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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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07-30-2013, 11:37 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pace line question
Here is my answer to pace line question
This might not be the best choice for everybody but its how I would look at it. The issue is which line would I use line 1 or line 3 ? I would use line 3. Line 1 is a plus race, so is line 3 Line 1 has a speed rating of 80, Line 3 has a speed rating of 85 The 85 is not out of the norm for this horse I see it has run 86 speed ratings in line 9 and line 6 The person who asked this question does not use RDSS but my decision is supported by the early late graph, In line 3 the horse ran its normal energy pattern of about + 9 or 10 (his EP was 9 points higher than it LP ) In the last line the horse ran with more energy late than early so it shows a -.5 It looks to me like this was a tired horse. The trainer gave it a 4 week freshening. after a plus race. I look at this as a positive form factor. without that freshening break I would use line 1. But with that break, I would use line 3 I would use line 3 over line 1 |
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