Pattern Recognition

[Capcondo]

Hello fellow matchers,

Attached is a race which exhibits a pattern I have seen several times lately resulting in a win. It is the last two lines in the PP's where the horse fights in one of the two lines and shows an off the pace effort in the other line. It's best if both lines come from a fast early pace.

This is a maiden race (it also works in a race for winners) from Los Alamitos in the 8th race on 12/10/15.

The horse won easily resulting in a $14.20 mutual.

The PP's and chart are attached.

LRC 121015 Race 8.pdf



Tim

[The Pook]

Hi Tim,

I read your post last week and made a mental note of what you demonstrated. I have also noticed this before as a good indicator of a nice live play. Seen it work without the races being necessarily back to back, but with fighting and a reversal of running style. Been waiting for one to come along and of course here is an example from todays last day at Parx for 2015.

Eleven races carded of which I found three to bet. Lost one, got a place in another but the one that made the day was the sixth as shown below. Starting to appreciate after many months of doing this the value of patience. It is the hardest thing to do. Wait only for the best of the best. A lock as The Hat used to call it. This one stood out to me as a lock and it worked out.

Pook

[The Pook]

To be clear it wasn't just running style reversal that made the horse a good bet. It had other things going for it like FPLR, OTE when the race looked to run OTE and of course fighting. It even fared well on the tandem screen. The points that you shared above just helped to confirm. Cool.

Pook

[viikinki]

Nice to see you playing and posting, Pook! I thought you went busto :/ MU-forum is pretty quiet nowadays.

[Bill Lyster]

One of our posters that has not been heard from in some while, "For The Lead" often espoused similar analysis, but his focus was who could get to the lead in the first and second call. He concentrated on any horse who was 1st or 2nd at the first call in its last race OR any horse that had finished in the money in its last race. Then he compared all such horses for those that were top three at the first call and second call. I believe at that point he bet value, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, like the Pook said the winner had several other significant factors going for it.

Nonetheless, this is a good example of pattern recognition and one that often repeats. Have you ever looked at the PPs and seen horses that try to go to the lead where that running style is opposite the norm for the horse. They rarely win. Recall that The Hat used to eliminate pressers (in paceless races) who looked to get the lead because they would get there and wonder what to do next, they were out of their normal comfort zone, so they overexerted and had little left for the finish.

Good Example Tim.

[Mark]

Richie discusses this angle in Voodoo #1 thread. These lines appear in the last 4 and must approximate today's projected pace. Go to the website and select Google Site Search. In the search box type "Voodoo". Some really good stuff here and it was done nearly 8 years ago!!

[Capcondo]

Nice hit Pook. Glad to hear you're doing well.

Mark brings up an interesting point which I was not aware of from Richie's voodoo #1 thread. I will start looking at the last four lines to see how the pattern works.

Also, I think it's worthwhile to look at maiden races keeping in mind the horse has to be a total standout or it's a pass. Dec 17th, at FG in the last race, a 2 yo had fought in the lead through the first two calls of 22.1 46.1 58.4 giving up only a length at the stretch. No one in the race could even come close. He paid $30.60 winning easily.

Keep up the good work.

Tim

[viikinki]

Fighting and then giving up in the end is one of the most powerful angles. Ppl see this kind of race as being bad because he "gave up and got tired". Ppl dont realize the energy distribution like The Hat taught us. If in todays race you can project more favorable energy distribution, you might have an excellent bet. I have used this angle in harness as well. Works very nicely. It is interesting to see that sometimes even the drivers doesnt understand energy distribution. I have read many times comments after the race where driver said "wasnt good, just ok, gave up in the end". Well of course he will give up if you go all-out too soon. I personally have not bet maidens but I will start looking at those as well.

[Mark]

If I may say so, it seems to me that Jim Bradshaw used an extensive Database. However, his media was his MIND! The computer he employed was inside his head. Through the use of meditation he allowed his subconscious mind to absorb winning patterns. A significant portion of the Hat Check Blog is dedicated to helping handicappers develop this tremendous resource. The same ability we use everyday in response to specific stimuli, don't put your hand in the fire, is refined to recognize Pace scenarios. Specific scenarios will dictate which Running Style is favored, Early or OTE. The number of Early and EP horses, large or few, will determine the running position at the 1st call the winner must prefer.

I recently bought the North American Indian chants that "the Hat" sent to Richie P and he made available to any subscriber to the Blog back in that day. I can't understand a word spoken but it doesn't matter because the rhythms just settle your mind and create a peaceful receptive state. I listen to them before and during(low) handicapping. They prevent those thoughts of the day from entering my mind and upsetting my concentration. I recommend them Highly! I no longer go back and try to make the winner win in a race I lost. But I keep a Word file of winners' screenshots of the ORIGINAL SCREEN from RDSS2. I am 65 years old and my memory just isn't what it was when I was 50, much less 25.

The Match Up was developed by a man that handicapped and watched 100s of thousands of races during his life. His only tools were the racing form, his eyes and his brilliant mind. The methods and techniques that have come down to us via Richie P are the proven residue of his experience. They are as valid today as they were 20 or 50 years ago. The races are the same, just the horses' and track names have changed.

[RichieP]

This "Voodoo" pattern that both Tim and Pook have beautifully laid out and CASHED on is something to consistently keep your eyes out for.

Mark is correct that it is laid out in the Voodoo thread he mentions above. That thread was started only 4 months after Jim had passed on. His teachings and most importantly his last racing discussions with me (he knew then his time here was short) were VERY fresh in my mind and focused on more advanced lessons he wanted passed on to us such as the Voodoo threads, Minds Eye threads etc.

FWIW if you read each of those 2 subjects "parts" you will see the absolute importance of the "QUIET MIND". I stress this constantly because Jim kept hammering me with it's importance especially moving to these much more advanced and potentially more lucrative lessons. Tim and Pooks beautiful hits show the nice mutuals available in TODAY'S racing environment. Please LOOK carefully at Pook's screenshots, explanation and analysis. It is COMPLETE!

Merry Christmas everyone from my family and "good matching"!
Richie and Karen