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10-10-2012, 03:56 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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results of Haw 2nd
Nice call Bill
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10-13-2012, 09:06 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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What you see , Part II
Let us look at a few horse's here that when I used the best perceptor, last 3 comparable, and then when we use the last lines, and see how the race looks so different, and we musst decide which is the way to look at it.
1st a look at Last lines for all horses, bith BL/BL and segement screens and then the Newpace screen shot too.
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10-13-2012, 09:24 AM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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This is where your expertise comes into it, and how you pick your lines, as I have read and been told by people here , that it is always best to use Last line as your 1st choice, unless it has a legitimate reason to be overlooked, such as troubled trip, wrong distance or surface, and even sometimes wrong track. Yet there is strong contigent that swears by the best of last 3 comparable too, as a horse may have a tendency to bounce , or do the good/bad race thing.
So Can we bet the 3 horse and 8 horse to win, maybe even use the 7 horse underneath, thus skipping these, the 6, 5 and 1 horse's ? How bout some thought 's on this, it should be a good race to dissect, and it clearly has the 2 sides of paceline selection in play here. Patrick
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10-13-2012, 12:06 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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With scratches an update
BOTH BL/BL SCREENS
LOOKS LIKE THE 8 HAS IMPROVED, BUT SO HAS THE 7 IN THE SEGEMENTS SCREEN, AND THEN THE 6 TOO, AS THEY ALL HAVE AN 89 SPEED RATING WITHIN LAST 3 RACES SO WHAT DO WE WAGER ON, 8 AND 7 OR 1 AND 6 AND i WILL DO THIS 1 AND 7 WIN BETS 7/ 1 , 6, 8/ 1,4,6,8 TRI 1ST AND 2ND PATRICK
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10-13-2012, 01:38 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Contenders
Hi Patrick
well with the scratches things change I will say that the last line is very important and should always be rated, BUT I also feel that the best of the last three is a better way to win The top 5 TPR horses off the last line only is a great contender selection method but it does not end there Once I have the top 5 horses I then use the best plus or plus within a zero race of the last three lines for these horses only I feel for me that this works much better than 1. being locked into using the last line only 2. blindly using any line in the top 3 just because its the best of any readout. I see lots of wild line choices from people who do this They hit longshots but then lose 6 ,7 ,8 races in a row. I try to use the best method I can to blend using good recent comparable lines and the best of the last 3 plus races This blending lets me win often enough to aviod the emotional damage of losing more than 3 races in a row Doc wrote often that if he lost 3 races in a row he would stop bettting until he could get his mind refocused on what he did correctly when he was in the zone. Only a 6 horse field so the top 5 TPR winning means little here Last edited by Bill V.; 10-13-2012 at 01:40 PM. |
10-27-2012, 02:58 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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keeneland 4th 10/27
Can we trust RDSS2, it has a 20-1 on top, he was 2nd last out closing fast, can he improve 3rd ever race, sure, do you think otherwise?
Do you skip all 2year old races, not a bad idea really, we'll see. 5 and 9 have best speed rating here at 79, way above the others, but 2yrs old improve vastly at times win bets 4,9,10 all nice odds patrick
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