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Breeders' Cup 2013 - FRIDAY Nov. 1 News, Discussion, Analysis, Bets

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Old 11-01-2013, 10:07 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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One thing that worked today

Speed, speed and more speed on the dirt, only. Turf dominated by Europeans, not a gread surprise there, IMHO

I went back through today's card and took the best E/ep of each contender for all the dirt races. On the segments screen keep all the horses that are ranked 1-4 in first call and 1-4 in 2nd call and with the exception of race 2, all of the winners and most of the place horses remain. You can eliminate with some success horses ranked 4-5 and 5-4, for instance.

Check it out.

It looks like SA set up the track to advantage the local speed crew, Beholder, for example and a couple of others and for tomorrow, possibly Game on Dude.

Oh by the way, don't use any BSR lines, bull ring, etc. or Charles Town CT, for that matter

Good luck with this.....

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 11-01-2013 at 10:25 PM.
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Old 11-01-2013, 10:59 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Early Pace Potential

Hi Bill

Are you referring to The Ee/p readout that is part of the balance readout
that Ted and I address in this post ?

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...38&postcount=6

Thanks

Bill
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Old 11-01-2013, 11:02 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
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It is the E/ep rating in the Energy panel, then go to the Segments screen, take the top two and confirm with what remains of the BL/BL screen. Except for th 43/1 shot it was quite predictive, even in the down the hill sprint on turf race.

Bill
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Old 11-02-2013, 12:12 PM   #4
atkinsrr
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I agree Bill...never ever use bull ring P/L CT Delta Mnr for other tracks only when you bet those tracks exclusively...about the 6 1/2 Turf downhill...early horses are getting killed in the stretch...normally I love lone speed at any distance..but had to throw out Reneesgotzip in that race...showing 68.4 % Med energy and that's too high for the downhill...hope this horse doesn't open up a hugh lead or I may be in trouble...using the
3 5 6 12 14 in my pic4.....good luck and skills to all today
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Old 11-02-2013, 12:47 PM   #5
Mark
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Bill,
I would not recommend anyone rely on this type of postmortem analysis of one day of racing. I can't subscribe to a theory that Santa Anita track maintanence personnel souped up the track in any fashion that might endanger the health of these horses when the races are broadcast around the world for all to see. Fast surfaces indicate hard surfaces and those lead to breakdowns.
While I don't know exactly what the Energy Screen factors are comprised of, it appears to me after about 9 months experience with RDSS2 that those particular factors have a great deal of the Pace of Race involved in their makeup. So you would expect winners and ITM horses to come from Graded and Stakes events that were fast.
Additionally, I have seen severely biased tracks, much more common 20 or more years ago. The results were consistent and unpredictable. More Pressing horses won yesterday than can be explained by a speed bias. Sustained horses are most often just slower animals and only win when the front end collapses or sever early contention tires the faster horses prematurely.
You have horses coming from many tracks, surfaces and distances in these races. Some do not have usable pacelines as they come from overseas. What we saw is the best horseflesh in the world brought to peak condition by very skillful trainers and when matched up the best horses won.
Today I would not approach these races with any preconception about surface speed. I would recommend that everyone handicap the races as they would normally. Better yet, enjoy the pagentry and beauty and save the wagering for tracks that you handicap on a daily basis.
One man's opinion.
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Old 11-02-2013, 12:51 PM   #6
atkinsrr
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Caracortado just scratched out of race 7 downhill turf....makes room for Renee to go back on my p4 ticket ....maybe Maldonado can get this horse to rate behind the 7 ????
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Old 11-02-2013, 12:59 PM   #7
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Balance

Thank You Bill L.

I am glad your using the Ee/p rating. Its a good corollary.
I have to believe there is more to it than just a variation of the EP readouts
I was hoping to see you here at Del Mar.

Bill
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Old 11-02-2013, 01:42 PM   #8
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark View Post
Bill,
I would not recommend anyone rely on this type of postmortem analysis of one day of racing. I can't subscribe to a theory that Santa Anita track maintanence personnel souped up the track in any fashion that might endanger the health of these horses when the races are broadcast around the world for all to see. Fast surfaces indicate hard surfaces and those lead to breakdowns.
While I don't know exactly what the Energy Screen factors are comprised of, it appears to me after about 9 months experience with RDSS2 that those particular factors have a great deal of the Pace of Race involved in their makeup. So you would expect winners and ITM horses to come from Graded and Stakes events that were fast.
Additionally, I have seen severely biased tracks, much more common 20 or more years ago. The results were consistent and unpredictable. More Pressing horses won yesterday than can be explained by a speed bias. Sustained horses are most often just slower animals and only win when the front end collapses or sever early contention tires the faster horses prematurely.
You have horses coming from many tracks, surfaces and distances in these races. Some do not have usable pacelines as they come from overseas. What we saw is the best horseflesh in the world brought to peak condition by very skillful trainers and when matched up the best horses won.
Today I would not approach these races with any preconception about surface speed. I would recommend that everyone handicap the races as they would normally. Better yet, enjoy the pagentry and beauty and save the wagering for tracks that you handicap on a daily basis.
One man's opinion.
I agree 100% with this opinion...

I was fortunate to have worked energy numbers years ago....the best horses were the early speed horses that can set a blitzing Pace to defeat the competition into submission and stagger home......Goldencents' race in the BC mile was a perfect example....

Great opinion...Mark
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