Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-24-2013, 09:34 AM   #1
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
betting odds

While recording results this am, I came up with a question that I thought I'd bring up here.

Should we be willing to take betting odds on our picks by the final ranking we give them? Final ranking could be BL/BL, line scores or match ups or as I see people on here, list 4 horses they like, ex: 8-3-5-2 etc.

Should our betting require higher odds on the 4th pick than the 2nd pick or 1st pick? Could we require something like: 2:1 on the top pick, 3:1 on the second pick, 4 or 5:1 on the third pick and 8:1 or higher on the 4th? (Odds listed for example purposes only) From reading on here, many players are requiring odds of better than 5:2 on 2 horses to make a wager. Should that be changed to asking for odds by our individual rankings?

I know from my records (400 races only, small sample) that my top rated horse wins 34% of the time with an average payoff of $7.02. The second ranked horse wins 23% with ave. payoff of $7.66. By the time I get to the 5th rated horse, I only have a win% of 5% but the ave. payoff is $12.44. This is the reason I ask the question.

Ray

PS. I realize I need to do better on line selection or something to get a better win% from all positions.
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 11:01 AM   #2
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Betting odds

Ray, you have the answer to your question in your records.
Your win percentages by rank gives you your answer.
Example: top pick 34% = 2/1 minimum to break even.
2nd pick 23% = 7/2 minimum to break even

your 5th horse at 5% = 20/1 minimum
Some authors say you should have at least a 50% overlay in order to make a bet.
others say it should be higher.

As for paceline selection FTLs guidelines are a very good way to go.
Personally I use the best of the last 3 COMPARABLE for each of my contenders.
Either of these will get you a high percentage of winners in your top 4 or 5 contenders.
From your records I am making the assumption that you are getting around 80 to 85% winners in your top 5.
My suggestion would be to work on your pacelines and try to get a few more of your 3rd, 4th, and 5th horses to move up into your top 2 or 3.
From your post this would be my suggestion.
I hope this will be of some help to you.

PS: If you would like to discuss any of this, feel fre to pm me and we can get together on skype.
rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 03:38 PM   #3
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
odds

Ray, here is a race I played at Kee today. My two main win bets were the #3 at 5/2 and the #10 at 4/1.
I also played a 2.00 wps ticket on the #1 horse since he was in my top 4 and was well over my minimum odds to qualify as a saver.
I also played the 1-3-10 exacta box for a dollar.

I posted this hoping to show you how I make my betting decisions based on the postime odds of my contenders.

Name:  res kee.GIF
Views: 607
Size:  52.2 KB

Name:  Kee r5.GIF
Views: 605
Size:  40.9 KB

Name:  final ods.GIF
Views: 532
Size:  24.0 KB
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 09:42 PM   #4
Rverge
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA.
Posts: 2,531
yea! good win rmath!
__________________
i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.
Rverge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 06:22 AM   #5
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Ray, you have the answer to your question in your records.
Your win percentages by rank gives you your answer.
Example: top pick 34% = 2/1 minimum to break even.
2nd pick 23% = 7/2 minimum to break even

your 5th horse at 5% = 20/1 minimum
Some authors say you should have at least a 50% overlay in order to make a bet.
others say it should be higher.

As for paceline selection FTLs guidelines are a very good way to go.
Personally I use the best of the last 3 COMPARABLE for each of my contenders.
Either of these will get you a high percentage of winners in your top 4 or 5 contenders.
From your records I am making the assumption that you are getting around 80 to 85% winners in your top 5.
My suggestion would be to work on your pacelines and try to get a few more of your 3rd, 4th, and 5th horses to move up into your top 2 or 3.
From your post this would be my suggestion.
I hope this will be of some help to you.

PS: If you would like to discuss any of this, feel fre to pm me and we can get together on skype.
rmath
Thanks for the reply. Wouldn't those %'s reflect betting one horse to win?
I am using a 2 horse win system at the present. I haven't gotten into dutching so am using a 5% of total balance as the amount I bet. Actually I got nervous when the betting got above $20 per race ($10 per horse) and have stayed at $20.

I am trying to look at this betting through a EV point of view. Examples to follow:
If I play my #1 pick to win (34% wins) at 2:1 odds ($6.00) my EV is $0.72. One horse betting.

Now if I go to 2 horse win and use my #1 and #2 picks (34% & 23% wins), ($6.00 and $8.00 pay outs), my EV goes up to $2.16.

However if I use my #1 & #5 pick and still get 2:1 odds & 3:1 odds I have a 0-EV situation. If I want to get "about" the same EV as with my #1 & #2 picks ($2.16), I would have to get 25:1 with my 5th choice, for an EV of $2.20.

I would need 7:1 and 9:1 with my 3 & 4th picks for EV's of $2.20 and $2.28.

All the above is using the win% of my top rated horse, winning 34%. If I wanted to get about the same EV with one horse betting, I would need 4:1 odds, while holding the 34%. (+EV $2.08)

If I increase the odds I am willing to accept on the #1 pick to 5:2 (2.5:1) then my #2 pick can drop from 3:1 to 5:2 and still have a +EV of $2.27. At 5.2, my 3rd and 4th rated horses drop to 6:1 and 7:1 while having +EV's of $2.26 and $2.14 respectfully. The 5th choice drops to 20:1 with an +EV of just over $2.00 ($2.04).

Note I continue to use the %'s that my readouts give for the winning chances of each horses rating. If I can get the %'s higher in the #1 position, I should be able to use a lower odds horse and still maintain a fairly constant EV across the betting spectrum.

Sorry for this being so long but I wanted to post it all to see if what I am looking at and how I am going about my EV formula is correct. I am not the best at math, rmath. Now to read your second post.

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 06:43 AM   #6
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
nice win

rmath,

I have not gotten into exotic betting very much but think your approach is very interesting. Actually, I suck at exotic betting, always have. To many 1st and 3rd's or 2nd and 3rd's. I have read, but only once, the 55% solution but need more reading on exacta or double betting. I don't think I have ever done well trying to play the pick 3.

I am just getting back into horse handicapping since being away from it for about 10 years.

I would like to get my winning %'s up a bit higher in my 2 horse win betting, then add some exotic betting, but will also need a separate bankroll for that.

I don't do much 1 horse betting either. Although at one time I thought betting 2 horses was crazy. However, since coming to this site it has been the best bankroll builder, at least for me.

Looking forward to viewing the Breeder's Cup races. Might have a win bet or 2 on them.

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 07:11 AM   #7
Segwin
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
Thumbs up

Good job rmath!
__________________
Terry
Segwin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 10:10 AM   #8
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Thanks

Thanks you guys.
Ray, Since you are not comfortable with betting more than 20.00 in a race I would suggest that you follow Docs guidelines and bet 60-40 on two horses.
This is what I do if both of my top 2 horses are at acceptable odds with one minute to post. If your top horse is too low of odds, say 6/5 then you have to decide if you want play your 2nd , third or 4th horses if their odds are high enough to make the risk worthwhile.
Personally when my #1 horse is to low of odds I pass the race.
For me this is the best way to go as my top horse hits at 40% rate.
I usually only get 3 or 4 possible plays at any one track each day.

I have very strict guidelines that I follow to find a playable race.
1) Only non maiden races with a minimum of 8 betting interests.
2) only races from 5.5f to 8.5f.
3) if two or more of my final 5 horses have not run at todays distance ( sprint or route) then I up my minimum odds OR pass the race.

Ray, I am like you. Most of my bets are win & place only.
I only play in the exotic when the odds on my top two are above 4/1 and my 3rd, 4th or 5th horse or horses are at least 10/1.
This way you have a good chance to make a nice score.

Good luck.
rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2013, 06:51 AM   #9
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Thanks you guys.
Ray, Since you are not comfortable with betting more than 20.00 in a race I would suggest that you follow Docs guidelines and bet 60-40 on two horses.
The problem for me, is that with 60 - 40, on the site where I bet, the win bet goes from $10 to $15. I would have to make multiple lower bets most of the time. But I may have to deal with that, if it would help in bankroll building.
This is what I do if both of my top 2 horses are at acceptable odds with one minute to post. If your top horse is too low of odds, say 6/5 then you have to decide if you want play your 2nd , third or 4th horses if their odds are high enough to make the risk worthwhile.
Personally when my #1 horse is to low of odds I pass the race.
For me this is the best way to go as my top horse hits at 40% rate.
I usually only get 3 or 4 possible plays at any one track each day.
40% on your top horse, I need to work on my line selection. I am only playing one track at this time and find days, if I am too picky about how to play, I may not even play a race.

I have very strict guidelines that I follow to find a playable race.
1) Only non maiden races with a minimum of 8 betting interests.
2) only races from 5.5f to 8.5f.
3) if two or more of my final 5 horses have not run at todays distance ( sprint or route) then I up my minimum odds OR pass the race.
This is why I would most likely need to play more than one track. At FL, I'd be hard pressed to get 2-3 races to handicap and then find 1-2 of them with un-bettable odds. I do like your idea of consistant guidelines.

Ray, I am like you. Most of my bets are win & place only.
I only play in the exotic when the odds on my top two are above 4/1 and my 3rd, 4th or 5th horse or horses are at least 10/1.
This way you have a good chance to make a nice score.
I do like this idea. Maybe I can use it some.

Good luck.
rmath
Good luck to you as well. Thanks for the extremely valuable ideas and reply's.

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2013, 11:57 AM   #10
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Ray,

Most ADW's that I know of have some method of specifying a custom win bet unit, not just the default increments $10 then $15 and nothing in between or below (e.g. $20 unit total dutched 60/40 = $12 and $8). Even if it means typing in the amount each time, there's usually some way.

Which ADW are you using?

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Betting Practice Case Example - Pktruckdriver Ted Craven July Contest 13 07-29-2012 03:28 PM
Betting...DO's and DON'T's For The Lead General Discussion 2 07-05-2012 03:40 PM
New Pace rmath General Discussion 18 11-10-2011 02:37 PM
Tote-X-Ray update SilentRun RDSS 2 10-27-2009 03:30 PM
Release Notes - Version 0.98.5 Ted Craven RDSS Info, Reference 5 12-31-2008 10:56 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:52 PM.