am sorry I did not get to post my PASS comment .
I just looked at the race when you put it up and knew I was out
I apologize, but its been a busy day driving in Arizona and nearly home in Socal.

Anyway about the 6
Its only 0-6 which is still workable .

Its a Early. RDSS2.1 has it a E5 There are other E's in the race
The 8 is a E8 so its going to battle the 4 and 8
Here is my TPR screen of my contenders

I excuse the last line for the 6 and went to line 2 the reason is line 1 was it's first try at Lrl since coming from GP
But Line 2 only shows a very weak LP of 74 This horse has never broken my 80 LP floor So I think Even 5.5 is not going to help. as 5.5 dirt races tend to run with good 3rd fractions ( LPR)

Thanks
Bill

[The Pook]

No problems Bill. So that is what I mean about the 6. I had him has an OTE. He is not that! Some are tough to make calls on but I looked at his picture initially and saw a horse that is not 1st or 2nd at the first call most of the time. But he is trying to be! And he runs his best from the front! Am I not right?

Once you make him Early along with the 8 you have a different race? Same for the 4. An Early? That leaves 1 and 5 OTE. The 5 had that huge layoff so there is an issue there. I am pretty sure that Jim would have singled the 1 here. He wouldn't have broken a sweat getting there either. The 1 is the only legitimate runner that can pass horses and he is against multiple Early or wannabe Earlies.

The ole 20/20 rearview mirror is crystal clear here. I make these slight errors in judgement too often for my liking. And that is the difference. The really good guys make just a few less errors and that makes all the difference in the world.

I know Richie about the looking back stuff. But you have ten years on me at Matching. One day I hope to be there. I am improving but some of my initial impressions on running styles are plain wrong. It didn't pay much again but a single on the 1 I think is where Jim would have been and at 5-2 acceptable.

Chime in anyone on your opinions on running styles in this race.
Pook