Verification - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

rdiam · 03-12-2021, 11:32 AM

Curious in your study how often your 5+ contenders made up more than 50% of the number of runners. I would think a better test would incorporate this statistic. As an extreme example, using the method in a 5 horse field gets you the "contenders" 100% of the time, but that is a bogus stat. Much better to only count the races where your "contenders" make up a maximum of 50% of the field. Thanks.

Richard

rmath · 03-12-2021, 12:01 PM

rdiam, Not sure, I was only looking at cards with a p-6 .
Most races in a P-6 usually have 8-12 entries.
In 85-90% of these races I get it down to 3 main contenders for win and have 75+% of the winners in these. In about 10-15% of the races I have a long shot as a 4th horse.

Hope this answers your question.
Rmathi

So Cal Al · 03-12-2021, 03:19 PM

In order to cover the top 5 contenders for 1000 races, the cost is $10 per race 5x2=10x1000=$10,000. Does the total payoff of the 91.9% win rate exceed $10,000? Just wondering!

rmath · 03-12-2021, 05:16 PM

AL, I can not answer that question for two reasons:
1) i would never bet 5 horses in a race and
2) I was looking for P-4, P-5 and P-6 plays.
I do have the results for all these races But have never totaled up the win payoffs.
I will say that my multi race tickets have been profitable.
Rmath,

Lt1 · 03-12-2021, 06:01 PM

I will chime in here. I have run multi surveys over several years to verify that the top 5 Prime and Profit ranked horses win up to 90% of races run. I didn't confine myself to major tracks but included tracks like MVR, TDN,WRD.DED DOWNS where the animals running at those track are not the soundest creatures on the planet. I didn't wager on every race nor did I include short fields. in my surveys. I am satisfied that the top 5 ranked horses are still performing to high level. Did anybody believe that Bob Purdy or Doc bet on every race included in all the test they ran?. Anyway the point being missed is that Richie ,Mitch, and myself are trying to help those who are having trouble identifying true contenders. Even if the win % fell to 85%[nothing or no one gets 100%] it would imho help those folks. True this only the first step but you can't win a race if the winner isn't in the mix. I use this procedure daily and I believe my posted results show this to be a valid procedure. Everyone is free to use what they want so feel free to disagree with us.
Tim

So Cal Al · 03-12-2021, 08:48 PM

Thanks, Tim, for the "chime in". I agree the the top 5 is a very workable starting point, and that further selection work is still necessary to determine the actual horses to bet. I was asking the author of the work for additional information based on the data he uncovered. ITM, it should surprise no one that betting on all of the top 5 would resort in a loss....just wanted to know what the data about it.

03-12-2021, 06:01 PM	#15
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	I will chime in here. I have run multi surveys over several years to verify that the top 5 Prime and Profit ranked horses win up to 90% of races run. I didn't confine myself to major tracks but included tracks like MVR, TDN,WRD.DED DOWNS where the animals running at those track are not the soundest creatures on the planet. I didn't wager on every race nor did I include short fields. in my surveys. I am satisfied that the top 5 ranked horses are still performing to high level. Did anybody believe that Bob Purdy or Doc bet on every race included in all the test they ran?. Anyway the point being missed is that Richie ,Mitch, and myself are trying to help those who are having trouble identifying true contenders. Even if the win % fell to 85%[nothing or no one gets 100%] it would imho help those folks. True this only the first step but you can't win a race if the winner isn't in the mix. I use this procedure daily and I believe my posted results show this to be a valid procedure. Everyone is free to use what they want so feel free to disagree with us. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

03-12-2021, 11:32 AM	#11
rdiam Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 606	Curious in your study how often your 5+ contenders made up more than 50% of the number of runners. I would think a better test would incorporate this statistic. As an extreme example, using the method in a 5 horse field gets you the "contenders" 100% of the time, but that is a bogus stat. Much better to only count the races where your "contenders" make up a maximum of 50% of the field. Thanks. Richard

03-12-2021, 12:01 PM	#12
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	rdiam, Not sure, I was only looking at cards with a p-6 . Most races in a P-6 usually have 8-12 entries. In 85-90% of these races I get it down to 3 main contenders for win and have 75+% of the winners in these. In about 10-15% of the races I have a long shot as a 4th horse. Hope this answers your question. Rmathi

03-12-2021, 03:19 PM	#13
So Cal Al So Cal Al Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: San Diego/ La Quinta Posts: 214	In order to cover the top 5 contenders for 1000 races, the cost is $10 per race 5x2=10x1000=$10,000. Does the total payoff of the 91.9% win rate exceed $10,000? Just wondering!

03-12-2021, 05:16 PM	#14
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	AL, I can not answer that question for two reasons: 1) i would never bet 5 horses in a race and 2) I was looking for P-4, P-5 and P-6 plays. I do have the results for all these races But have never totaled up the win payoffs. I will say that my multi race tickets have been profitable. Rmath,

03-12-2021, 08:48 PM	#16
So Cal Al So Cal Al Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: San Diego/ La Quinta Posts: 214	Thanks, Tim, for the "chime in". I agree the the top 5 is a very workable starting point, and that further selection work is still necessary to determine the actual horses to bet. I was asking the author of the work for additional information based on the data he uncovered. ITM, it should surprise no one that betting on all of the top 5 would resort in a loss....just wanted to know what the data about it.