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Old 05-10-2019, 10:30 AM   #11
tom
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Just a suggestion, for "eyeball class" and not adding to your pace, consider the purse of the race. 1 level would be 20%, based on studies done by Barry Meadow in his new book Skeptical handicapper, so an allowance race with a purse of $10,000 would be 1 level higher than one with a purse of $8,000, even if both are for nw1x.

I guess you could use this like the old class charts from the FUs instead of track classes.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:46 PM   #12
DaveEdwards
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What came first, the chicken or the egg?

Pars don't account for variants but pars are used to determine variants. Say what? Yea run that one around your brain housing group a few times for it to get absorbed.

Yes indeed. May I ask Mitch, is this what you were alluding to in an earlier conversation of ours?
(As a little aside, I have calculated pars for greyhounds before now and found them to be extremely accurate. That said, apart from chasing type dogs, there are enough that run flat out (without pacing themselves) to the end to enable robust figures to be made).


Coupled with the POR scenario accounting for race make-up it makes for a very complicated situation.
I guess with all of the various class categories within a cost level it makes it even harder to formulate pars when some of these races may have a very small sample size.

I wasn't trying to incorporate class into the Sartin Methodology in terms of making any adjustments to any figures. My approach thus far has purely been to get a greater understanding of how the class structure actually works.

Sorry for the delay in responding. I'm often very busy familywise at weekends!
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Old 05-12-2019, 04:05 PM   #13
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So I guess I'm in the position of going through the condition book myself and identifying Clm & Allw overlaps and gaps, same with the Maidens.

I've just looked an equibase results chart and I see no official rating. It looks like a case of buyer beware!
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Old 05-12-2019, 04:16 PM   #14
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And going back to Tim's post, I was thinking about TE as the way to go. I already produce the data in order to calculate %M and so it would be easy enough to add another column to my spreadsheet.

Thanks all.
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Old 05-12-2019, 04:22 PM   #15
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Hi Dave, Here's another Doc pearl of wisdom Horses don't run pars,the horse that wins the race ran par for that race. I haven't worried about pars for over 20 yrs. I let the program take care of anything that needs to be done.
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Old 05-13-2019, 10:53 PM   #16
Mitch44
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Lefty:
In answer to Sartin getting 97% winners using the top 5 Total Energy. I don't doubt that he did but I seriously doubt it can be duplicated by many.

To get that figure encompasses picking perfect contenders. But even with that he eliminated any race with two UNKNOWN factors in a race. Finally this percent(97%) is greatly effected by the type of races that are played.

This is why I said to investigate other factors. For an average player, especially a novice should strive for over 80% for contenders in their top 5. Those more experience 85%.It is very possible to achieve higher percentages with study and discipline.

There are tools and factors within RDSS to achieve those goals. Small samples (20 races) will expose them to you.

Mitch44
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Old 05-13-2019, 11:40 PM   #17
Mitch44
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Dave:

Sorry for not replying sooner as I've been traveling the last couple days without my CP.

I know absolutely nothing about greyhounds and dog racing. I think all their distances are shorter than thoroughbreds. If so their short dashes would be all about speed and little time for any runner other than an E or EP to win.

If it can be measured, an adapted version of Sartin's Total Engery would be an asset.
Pars do work but they also have enough flaws to drive a maker crazy. I guess it depends on what one accepts as a except able margin of error and how much it improves their game.

Another flaw of any par number is that by the time one is developed it is already outdated. This is due to all thoroughbreds turning 1 year older on 1 Jan. of every year. Along with the ability within the new age classes.The POH(winners) is a far more accurate procedure for man made Pars.

But the best of all Pars are created by the contenders within a race. They also represent immediacy, not something earned long ago. This is another reason why contender selection is so critical for success. These Pars also eliminate all that research work that is best implemented with a pre-programmed computer program.

Like Tim(LT1) I don't worry about creating Pars but I thoroughly understand how to employ them. The RDSS program will take care of this for you. Of course an advanced understanding of all this helps to achieve greater success. No different than having graduate degree verses an associate degree. Even with that experience and practical application supersedes book learning and theory.

Mitch44
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Old 05-14-2019, 12:26 AM   #18
Lefty
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Lefty:
In answer to Sartin getting 97% winners using the top 5 Total Energy. I don't doubt that he did but I seriously doubt it can be duplicated by many.

To get that figure encompasses picking perfect contenders. But even with that he eliminated any race with two UNKNOWN factors in a race. Finally this percent(97%) is greatly effected by the type of races that are played.

This is why I said to investigate other factors. For an average player, especially a novice should strive for over 80% for contenders in their top 5. Those more experience 85%.It is very possible to achieve higher percentages with study and discipline.

There are tools and factors within RDSS to achieve those goals. Small samples (20 races) will expose them to you.

Mitch44
Mitch, I don't disagree. But I still think TE is very important and I throw out any horse that has a TE of 6 or more.
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Old 05-14-2019, 10:15 AM   #19
Mitch44
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Lefty:


Don't get me wrong on what I'm saying. I am not saying TE is un-important. Its the springboard for many things an a key element that contributes to many other Factors within the program. It is vital and a must to succeed.

However as far as picking contenders there are other things that will pick proper contenders much faster and just as proficient if not more proficient.

Look at it this way; to get proper TE one must pick a proper pace line for every horse in the race. Now that for most or the majority allows for error and if an error occurs there than proper contenders won't be successful or winning the race.

Additionally the time spent on non-contenders in picking of pace lines is wasted and that time can be more productive applied to other endeavors such as read out interpretation, designing a bet to fit your analysis. etc. There are things that don't rely on a single element and those compounded things are more proficient. The word thing or things is used for simplicity.

If I didn't believe in the power of pace and the three Fractions that compose Total Energy, what am I doing here? Trust me as I am a believer in it.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-14-2019 at 10:19 AM.
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Old 05-14-2019, 02:07 PM   #20
Bill V.
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Te

Mitch, you bring up a very interesting thought,
That 95% of winners within the top 5 total energy that is being mentioned,
The figure of 95% is a little misleading.
What Doc said and which is often misquoted, Is that only when a select group of testers, entered predictive pacelines and here is the key, Doc personally monitored the paceline selections.

Secondly the races that were included in the testing, were also strictly monitored.
The group of testers only included a small group of highly skilled users. This group was selected by Doc, They had to show a keen ability to follow directions consistently.
Lastly, in 1000 races the winner IF the winner was included as a final contender mix of 5 horses, the winner was in the top 5 total energy 95%
of the time
So basically IF the testers followed Doc's strict guidelines the winner of the race was amongst the top 5 total energy.
It is a little bit of the saying what came first the chicken or the egg.
The test showed that the top 5 total energy horses won almost all the races
when no more than 5 or ties contenders were entered after hides
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