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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 12-16-2013, 06:52 PM   #1
CaptDon100
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Need Help Finding the Win Bet

I am having trouble picking my win bet. I go through all the pace lines. When I get to my top 4 picks, the winner is in the top 4, but I always seem to miss it.
If my top 4 are 3-1-5-4 and the winning order is 4-7-5-3. I use the top BL/BL and bet the 3 and 1. This happens a lot, I use the segment screen and BL/BL screen. I have spent a lot of time learning pace lines when I realized that was important to master ( still trying). Now, I am frustrated at being so close but keep missing the winners.
Thanks Don
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Old 12-16-2013, 08:29 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Wow

Hello Don

I know this is not some deep key to the universe response that will solve all your problems on this subject but..

First off If you really never pick the winner out of your top 4 BLBl
you need to stop betting !!!! as Jim Bradshaw said ..go raise guppies

Now If you do your 20 race cycles and find that its more a case of your not winning enough, then here is what I suggest ..

First off if I had your issues depending on a readout or screen on RDSS as the only decision making tool is hard. you will usually be looking and zigging and zagging
I would need to make proper decisions. I would need to do my home work on contender and pace lines and then bet the two horse I feel have the best chance to win the race based on the odds I'm getting and the match up
This is were some screens like the segments or TPR early and late screens
can HELP. Every screen is not a final decision screen.

If and when I used to just wing it and bet my top 2 BLBL I was looking probably at at least 1 of the horses who has peaked in ability in the race I selected for a pace line.
Horses who rank third or fourth usually offer better value.
They might be third or fourth because I may have had a non contender in my top 3

I think the biggest key is limiting your decisions to horse who you truly feel can pay off in the win or underneath positions
and avoid extra work for the program.
I would keep better records too because I don't think you Never get the winner
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Old 12-16-2013, 08:37 PM   #3
polambi
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I know what u mean. Having the winner in the top BL in not enough for you to win, since it is not practical to bet 4 horses.
My suggestion is to seriously pay attention to the RUNNING STYLE and the EARLY PACE of the horses in your top 4 BL.
In sprints, for example: if your top 4 BL are 1-3-5-7, and you notice that 7 has better EP than 1, therefore 7 should be one of your two horses to bet. Same goes for running style. You don't want to play an S horse over an E horse, simply because it is on top of your BL.
Finally, before making your final decision, look at what your two selections have accomplished in their last starts. Did they win anything, of finished within 2 lengths of the winner in either of their last three of four outings.
I make it a habit not to bet on losers. I hope that helps
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Old 12-16-2013, 08:48 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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Don, can we have a couple of specific examples?

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Old 12-16-2013, 10:13 PM   #5
CaptDon100
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I am trying to use my snip tool, but I can't get it to work. I need to get an example up on the screen. I can snip it, but I can't get it as an attachment.
I am working on it
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Old 12-16-2013, 10:44 PM   #6
CaptDon100
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Bill, Thanks for your reply, It's not that I never get the winner, I am trying to improve my game. I do keep records, There are races that I should have won, but missed. I send a lot of time on pace lines and the fact that my winners are in the top 4 is good, I just need to narrow it down. The race I was trying to past was the 7th at FG on 12-15 I had 6-7-5-1 and 5-1-6-7 came in.
I played 6-7. I don't always pick all 4 on top, but this one I did. That is a frustrating miss.
Thanks
Don
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Old 12-17-2013, 05:44 AM   #7
Bill V.
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race

Hi Don

Quote:
When I get to my top 4 picks, the winner is in the top 4, but I always seem to miss it.
I thought you might be a little harsh on your ability

Don I can't do the 7th race at Fairgrounds myself as the card is not available.

Really at this point all I could have done is give you advice on why I might have by passed the 6 or the 7.

Since you have horse 5 right in your top 3 BLBL
If you can find reasons to bet against these two low odds horses you can get
the 10/1 winner.

Based on the odds I see following every thing in the follow ups and way back to the yellow manual. If you feel the 5 is a true contender you have to have something on this horse at 10/1

I hope you figure out the screen shot procedure

Bill

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Old 12-17-2013, 09:29 AM   #8
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Got some things I HAVE to get done this morn Don, but I play FG and think I remember this race was a puzzler. When I get back I'll pull my records and compare notes for you. I think that will give Bill a little more to work with here.
In the meantime, console yourself knowing there have been LOTS of frustrated folks playing FG so far this meet.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:00 AM   #9
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Screenshots FG #7 12/15

Before I go, found it!
I still do my final work w/ pen and paper.
My final 4 W contenders were 7-5-3-4.
Attached Images
  
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Old 12-17-2013, 03:10 PM   #10
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptDon100 View Post
Bill, Thanks for your reply, It's not that I never get the winner, I am trying to improve my game. I do keep records, There are races that I should have won, but missed. I send a lot of time on pace lines and the fact that my winners are in the top 4 is good, I just need to narrow it down. The race I was trying to past was the 7th at FG on 12-15 I had 6-7-5-1 and 5-1-6-7 came in.
I played 6-7. I don't always pick all 4 on top, but this one I did. That is a frustrating miss.
Thanks
Don
Don,

I will post a workup of this race next, but just using YOUR handicapping, YOUR final Odds Line rankings of 6-7-5-1 (although I disagree with you about the #6) - I'd like to suggest that with the #5 closing near 10-1 - IF you presume that your top 3 BL/BL have an equally good chance to win (which you should strongly consider), your 2 horse bet should have been the 6-5, not the 6-7, and you could have considered betting the #5 to place as well.

The reasoning is - take your Top horse at YOUR minimum odds (you would have had to set that on the cusp of 5/2 or 2-1 for the #6 horse) and your longest odds of the remaining Top 3 (the #5). You will find this idea discussed often, not only in these pages but in the later Follow Ups under the topic of 'wagercapping'.

Pick any race you like - get your BL Odds line in order - include only true contenders to Win, separate out the not-for-win horses. Then apply the foregoing logic. You will win and lose some by omitting the wrong horse of your Top 3, but by including the BEST of your Odds Line horses at YOUR minimum odds (say 5/2 or 3-1) and the other longest horse - when you win, you'll be making up for the times you lose with better odds (and picking up the odd saver with the Place hedge). Exacta bets are a separate discussion.

However, kindly consider the points in my next post about paceline selection, contender ID (especially re recency), but most especially the effect of too much early pressure!

I'll take a look at your Message Editor layout and see why you don't have the 'paper-clip' attachment icon to attach screenshots to your posts. At the worst case, we can hook up and I'll show you how it's done, no worries.

Give me a few minutes to get my next post up ...

Ted

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Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-17-2013 at 03:35 PM.
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