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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 09-10-2017, 10:43 PM   #41
For The Lead
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Shoeless,

As I said a couple of posts back, DON’T BE CONFUSED!
I maintain that horses ‘off’ more than 90 days win 5% or less. This covers ALL races at any class or surface.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atkinsrr View Post
Shoeless, a comment about #1 on your list of 5 important things on P/L selection.
this year I have handicapped 250 races which are mostly stakes and high optional claimers. out of those 250 47 horses with layoffs of 80 days or more have ran. I use 80 instead of 90. out of that 47 there have been 19 winners and 28 losers for a win % of 40.4. Also about 80% of my races are on the turf.....thought this might be of interest......Randy A.
In the above post, among horses ‘off’ more than 80 days (which cuts off 10 days from my recommendation) there were 19 winners. Now, 19 (winners) divided by 250 (total races) =7.6% (win percentage), which is slightly higher than my stat, but NOT accurately compared.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.
The 40.4% win percentage is arrived at by taking 19 (winners) divided by 47 (horses ‘off’ more than 80 days) = 40.4%. Not exactly a comparison of apples to apples when taken vs. my stat.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.

Let me add some more information for you.
Somewhere in all of my posts, I acknowledged that horses at the high end of the class ladder win more frequently after being ‘off’ more than 90 days than do horses at the lower end of the class ladder. But, that doesn’t change my overall stat. The fact of the matter is, if you are only playing the high end of the class ladder, you are not going to play very often.
Also, “TURF” or “GRASS” racing only accounts for approximately 10% of all races run each year, year after year. So again, if your play is going to be limited to turf/grass racing at the high end of the class ladder, you not going to be playing much.
The help I am offering to you and anyone else reading this is for the day to day, bread and butter races that make up the very large majority of the races we encounter day in and day out.

Good Luck!
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Old 09-12-2017, 07:45 PM   #42
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Thanks FTL
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Old 09-16-2017, 11:07 AM   #43
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FTL

Lets say today is a sprint and the variegate comes up late and
when your looking at the late energy you notice at the 2nd call
the horse is way back.

Would you still consider as a win bet?

I guess what I'm getting at is do you take into consideration
how far back the horse is at the 2nd call

Jeff
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Old 09-17-2017, 05:24 PM   #44
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FTL and Bill

I was using Energy over the weekend at Parx concentrating on 6
and 6.5 furlong races.

There were a few presser and sustained races which FTL I didn't
look at the sort. I noticed that the winners were coming from that
3rd fraction readout on late. Also a 9-1 and 21-1 ranked 2nd that
placed with the winner in the top 3.

The variegate seems to really nail how the race will be run

I know it's a small sample but maybe there is hope at the end of
the tunnel after all.

Thanks

Last edited by shoeless; 09-17-2017 at 05:30 PM.
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Old 09-18-2017, 02:32 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
FTL

Lets say today is a sprint and the variegate comes up late and
when your looking at the late energy you notice at the 2nd call
the horse is way back.

Would you still consider as a win bet?

I guess what I'm getting at is do you take into consideration
how far back the horse is at the 2nd call

Jeff
Here’s the thing. IF you trust your contender selection and paceline selection, then trust what the program tells you. Keep in mind that the computer program is as dumb as dirt, until you provide it with information and it is relying on the information you give it in order to do it’s job. It is not going to be correct 100% of the time, nothing is. So don’t second guess it.
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Old 09-18-2017, 04:42 PM   #46
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Hi Jeff

Energy users and the Dos programs of that era were highly dependent
on track models,

How far back a horse can be at the second call ( and first call )
based on your model is the answer Doc' most likely would ask you if you asked this question, My advice is to model this and model the MUV and UXR readouts.

I see from your most recent post you are focusing on 6 and 6.5-furlong races from Parx. That's good, and I love how your confidence is growing.
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Old 09-18-2017, 08:42 PM   #47
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Old 09-18-2017, 09:55 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
FTL and Bill

I was using Energy over the weekend at Parx concentrating on 6
and 6.5 furlong races.

There were a few presser and sustained races which FTL I didn't
look at the sort. I noticed that the winners were coming from that
3rd fraction readout on late. Also a 9-1 and 21-1 ranked 2nd that
placed with the winner in the top 3.

The variegate seems to really nail how the race will be run

I know it's a small sample but maybe there is hope at the end of
the tunnel after all.

Thanks
Shoeless,

Here is the race Richie P put up the other day. It is race 4 from Remington on 9/16/17.

This is the way I did the race.
FIRST - the #5 horse was scratched.
SECOND - throw out the #6 and #8 horses as their ML was 20/1 and 30/1 respectively.
The remainning horses are #'s 1,2,3,4,7,9.

Now, horse by horse;
#1 - last line. The race was just 17 days ago and it is a (+) race. Why? It made up ground between the first and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.
#2 - last line. The race was just 12 days ago and it is a + race. why? It won the race.
#3 - last line. The race was just 17 days ago and it is a + race. why? It ran third.
#4 - NO LINE. why not? It has just one race in the last 90 days. In fact, it has just one race in the last 152 days. It is a turf race, so it is not comparable.
#7 - last line. The race was just 9 days ago and it is a + race. why? It ran third.
#9 - line 2. The race was 50 days ago and it was a + race. why> It won the race. Now, this horse has only 9 lifetime races, so they are all there for you to see. Take note that it made its' first start 728 days ago when it was just 2 years old. It was a Maiden Special Weight race, so its' connections had hopes for it. Notice the steady decline in class of race after that. Also notice that its' first 7 race were all on the turf. After its' second race it was off 172 days. That's almost 6 months. Then after its' 6th race it was off for 358 days or just about one year. The second race back after that lastoff it was dropped to its' lowest level and won. This time on the dirt. It then racein a 7F race. Ok, so the 7F race iisn't comparable and all the turf races aren't comparable, so all you are left with is the winning race, two back, on a muddy track. Oh well, that's all we have so we have to use it.

Now we have 5 horses to consider.
Here are the results in ENERGY.
I have marked some things in RED so just follow along.
Attached Images
  
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Old 09-18-2017, 09:57 PM   #49
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the rset of the screen shots

A pretty easy $16.00 winner.
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Old 09-19-2017, 12:54 PM   #50
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Early DD @ Parx 9/19

After reading through this thread (a great thread BTW!), I've played around with Energy! a bit. I admit that I am a novice with the readouts and whatnot, but as FTL has pointed out numerous times, good contenders and pacelines will yield dividends. A basic knowledge of what to look for in this program has been my guide. That said, I made some calls re: the early DD at Parx. Here is my DD ticket FWIW:

Race 1: 1-2-5 (Variegate Sustained)
Race 2: 4 (Variegate Early)
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