Belmont 05-17-09 Races 1, 2 and 7 (Betting Opportunities) ??? - Pace and Cap

partsnut · 05-17-2009, 09:43 AM

Belmont 05-17-09 Races 1, 2 and 7 (Betting Opportunities)

***R1 - (7) Greg's Lassy ML 3-1 look for a real time odds range of ( 5-2 to 6-1 ).If this one goes under 5-2 pass the race.

???R2 - (1) Missile ML 8-5 look for a real time odds range of ( 5-2 to 6-1 ). If this one goes under 5-2 pass the race.

***R7 - (5) Eagle Poise ML 4-1 look for a real time odds range of ( 5-2 to 3-1). If this one goes under 5-2 pass the race.

clore1030 · 05-17-2009, 11:39 AM

You've pretty much nailed my plan for Greg's Lassy.

The only other race that I've done is the third where my rankings come in the exact same order as the morning line.

I'm holding off on the turf races as my bad knee says it's going to rain.

partsnut · 05-17-2009, 01:27 PM

clore1030

Quote:

You've pretty much nailed my plan for Greg's Lassy.

The only other race that I've done is the third where my rankings come in the exact same order as the morning line.

I'm holding off on the turf races as my bad knee says it's going to rain.

Althought my selection as well as yours won easily, I opted not to bet him because his odds where a click under my odds line and did not exceed it to where it would fit into my acceptable odds line range.

My pick in the 2nd was scratched so now I will wait for the 7th race.
This could be a decent play if it doesn't scratch.

Good luck in the 3rd.

clore1030 · 05-17-2009, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

clore1030

Althought my selection as well as yours won easily, I opted not to bet him because his odds where a click under my odds line and did not exceed it to where it would fit into my acceptable odds line range.

My pick in the 2nd was scratched so now I will wait for the 7th race.
This could be a decent play if it doesn't scratch.

Good luck in the 3rd.

My sentiments exactly. I've really cut down on my wagers, using a spot play method that mandates a certain EPR advantage and certain acceptable odds. Also, no significantly off tracks either. My modeling is based on fast tracks only.

Since Belmont opened, I've made only 12 wagers (one horse bets) and cashed in on 6 of them at an average mutuel of $16.80. At that rate, I don't mind tossing away the little fish.

clore1030 · 05-17-2009, 01:55 PM

Digger in the third at BEL is almost a play. I want a minimum of 3/1 odds and a 2 point EPR advantage.

Digger has odds of 5/2 and a 1.5 EPR advantage.

Close, but no cigar and I refuse to divert from my plan.

clore1030 · 05-17-2009, 02:24 PM

The 3 horse in the fourth at Belmont would make it except its odds are too low.

Besides, its EPR figs, while superior, are from PHA, a track that is consistently out-of-whack as far as equalization is concerned. The horse's EPR figs from other tracks are markedly lower.

Looks like another pass.

mikesal57 · 05-17-2009, 02:49 PM

Hey Charles...

is this what u mean about a 2 pt advantage...

this is just an example race

clore1030 · 05-17-2009, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hey Charles...

is this what u mean about a 2 pt advantage...

this is just an example race

Yes, but I should mention that I'm only applying that to dirt races. But the weather here has been such that grass races were almost non-existent, or else the courses were "off."

While I do handicap races that are cheaper (I need data for my track model), I've only wagered on claiming races for a 20K or higher tag, and all other non-claimers, if the odds and EPR advantage were present.

The reason for setting a threshold for claimers is two-fold.

First, my own rate of success was less and less with each step below the 20K level, and also setting that limit does allow me to get some prices on fit horses moving up the ladder.

mikesal57 · 05-17-2009, 03:32 PM

thxs...understood

mikesal57 · 05-17-2009, 03:37 PM

AP 4th...win bets 5 & 8

05-17-2009, 09:43 AM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Belmont 05-17-09 Races 1, 2 and 7 (Betting Opportunities) ??? Belmont 05-17-09 Races 1, 2 and 7 (Betting Opportunities) *****R1 - (7) Greg's Lassy ML 3-1 look for a real time odds range of ( 5-2 to 6-1 ).If this one goes under 5-2 pass the race. ???R2 - (1) Missile ML 8-5 look for a real time odds range of ( 5-2 to 6-1 ). If this one goes under 5-2 pass the race. ***R7 - (5) Eagle Poise ML 4-1 look for a real time odds range of ( 5-2 to 3-1). If this one goes under 5-2 pass the race.**

05-17-2009, 02:49 PM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Hey Charles... is this what u mean about a 2 pt advantage... this is just an example race Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

05-17-2009, 03:32 PM	#9
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thxs...understood __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

05-17-2009, 03:37 PM	#10
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	AP 4th...win bets 5 & 8 __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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05-17-2009, 11:39 AM	#2
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	You've pretty much nailed my plan for Greg's Lassy. The only other race that I've done is the third where my rankings come in the exact same order as the morning line. I'm holding off on the turf races as my bad knee says it's going to rain.

05-17-2009, 01:55 PM	#5
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Digger in the third at BEL is almost a play. I want a minimum of 3/1 odds and a 2 point EPR advantage. Digger has odds of 5/2 and a 1.5 EPR advantage. Close, but no cigar and I refuse to divert from my plan.

05-17-2009, 02:24 PM	#6
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	The 3 horse in the fourth at Belmont would make it except its odds are too low. Besides, its EPR figs, while superior, are from PHA, a track that is consistently out-of-whack as far as equalization is concerned. The horse's EPR figs from other tracks are markedly lower. Looks like another pass.