Preakness Stakes - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 05-17-2016, 01:03 PM

Because the Preakness is just 1/16th shorter than the Derby, I still consider it a marathon. That being said all the work done for the Derby readily translates to the Pimlico race.

However, there appears to be more early speed horses entered. Abiding Star (if allowed to enter), Laoban, Uncle Lino and Collected have all won on or very close to the lead. Abiding Star comes off a race at PARX and Uncle Lino off a race from Los Alamitos, both tracks which in my mind tend to run a little faster than the major circuits. Without any adjustments it would look like Abiding Star has the fastest early fractions of 23-46-110.8 and Uncle Lino ran 140.82 off of 47-111 fractions, so I am guessing that the race pace might shade a little under 47 but will level out to 111 and change by the six furlong mark. Uncle Lino has pressed from 2nd and not won and has lost to Nyquist by a significant margin. If the splits are faster then you know who/who can handle and finish off such speed.

So we have 4 for the lead with the best of them being Uncle Lino and Collected which means that any OTE has to run from 4th to beat these.

Stradivari is interesting having pressed closely against weaker and my suspicion is that he will press off the top 4 but not engage them. If he does he is probably toast, leaving the race to the Derby 1-2 finishers. If he presses from behind the early 4 then he might have a chance. Hope there is a price here, because he only has a maiden and NW1X win to show so far.

With Gunrunner out the only pressing contender is Fellowship who has not been proven at the Grade 1 or 2 level. He might hit the board, but not in my top 2.

Lani, Awesome Speed and Cherry Wine are just slow, with mile times ranging from the 20th to 26th best, which will not be good enough.

Nyquist will run where he needs to in the top third of the field. His mile time in the Derby is the third best raw time, but really best in a graded race over 8.5 furlongs, so my top pick (duh!). Exaggerator probably needs to position himself closer early, but I really do not see him better than 7-8th early on and based on the Derby he needs to be closer than 10 lengths at the six furlong mark.

Stradivari and Exaggerator are my place horses, but I would box Nyquist and Exaggerator along with Stradivari. Collected and Uncle Lino could show.

Good luck this weekend.

ClockerDan · 05-18-2016, 05:58 AM

Rain in forecast, changes everything don't you think?

Bill Lyster · 05-18-2016, 09:38 AM

No, unless the track turns into gumbo, then the margin of victory might even be greater, IMHO.

ClockerDan · 05-18-2016, 05:33 PM

So you believe Nyquist can run in the mud! Exaggerator, creator and collected are the real
Mudders! Lani is but not for me!

Bill Lyster · 05-22-2016, 01:01 PM

Split-zacta as Exaggerator and Nyquist finish 1-3

05-17-2016, 01:03 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Preakness Stakes Because the Preakness is just 1/16th shorter than the Derby, I still consider it a marathon. That being said all the work done for the Derby readily translates to the Pimlico race. However, there appears to be more early speed horses entered. Abiding Star (if allowed to enter), Laoban, Uncle Lino and Collected have all won on or very close to the lead. Abiding Star comes off a race at PARX and Uncle Lino off a race from Los Alamitos, both tracks which in my mind tend to run a little faster than the major circuits. Without any adjustments it would look like Abiding Star has the fastest early fractions of 23-46-110.8 and Uncle Lino ran 140.82 off of 47-111 fractions, so I am guessing that the race pace might shade a little under 47 but will level out to 111 and change by the six furlong mark. Uncle Lino has pressed from 2nd and not won and has lost to Nyquist by a significant margin. If the splits are faster then you know who/who can handle and finish off such speed. So we have 4 for the lead with the best of them being Uncle Lino and Collected which means that any OTE has to run from 4th to beat these. Stradivari is interesting having pressed closely against weaker and my suspicion is that he will press off the top 4 but not engage them. If he does he is probably toast, leaving the race to the Derby 1-2 finishers. If he presses from behind the early 4 then he might have a chance. Hope there is a price here, because he only has a maiden and NW1X win to show so far. With Gunrunner out the only pressing contender is Fellowship who has not been proven at the Grade 1 or 2 level. He might hit the board, but not in my top 2. Lani, Awesome Speed and Cherry Wine are just slow, with mile times ranging from the 20th to 26th best, which will not be good enough. Nyquist will run where he needs to in the top third of the field. His mile time in the Derby is the third best raw time, but really best in a graded race over 8.5 furlongs, so my top pick (duh!). Exaggerator probably needs to position himself closer early, but I really do not see him better than 7-8th early on and based on the Derby he needs to be closer than 10 lengths at the six furlong mark. Stradivari and Exaggerator are my place horses, but I would box Nyquist and Exaggerator along with Stradivari. Collected and Uncle Lino could show. Good luck this weekend.

05-22-2016, 01:01 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	results Split-zacta as Exaggerator and Nyquist finish 1-3 Attached Images

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05-18-2016, 05:58 AM	#2
ClockerDan Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Bradford - Haverhill, Ma. Posts: 103	Rain in forecast, changes everything don't you think?

05-18-2016, 09:38 AM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	No, unless the track turns into gumbo, then the margin of victory might even be greater, IMHO.

05-18-2016, 05:33 PM	#4
ClockerDan Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Bradford - Haverhill, Ma. Posts: 103	So you believe Nyquist can run in the mud! Exaggerator, creator and collected are the real Mudders! Lani is but not for me!