|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
04-05-2016, 01:03 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Phase 1 race TUP race 6 4/5
My look at the 6th from Turf Paradise 5.5
Az Breds Cl 3000 3 + non winners of 1 race in 6 months or 4 races life time Horse 1 has 12 wins Horse 2 has 10 wins Rest of field have 3 wins each Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1 9 5 4 2 6 Step 2 Fulcrum horse #2 94.5 ( 44.7 ) Step 3 Running styles Horse 1 Sus line 1 20/1 ML Horse 2 Early Line 1 Horse 3 Press Line 2 Excuse line 1 First try at TUP Horse 4 EP line 1 Horse 5 Sus line 1 20/1 ML Horse 6 EP Line 1 Horse 7 EP Line 1 Horse 8 Press line 2 Horse 9 Press line 1 Step 4 Who has the top EPR The 2 has the best EPR 94.5 Early Presser Can It go wire to wire = No but it is inside the 4 6 and 7 However the 79.5 LPR is a knock Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions Can the top TPR # 9 win 2 in a row ? The top TPR horses They are 9 8 5 Top 3 VDC = 4 2 9-8 tie My bets 4 and 9 I will use the 5 in exactas |
04-05-2016, 03:27 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
I'll go with 6-8-7, in that order. Quick look as I have to go out. Will try to get a second look later. Perhaps some scratches. The # 9 ran a career high in last and see no reason for improvement or that he can repeat it. Definite speed duel race.
Mitch44 |
04-05-2016, 04:23 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
|
I have the 4-9-2 as my top 3 contenders in that order.
|
04-05-2016, 06:15 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,164
|
Since I see this is a cheap claiming race where the 4 -5-9 all won their last I'll toss them to repeat. This leaves me 2-6-8. The 8 looks like it maybe going off form so I'll end up with the 2 & 6.
Tim |
04-05-2016, 06:46 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
|
Well
It's 8 min to post and the 5 is 20-1 think i will have a little fun here and bet the 5 w-p-s. Maybe all the speed will fall down. Yea right, early speed wins 41% at turf paradise at this distance.
Bob |
04-05-2016, 07:12 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
|
Tuff race
Looks like we all missed this one.
Rmath |
04-05-2016, 08:52 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Yes we did and a ugly race, couldn't get the 3 better than 4th. Not much confidence in this race. That 3 should have paid even more. Good training and not something to dwell on as it was one of those that was not beatable.
Onward, Mitch44 |
04-06-2016, 09:27 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
PP's
Hi Everyone
I am so sorry for the delay .. GEE how do people in eastern Arizona/New Mexico survive in 2016 with such poor hot spot wifi . Every time I pulled over on the road and checked I had NO BARS!!! No networks in range, AHHHH. Anyway the race turned out to be a dud for us, but lets look at the race, A very nice man who has helped me greatly did not download the card, So I want to give him a look. Here are the race conditions Now here is the field |
04-06-2016, 09:29 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Horses
1 2 3 4 5
|
04-06-2016, 09:32 PM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Horses
6 7 8 9
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Adjustments Question | Ted Craven | RDSS2 / FAQ's | 3 | 06-29-2014 03:22 PM |
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST | Ted Craven | August Contest | 1 | 07-24-2012 10:09 PM |
Del Mar Race 9 | Bill V. | General Discussion | 2 | 07-23-2012 09:40 PM |
Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class | RichieP | Matchup Discussion | 19 | 11-26-2011 04:22 PM |
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles | Ted Craven | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 19 | 03-22-2010 06:06 PM |