Steps - Contender, Pacelines, Ranking, Betting Decisions, Record Keeping

[Bill V.]

Nice hits and Tim and Mitch

I missed my double 1.11/125 = voucher here at Del Mar Surfside

[Mitch44]

Thanks Bill.
I missed mine also as the 11th was a maiden and a crapshoot.


Hope you had something else today.
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Thanks Bill. Hope my write up helped some folks.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Avery interesting race. I noted that the 1,2 &8 are older horses coming off of lifetime best races. Even thought this is a G3 I have noted that older horse don't normally repeat those efforts. So what to do keep those lines because these are better horses or go shopping for another line. I decided to go shopping knowing full well I might get bite in the butt. My contenders ended up
1 L4
4 L1
5 L5
6 L7 #1APV AND CLASS HORSE SO I'll keep it
7 L2
I will toss the 4 on class basis With about 2 mins to post I'll go with 6wp 1 and 4wp on 5 &6 and toss the 7 based on odds. Now let's see if being cute cost me. Good luck guys.
Tim

Maybe using a #, a space and comma when you post your selections

Nice selection anyway

$6 W-P #1
$4 W-P #5
$4 W-P #6 -

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Thanks Bill.
I missed mine also as the 11th was a maiden and a crapshoot.


Hope you had something else today.
Mitch44

LOL I lucked out cause I already had the
11th race in a pick 4

so I figure i would go for the winner in races 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14

Not to be

[Lt1]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Maybe using a #, a space and comma when you post your selections

Nice selection anyway

$6 W-P #1
$4 W-P #5
$4 W-P #6 -

Attachment 45691

LOL Bill. Does the mean I have to go to the back of the classroom and wear the dunce cap?.

[Mitch44]

BTW that L 7 was 266 days ago. "If your going to make a horse a contender you have to give it every chance to win." So many teachers have said that I'm not sure who originated it.


Sometimes big prices come when you can anticipate a horse to do something new. This stretch out wasn't that hard using the stuff in RDSS. Stretch outs and cut backs generally fool the public.


Mitch44

[Lt1]

Race 10 really provides a wonderful example of meshing both Sartin and non Sartin material. As Mitch pointed out line 7 was run in June of last year which may be cause for concern to some. The way I approached this horse was that I was looking at the #1 APV and Class horse. Looking at his record I saw he was a 9 year old gelding who had raced 48 times winning 18 times and placing another 13 times. In his last 10 races he won 3 and placed 4 times and is the lone million dollar winner in the field. If you pay attention to these types of older geldings at every level you will note they are always involved at the finish of their races. Ok so much for the non Sartin stuff. I was fortunate enough to attend a dozen seminars and met, and hung out with, a good cross section of teaching members in addition to the big 3 of Doc.Jimmy,and Tom B. Everyone of them always hammered home that if you are going to make a horse a contender , you must give it every chance to win. Looking at the pps we see that this horse has never routed normally a problem. Looking more closely we see that 8 of 10 races were at 5 and 5. 5 f. I do not like to project these lines however in this case I also note a 6.5f and 6 f race which I do project. The 6.5f race was run at KD which has a European type of turf course with some unique quirks. I decided to go with the 6f race from Bel[my hometown track]. Now on BL/BL the horse tiers last however on the RX screen it's tiered 3rd.. Now what?. Well it happens that I have a working model for all distances run at GP. What I generally do for sprinters trying to route for the first time is to check the horses %med. Usually sprinters expend too much energy to the 2nd call to win. Not so with this horse. Its'% med for all its' races fits the winning range for routers perfectly. It looks like the type of sprinter who can go long. I then see that since its' last race 34 days ago it has worked 3 times with the last being the golden 5f work out 6 days ago, indicating to me, that the old warrior is ready to roll. Now for a negative the horse ranks 6th in 3rd fraction. Well now I remember a Doc[as well as other teachers] missive that class horses can overcome a lot of things such as pace etc. So here I have the class of the field with more positives then negatives going to pay double digit if it wins. I decide that reward is worth the risk and bet this horse. Fortunately my analysis is correct and it wins paying $13. I guess what I'm trying to point out is that there is more to getting winners then just blindly accepting tier rankings. There are intangibles that allow us to move horses up or down the tiers based on our knowledge and experience.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Lt1

LOL Bill. Does the mean I have to go to the back of the classroom and wear the dunce cap?.

Tim you are not the king of bad grammer by a long shot.
If you every want to get a lesson on bad formatting, spelling and grammar,
just read some old post by me as Binder or Admin.

My late mom used to try to edit my post. After awhile she had to give up.
It was becoming a full time job.
Bill

[Mitch44]

Great summary Tim.


As handicappers we run into the same problems over & over. Such as lay offs, drop downs, cut backs , stretch outs etc. If you can't deal with them then you must pass the race. They generally reward very good and even this horse probably should have paid more. Ortiz rode it so that probably lowered the payoff.


This horse could rate and didn't have a sprinter % Med so the stretch out wasn't a surprise. Trainer is 22% with last out winners. Trainer took over 5 races back and added B last 3 and smartly stretched it out. We tend to overlook consistency , EPS but their both included in the CR & CR+ ratings.


Success comes from analyzing the whole chart of each contender as if you were the trainer.


Mitch44