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01-24-2017, 09:53 PM | #11 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 10
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Here's another situation - same race...Mark T has the same ranks in both setups, but the BL Score is different...
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01-24-2017, 10:59 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Hi, I'll look at this further tomorrow. Could you post a screenshot of your Configure Tab settings, just so I can produce the same numbers as you.
Thanks, Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
01-24-2017, 11:05 PM | #13 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 10
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This is the configuration I had for the last post I made in response to Bill's...I think the settings were different before that. I'll keep them here for the time being.
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01-25-2017, 08:01 AM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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Quote:
What I see is when you bring TWO DO up from the secondary contenders, it brings up a horse who is ranked 3rd in EPR and 2nd in TT. Notice that affects the readings of BALLIN lowing its rank to #4 and also affectin MO TOWN and MARK T's rankings as well. That happens again within TT as TWO DO is tying in ranking with MARK T. This has caused the 3 horses ranked above AMERICAN MINK to have have larger BL scores and not changing AMERICAN MINKS but AMERICAN MINK has closed the gap on the horses ranked above it making its odds ranking to be lowered. I am not real good at writing what I am seeing but I hope maybe this might help. Ray |
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01-25-2017, 07:19 PM | #15 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Quote:
Just for the record, since Dr Sartin never published the 'formula' for weighting the Primary Factors to come up with BLBL score, neither have I. However ... and anyone doing this for 2 minutes will create their own answers: 1) clear Analysis then add 1 paceline: all ranks are #1 and the BL score is 24.5. Now you know the weighted value of rank #1 2) add another paceline: now some ranks are #1 and some #2. Knowing the points value of a rank #1, now you know the weighted value of a rank #2 3) FYI, BL Scores ending in .3 really mean .25 - they're just rounded up for compactness of presentation 4) and so on ... In your example with 4 horses in the Primary Group, now you know how #3 American Mink got BL Score = 18.0 Take note of the Primary Line Score (PLS) of the #1 and #3 (20 and 21 respectively). Now, when you add the #2 as the 5th horse to the Primary Group, because it has a couple of good #2 ranks, it bleeds a couple of factors' ranks from the #1 horse, who as a result now has a Primary Line Score (PLS) of 21 - same as the #3 had before and still has. Now for the nuance. When 2 horses have the same PLS, they get the same BL Score. Regardless of the composition of the ranks in the Primary factor array, if they sum to the same PLS, they're equal in our assessment of an Oddsline. Conceptually, one horse may have longer ML Odds and 'look' dodgier, but if it's a fairly chosen paceline (i.e. it could be duplicated today given the horse's current form and competition) and is otherwise a reasonable Contender - well, that's how you get longer odds horses as Contenders on the BL Oddsline. Now that the #3 and #1 horses have the same BL score (and same BL Odds line = 1.8-1), since the BL ties are broken by Total Energy, the #3 shows above the #1 - but they're really equal on the Oddsline. We say they're in the same 'tier'. That's the answer to why the BL Score and BL Odds change when adding other horses. I didn't invent it - Doc Sartin did, and it has seemed to hold up remarkably well over the years given proper paceline selection and Contender qualification. I am making no comment on pacelines chosen or other qualification of the horses - I just used your pacelines and horses to illustrate the mechanics. I know you're just trying to drill down and get a handle on the Oddsline mechanism, possibly to know if you can trust it. Fair enough! The next step would be to understand VDC, since it modulates BLBL and incorporates deceleration. Then, if you are interested, consider checking out the Rx factor in the testing version RDSS 2.1 (just ask). To BLBL/VDC, it adds Class, Consistency, Early vs Late pressure, and an outside non-correlated Oddsline (either ML or BRISnet ProfitLine) into a further weighted Oddsline - the Rx Line. Hope that helps. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 01-25-2017 at 08:00 PM. Reason: clarity |
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01-25-2017, 07:29 PM | #16 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 10
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Ted,
Thanks - that was pretty much what I figured - that specific situation was a rare enough and strange enough behavior, that I wanted to be sure it was working as intended. |
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