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08-10-2018, 03:23 PM | #31 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Welcome navyvet! In almost ALL situations - for myself - I start with the built-in RDSS automated Paceline Selection Strategy tool (PSS), the Default setting, to get a line to represent a horse. Others may use different, though hopefully consistent strategies.
Sometimes I DO double-check the line thus selected when the software algorithm may get confused by stuff like All Weather versus Turf versus Dirt lines, or whether a legitimate excuse in a recent running line means it would be unfair to not go back further into a horse history to represent it. (Situations where I tend to dive deeper into line selection are in 2 YO races, lightly raced horses, horses stretching out or switching surfaces, or when races switch surfaces). Anyway, that's how I myself pick pacelines - 99% automatically. Plus, some of the readouts I tend to use lately, on the Rx screen (and soon on the Rx+ screen) are NOT dependent on a single paceline, rather a formulaic calculation involving multiple lines (internal CR+ Class rating, CSR Composite Speed Rating) or external non-correlated ratings like Morning Line, TwinSpires sourced ProfitLine or Prime Power, plus the live public odds in the Win Pool and co-related to other pools (a proxy for 'wisdom of the crowd' or all 'inside/non-public' knowledege). This tends to reduce the impact of choosing a single line to rate a horse, BUT - when that single line is chosen by strict formula (e.g. PSS = Default = 'Best of Last 3 Comparable Surface/Distance structure'), then you might as well look at it as not-a-single-paceline IF using that formula is predictive (according to your model-keeping) over a significant number of like events. In other words - no 'judgement' required: just take the line given (though always, 'caveat emptor'). As to documentation - start with the RDSS 2.1 Documentation set put together by Mick, in the RDSS 2.1 Forum Documentation section! Cheers, Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
08-10-2018, 09:50 PM | #32 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
Right out of the box he asked the $64 question !!! One answer is...like opinions, everybody has one. Consistency, however, is “key”. Avoid “coulda, shoulda,woulda” at all costs. Avoid zigging when you “shoulda” been zagging! Ted’s answer, being a programmer, is naturally a consistent approach. In spite of that, Ted advises that there are times when he has to change the line his program has chosen for various reasons, though they are few and far between. Regardless, his approach is consistent. Another consistent approach is known as “For The Lead’s Guidelines”. Although these guidelines are attributed to me, I cannot take all the credit for them. Actually, the majority of these guidelines are the original guidelines lines used by Howard Sartin. I simply added a couple additional guidelines supported by research done on millions of horses and hundreds of thousands of races. Here is a link to where you can find them. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11449 Once you get there just click on the link “Picking Contenders and Paceline Selection”. Although this section is about your initial concern, there is other information there that you can always come back to. Best of luck to you!
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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08-10-2018, 10:13 PM | #33 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Westbrook, Maine
Posts: 63
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FTL I did just that and automatically got answer to other questions I had not even asked about. again I truly thank all of you very much. next up will be the learning making mistakes and hoping to show and get an analysis where I may have gone wrong. Best way to learn.
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08-12-2018, 09:36 PM | #34 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Westbrook, Maine
Posts: 63
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I have another question. FTL mentions Bullrings and I understand the concept. Besides Delta Downs and Charles Town are there others?
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