Better betting strategy

[pktruckdriver]

1, 3, 4 ,5, and 6 would be 100.00 in win bets and another 20.00 in exacta for a total of



120.00 in win bet

180.00 in winnings

36.60 in exactas

40,00 in eaxcta bets

Gotta run more homework later

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

1, 3, 4 ,5, and 6 would be 100.00 in win bets and another 20.00 in exacta for a total of



120.00 in win bet

180.00 in winnings

36.60 in exactas

40.00 in eaxcta bets

Gotta run more homework later

Race 1 winner 8.20

Race 3 winner 2.80

Race 4 winner 7.80 26/2367 exacta 12.00 bet win 36.60

Race 5 winner 11.00

Race 6 Loser

Daily double race 3-4 8.00 win 14.20

race 4-5 8.00 win 48.20

race 5-6 8.00 win 185.20

Pick 3 race 3-4-5 32.00 win 70.40

race 4-5-6- 32.00 win 743.60

100.00 in total win bets Total win bets 29.80 X 5 = 149.00

I am still wondering about race using only turf races, as it does produce the winner and exacta, but a few of the pacelines were 469 day old, isn't that too long ago for this type of race, where a stakes race would be acceptable, no?


I hope this covers my homework, and as far as writing down my bets, no I am not physically writing down in a journal or any other manner , than putting them up here in the post.

20 race session are considered 2 cards or 2-4 cards with 20 playable races??? I know I am playing too many races, that I am sure no one will argue with me on that, but practice is practise. no?

Happy Memorial Day all
patrick

[Ted Craven]

Patrick,

Just to recap those first 5 races (1,3,4,5,6), looking at Win only, you yourself (and mostly anyone) would have passed race 3, so no Win bet (though use it in a DD).

So you had 4 Win bets (races 1,4,5,6). Say you bet $10 per race, $5 on each of 2 horses per race.

Bet $40.00 (4 x $10)
Ret $67.50 (2.5 tickets each race on cumulative win mutuels of $27.00, excluding race 6)
Net $27.50
ROI 68.7%

If you choose to count race 6 as winnable, the Win bet numbers look like this:

Bet $50.00 (5 x $10)
Ret $106.00 (2.5 tickets each race on cumulative win mutuels of $42.40)
Net $56.00
ROI 112%

Patrick, I would STRONGLY recommend that you get into the habit of writing down in a notebook or journal (for starters) EVERY SINGLE WAGER you make, and so much the better during your practice phase to do it before the race runs. Doesn't matter if any one else sees it - you need to see it. Write down the results next to your initial wager - doesn't matter the format for now, columns or freeform, whatever. Just write it down. Carry that journal with you, or keep it by your computer as you make your wagers.

The reason for this is that often enough (like this day at Churchill) you will have good days and seeing the summary of your numbers can be very inspiring. I wrote it all down myself on a sheet of paper and I was inspired by your bets! That's why we're still talking about this. Make it a discipline, like a worship, or a yoga, or like brushing your teeth each morning. Soon enough you will not wish to live without it (though you will surely graduate to more sophisticated bookkeeping methods).

You made either .68 cents profit per dollar bet or $1.12 per dollar - on Win bets - depending on the outcome of race 6. You need to see this summarized, like I have done above, in your wager journal, so you can get the mental and emotional juice from it when you need it.

Let's talk about Race #6 next, the Turf race.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I am still wondering about race using only turf races, as it does produce the winner and exacta, but a few of the pacelines were 469 day old, isn't that too long ago for this type of race, where a stakes race would be acceptable, no?

It's entirely likely that the race #6 winner may not have won that day, or it's certainly possible that I might have been dubious as to whether it could regain its Turf form from so long ago and not bet it to either Win or Place. Anything is possible. However, the point I was trying to make is that the Analysis approach to Turf races described in that link above (take a horse's best Turf performance from its entire PPs regardless the timeframe, ask that it's in some form today, or at least that it has been racing on surfaces or distances it did not like or was over-matched and returns today to the circumstances of previous competence - i.e. Turf routes) - this consistently applied approach (i.e. it could be computerized) will win at decent odds enough times to use it regularly and be profitable. I have enjoyed regular hits over some time now doing this, hence the advice. It might not have worked for us today - no worries - we don't know when an approach will hit or miss - only that it will do so 'n' times out of 100 and generate such and such profit. Call it a spot play if you like, or an approach to a class of races, whatever.

Try this on as many Turf routes (try routes for starters) as you can going forward and keep track in your notebook how often it hits and at what mutuels. See if it can become part of your arsenal ot tools.

Next, lets talk about counter-energy horses, races #7 (and race #4)

Back in a bit...

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

It's entirely likely that the race #6 winner may not have won that day, or it's certainly possible that I might have been dubious as to whether it could regain its Turf form from so long ago and not bet it to either Win or Place. Anything is possible. However, the point I was trying to make is that the Analysis approach to Turf races described in that link above (take a horse's best Turf performance from its entire PPs regardless the timeframe, ask that it's in some form today, or at least that it has been racing on surfaces or distances it did not like or was over-matched and returns today to the circumstances of previous competence - i.e. Turf routes) - this consistently applied approach (i.e. it could be computerized) will win at decent odds enough times to use it regularly and be profitable. I have enjoyed regular hits over some time now doing this, hence the advice. It might not have worked for us today - no worries - we don't know when an approach will hit or miss - only that it will do so 'n' times out of 100 and generate such and such profit. Call it a spot play if you like, or an approach to a class of races, whatever.

Try this on as many Turf routes (try routes for starters) as you can going forward and keep track in your notebook how often it hits and at what mutuels. See if it can become part of your arsenal ot tools.

Next, lets talk about counter-energy horses, races #7 (and race #4)

Back in a bit...

Ted

I got to thinking about why you would suggest this and I impressed myself by pretty much thinking along the lines of your explaination, that to me was a bigtime boost in my confidence. now let me get to work on counter-energy race 4 and 7 and get back to you.

Spot play number 1 thank you can not say it all, but thanks Ted

Patrick

[Ted Craven]

Patrick, continuing on further analysis of this card, on the topic of Counter Energy, I identified 2 races of interest, races 4 and 7. Observing who is running positionally opposite to the Earlies and disbursing their energy opposite to the indicated Win contenders.

Race 7. I'd agree with your 2 Win bets, the 6 and 8, thus the Win wager would be lost. Thinking about concentrating on Win and Place (thus Exactas), consider the following Analysis and Result Chart excerpt:






Positionally, the 3 (the Winner) and 5 are Other Than Early and there is some Early Pressure in this race. Energy disbursement-wise, the 3 and 5 are also the Late (opposite) horses, with the 5 being most Late. You'd have to make a further judgement call, looking at their respective PPs and bet-time odds (9/2 for the #3 versus 21-1 for the #5) as to which was ready to duplicate, improve, decline off the chosen lines (public thought #3, and strong 5f prep 4 days earlier).

An Exacta box on the Win contenders including the #3 picks up the Exacta (to offset the losing Win bets), including the #5 loses today. You'd have to draw your own conclusions on which of those opposite horses was liklier.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Continuing the Counter-energy examples available from this card is Race 4.

You got the exacta in this race by including the strongest counter-energy horse underneath your Win bets of 2 & 6 (I might have suggested the 1 and 6, given the bet-time odds on the 2 - same result though). The #3 horse was the most Late or distributed most Late, and was held at reasonable bet-time odds of around 5-1.





Again, these examples have nothing to do with red-boarding, but rather, just trying to bring your attention to considering some race dynamics which may help while you're still focusing on only the Win and Place horses.

Finally, regarding Exacta betting, may I suggest (if you've not already done so), reviewing the 55% Solution Manual in the Library.

Continued good luck, good record keeping and good focus Patrick!

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Many Thanks Ted

Great stuff, keeps me thinking in different ways, keeps me sharp and always open to new ways to see things, like winners. This stuff is so much fun, I can not wait to be fulltime doing this, as I know with you all here and my superb skills, lol, I will be the best in no time, actually I am improving and seeing things better this time, thinking more from Doc and Hat and Tom's perspective, as well the people here now, I'm in heaven, thanks again.

More homework please, I love it, anyone got homework for me please PM or put it up here, let me at it.

Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Continuing the Counter-energy examples available from this card is Race 4.

You got the exacta in this race by including the strongest counter-energy horse underneath your Win bets of 2 & 6 (I might have suggested the 1 and 6, given the bet-time odds on the 2 - same result though). The #3 horse was the most Late or distributed most Late, and was held at reasonable bet-time odds of around 5-1.

Attachment 19779

Attachment 19780

Again, these examples have nothing to do with red-boarding, but rather, just trying to bring your attention to considering some race dynamics which may help while you're still focusing on only the Win and Place horses.

Finally, regarding Exacta betting, may I suggest (if you've not already done so), reviewing the 55% Solution Manual in the Library.

Continued good luck, good record keeping and good focus Patrick!

Ted

Great explanation Sir.

I let myself have a few days off and come back, reread this post and see things different once in awhile, I now have more things to help me look at finding a contender, or pretender, (M/L fav) , now you went over race 4 and 7, and is ther anything specific you wanted me to look at??

Thanks again

Patrick