Projecting Finish Times - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 11-22-2006, 11:51 AM

Jim:
When it becomes necessary to project a final time for one reason or another, I am not sure that I understand the proper application of two for one energy loss. I want to put forth some examples that progressively show the issue;

Focusing on "E" and "E/P" types for now:

Base line pace of race: 22 - 45 - 110; 3rd fraction 25
Projected pace: 21.4 - 45 -
my 3rd fraction here would be 25.2, with a final time of 110.2

Same base line, but projected pace is 21.4 - 44.4
Is the proper adjustment for 3rd fraction 25.4, yielding a 110.4, or
do you consider that 1 tick early at 1st call probably makes the horse 1 tick faster at second call as well, and therefore do not penalize horse any more?

How do you evaluate the final fraction when the 1st fraction projects faster, but the 2nd fraction projects slower (using same baseline as above):

(as I write this I realize that this might apply more to an early presser who does not necessarily control his destiny, than a straight "E" type)

projected pace is 21.4 - 45.2
I would assume that energy lost is lost forever, but are we how to view a horse in this situation?

In the opposite case of slower first fractions I would assume adjustments in the other direction, but perhaps only up to some limiting point. At some point each horse would seem to have a practical limit as to how fast it could run the 3rd fraction. Is it prudent in the projection process to observe from past performance what this limiting fraction is and apply it instead of the stringent application of 2 units gained for 1 unit of slower time?

Finally, are the guidelines for final time projection the same for routes as for sprints? Since we have three fractions to evaluate before final fraction in routes, do we take note of pace differentials at all three points?

All lot of questions I know, so any help in any area is appreciated. By the way, is the new Match Up book going to be available before Christmas?

Thanks Jim:

Bill

forecast · 11-22-2006, 12:13 PM

Great questions, Bill!

Bill Lyster · 11-22-2006, 02:54 PM

Sorry I meant to say that the final time that I would project in the above example would be a 3rd fraction of 25.4 on top of a 2nd call time of 44.4, which would make my projected final time 110.3 not 110.4 as indicated earlier.

THE HAT · 11-22-2006, 02:59 PM

Guys

The winner of a race will be determined on how the horse distributes his energy throughout the race, not whether one fraction is greater that the other. This is the reason that horses with the best final time do not always win. For years I stated, " For every fifth of a second faster the horse has to run at the start, it costs two-fifths of a second at the finish." Many
"traditional handicappers" frowned on this statement, until Huey Mahl, by the Law of Physics, proved the statement to be true and applies in both sprint and route races.
(Thanks for your patients: My new book is at the binders and should be ready right way.)

11-22-2006, 11:51 AM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Projecting Finish Times Jim: When it becomes necessary to project a final time for one reason or another, I am not sure that I understand the proper application of two for one energy loss. I want to put forth some examples that progressively show the issue; Focusing on "E" and "E/P" types for now: Base line pace of race: 22 - 45 - 110; 3rd fraction 25 Projected pace: 21.4 - 45 - my 3rd fraction here would be 25.2, with a final time of 110.2 Same base line, but projected pace is 21.4 - 44.4 Is the proper adjustment for 3rd fraction 25.4, yielding a 110.4, or do you consider that 1 tick early at 1st call probably makes the horse 1 tick faster at second call as well, and therefore do not penalize horse any more? How do you evaluate the final fraction when the 1st fraction projects faster, but the 2nd fraction projects slower (using same baseline as above): (as I write this I realize that this might apply more to an early presser who does not necessarily control his destiny, than a straight "E" type) projected pace is 21.4 - 45.2 I would assume that energy lost is lost forever, but are we how to view a horse in this situation? In the opposite case of slower first fractions I would assume adjustments in the other direction, but perhaps only up to some limiting point. At some point each horse would seem to have a practical limit as to how fast it could run the 3rd fraction. Is it prudent in the projection process to observe from past performance what this limiting fraction is and apply it instead of the stringent application of 2 units gained for 1 unit of slower time? Finally, are the guidelines for final time projection the same for routes as for sprints? Since we have three fractions to evaluate before final fraction in routes, do we take note of pace differentials at all three points? All lot of questions I know, so any help in any area is appreciated. By the way, is the new Match Up book going to be available before Christmas? Thanks Jim: Bill

11-22-2006, 02:54 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	slight adjustment in 21.4 -44.4 example Sorry I meant to say that the final time that I would project in the above example would be a 3rd fraction of 25.4 on top of a 2nd call time of 44.4, which would make my projected final time 110.3 not 110.4 as indicated earlier.

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11-22-2006, 12:13 PM	#2
forecast AlwNW3X Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 44	Great questions, Bill!

11-22-2006, 02:59 PM	#4
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Guys The winner of a race will be determined on how the horse distributes his energy throughout the race, not whether one fraction is greater that the other. This is the reason that horses with the best final time do not always win. For years I stated, " For every fifth of a second faster the horse has to run at the start, it costs two-fifths of a second at the finish." Many "traditional handicappers" frowned on this statement, until Huey Mahl, by the Law of Physics, proved the statement to be true and applies in both sprint and route races. (Thanks for your patients: My new book is at the binders and should be ready right way.)